Week 16 has arrived which means Christmas is around the corner and also the playoffs. Coming off a 3-0 Week 15 prop article and 5-1 since posting on FakePigskin, I’m looking to finish off the regular season strong these next two weeks. This week I focus on the Buffalo @ New England game which is on Saturday at 4:30 pm.
2019 NFL Season Record:
- 40-14 (Spreads & Totals)
- 22-5 (Run)
- 43-19 (Props)
- All plays documented on my YouTube channel System Capping
Buffalo @ New England
Tom Brady Under 229.5 Passing Yards
This one caught my eye right away especially after Tom’s performance last week. Coming off a 128 yard and 4.4 yards per pass attempt vs a bad Bengals team, this isn’t the same New England offense or the same Tom Brady. Tom’s passer rating has been under 90% in his last 6 starts and only threw over this number of 229 twice out of those 6. Buffalo comes into town with one of the best defenses vs the pass, ranked 3rd and allowing 190.5 yards per game. I expect a lot of short passes in this one, as Tre’Davious White will eliminate whoever he is covering and New England will look to run and play a short game here. Play the Under here and don’t look back.
Josh Allen Under 189.5 Passing Yards
I’m sure most of you thought this was going to be the next prop bet and you were right. Yes I am on the under in this game and these two prop plays would tell you that. Josh has been very average this season and especially the past two weeks vs good defenses, averaging a passer rating of 63.5% and a total of 285 yards. Last time out vs New England he threw for 153 yards in Buffalo so I don’t see anything different this time on the road. Roll with the under here as well.
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John Brown Under 54.5 Total Yards
Coming off a solid performance vs the Steelers finishing with 7 rec for 99 yards, John will be running into the best corner in the league Stephon Gilmore. Pittsburgh didn’t have a shut down guy, and that’s why John was able to show up big here. Prior to last week John was struggling with a total of 8 receptions for 91 yards over three weeks. Gilmore should be on him most of the game which means a bad game for John Brown. Play the under 54.5 total yards with confidence.
Good luck this weekend guys, Christmas came early with a triple header on Saturday followed by the regular Sunday games.
Bet smart & know your limits.