Fantasy Football Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty

Fantasy Football Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty

This report presents a reasonably comprehensive landscape for week 15 player rankings in Non-PPR, PPR, and Half Point PPR Leagues. I combined all together rankings, which I call my all in one ranking (AIO).  I believe that rankings can be more than lists and quick numbers. Fantasy Football Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty.


Vegas Information

Therefore, I begin with the current Vegas views of the Week 15 games. We can “see” the predicted winners (more fantasy points!) vs. losers (fewer fantasy points). Also, the level of passing can be determined by the total points from Vegas.

The games with the highest total points should yield a lot of excellent fantasy points. (Shoot-Out). Games labeled low scoring should have less scoring and passing. Below-Average and Above-Average games are also marked.

These labels are a great tiebreaker between similarly ranked players for your lineups! Also useful in DFS stacking where you might force players into your DFS plays from High Shoot-out games.

OAK vs JAC/ CLE vs ARI/ TB vs DET are games in this context that should/might/can yield more points than maybe Vegas predicts using Defense Metrics (see below). 

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Defense Against the Position (DAPs) Metrics

The following tables highlight the Week 15 Match-Ups in the context of each team’s opponents, DAPS. I give 2 views for analysis. The DAPs measure fantasy point surrendered over the first 14 weeks at the position. Easy to Hard (Green to Red).

An overall DAP landscape marked colorization and DAP type. We can have Easy defenses (Green), Above Average Easy defenses (Light Green), Below Average Tough defenses (light red), and Very Tough Defense (Red) DAPs on a scale of 100 to 0 (Easy vs. Tough).

  • Deeper Positional DAPs can spot flaws in tough defenses.
  • Also, extreme weakness in weak defense.
  • Find the extremes as use for week 15 lineups or DFS adjustments. 

I sorted by the overall OFF DAP (Offenses DAP), and that revealed that TB/ARI/MIA/DET/OAK/HOU/CAR (GREEN) are seemingly effortless teams to fight.

PIT/BAL/SF/NE/DEN (RED) are the opposite teams and are thought to be the toughest teams to face.

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Interesting Fun Facts for DFS etc.

  • Easiest TB except the toughest in RB DAP- 7 DAP? 
  • KC below average but so easy to RBs 75 RB DAP?
  • CAR/LAC/BUF/CHI Tough? except for the RB at 96/65/55/69 RB DAPs
  • MIN seems tough? But 77 WR DAP?
  • CIN Easy except for RB / TE DAP
  • GB/ARI/WAS/OAK/HOU 80 Plus TE DAPs. All-day Play. 
  • Extremes are Key

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Visual View of Week 15 DAP Landscapes

More to the teams playing the easy defenses.

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Defense Against the Position (DAPs) Metrics Weeks 14 to 16 Bonus Fun Metrics

Focus on the patterns in the next 2 weeks. Easy Combos should be used for waivers etc.

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Vegas Predicted Game Scripts vs. DAPs Combinational Landscape

The following figures present the Vegas view with the DAPs of the teams playing in a week 15.  Does the Vegas view support the DAP metrics?

The intersection of these data streams can provide direction to lineups, and DFS plays as well. 

These figures highlight the landscapes for week 15. Fantasy Football Week 15 Rankings.

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Vegas with DAP Metrics Intersections

Use these charts to plan week 15 seasonal lineups and DFS plays. Hunt for these Hot-spots for key DFS moves/Trade/Waivers.

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HIGH Shoot-Out Week 15 Games

None  🙁

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Above Average Scoring Week 15 Games

I consider the DAPs above 70 in a strong background deserve extra thoughts. I use top-down landscape analysis using the Vegas suggestions with DAPs. See the real scripts below.

See the real scripts below. 

Example: SEA vs. CAR – SEA fierce QB/TE landscapes etc. CAR gets a tough RB/QB DAP. Game could be lower scoring than Vegas thinks.

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Below Average Scoring Week 15 Games

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Low Scoring Week 15 Games

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Team Player Rankings Averages Week 15

My Landscape fantasy painting for week 15 also includes an overview of each team and a grand player FSP Ranking (Fantasy Sports Professor Rankings) average. These rankings should move you to the top teams and away from the lower teams.

In beginning my weekly rankings, I obviously use VEGAs Metrics and DAPs (See Above). Also, I calculate all players I rank in the week and get the average FSP Ranking. The raw averages and scaled averages give us a beautiful Team Level landscape, which is useful. I think about generating DFS and seasonal lineups.

In general, these metric points to the direction of my choices on average. DFS Stacks might be better within positive teams this week.

I highlighted the week 15 high average teams Bright Purple vs. low teams Red Stained.  My approach is to not overempasize Vegas and DAPs in my Rankings Gumbo to figure out the player talent levels. But, I then tiebreak with Vegas/DAPs. Talent is first then other metrics. I added a scaled metric to visualize the team in comparison to league averages this week. 

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Visual Plot for Week 15 Team Scaled FSP Ranks

The plot lets you see the differences in a visual way. Note NO vs SF is one and two but this week the difference is slight between the two in a vacuum.  Note WAS/CHI/NYG/NYJ are off in their own space. Caution using players from these teams. 

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Uncertainty Levels for Each Player and Team

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

  • In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in doubt, you cannot predict the likelihood of a future result.
  • Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
  • Risks can be measured and quantified, while uncertainty cannot.
  • You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty, you can’t.
  • Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty

Conclusion:

  • Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them.
  • Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience.
  • However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
  • *https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source article explains risk vs uncertainty

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Interpretation of TEAM UNC Levels

Remember high uncertainty only means the range of outcomes is large. Thus rankings of players that are highly uncertain should be treated with caution. It does not mean they are low ranked but my rankings would/could be less accurate!

You can have highly ranked, and uncertain players vs. a high ranked low unpredictable players. Your confidence should be higher with the lower unpredictable players.

In DFS, these players will tend to be solid cash game selections. The high ranked players with high uncertainty are more fitting to tournament DFS plays. 


Uncertainty Levels for Week 15 Teams

I use the uncertainty levels and determine the counts of players ranked as High, Avg, and Low uncertainty. The % of each type of uncertainty is then calculated as %H, %A and %L.

The High H/L metric implies a team with players of higher week 15 uncertainty, whereas the lower parameters suggest lower uncertainty exists. Red Colorized Teams are more uncertain this week!

I annotated for week 15 the teams

  • Low in uncertainty ( green colorization)
  • DEN/DAL/SF/CAR/DET/LAC/TEN
  • High in uncertainty (red colorization)
  • NYJ and PHI extremes in uncertainty

The table and graph display the week 15 Team UNC levels for analysis. In general, move to low uncertainty teams with highly ranked players. Fantasy Football Week 15 Rankings.

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The Plot of Week 15 Uncertainty Teams

Nice Visual for UNC levels. Focus on these for DFS move to the lower UNC teams if all else is equal! Extremes in teams (NYJ/PHI vs DEN/DAL/SF/CAR) etc and implies caution as your plays this week.

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Fantasy Football Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty

I present my week 15 FSP rankings with UNC levels for all positions. These average rankings (end column) are sorted High (Purple) to Low (Yellow). I combine my PPR/HALF PPR/NonPPR rankings for an all in one (AIO) experience. There is research that suggest it may be better for fantasy players to see/use a global ranking.

Additionally, I list the player’s rankings with their UNC level of High/Avg/Low. Combining all league types leads to different UNC levels. I show you the complete view of your analysis.

The DST/K/QB are the same under any scoring system, and thus, they have only one UNC level for week 15.

RB/TE/WR will and can have multiple views of week 15 FSP rankings and UNC levels. Use for more in-depth analysis.

Overall, use these metrics for tiebreakers, DFS cash vs tournament decisions, and lineup selections.

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DST, K, and QBs

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Running Backs

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Tight Ends

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Wide Receivers

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Team Level Fantasy Football Week 15 Rankings With Uncertainty

Players within their team environment is shown below.  These Team level FSP rankings with UNC levels view spot pecking orders, usages within the positions, and team strengths and weaknesses. Stroll through and get the vibes for the team! I like to roll through and note the averages and green colorizations.

All sections should be in contexts of VEGAS/DAP/UNC levels.

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