NFL 6-Pack: Week 12 ATS Picks

 

Were back! Maybe you missed us. Maybe you had no clue we were gone. Either way we have our favorite Week 12 ATS Picks.

Kyle & I took last week off from writing the article for an introspective gambling retreat around the world. The point of this was to look at our picks, our core beliefs, and what’s happening currently in the NFL to gain a better understanding of the lines and the public’s perception for the remaining weeks of the season.

So, by now, you may be thinking “did that really happen?”, which would be completely fair because none if it did… except that part about us winning you more money!

The final 6-7 weeks of the season are in play and Turkey Day is right around the corner. There’s no better time of the year to break your losing streak and start winning money.

Although we took a hiatus last week, I still tweeted out my picks here and was able to go 3-0 on the week. I also put in there a bonus bet that also hit! Twas a good week for me and a quiet week for Kyle.

Let’s see what week 12 has on the docket:

Aaron’s Picks

Last Week: 3-0-0
Season to Date: 18-13-2

Philadelphia Eagles -1 vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Eagles are home in Philly after a tough loss last week in the Super Bowl 52 rematch with the Patriots. The Seahawks are traveling to the East Coast, to play a ~10am game their time, coming off an emotional road win in San Fran. This has all the makings of a Philly win.

I love the Seahawks and think they are poised for a deep run in the playoffs, but there’s a much better than 50% chance the Eagles win this game. Take the Eagles with the points or at -115 for some easy money.

Pick: Eagles -1

Green Bay Packers +3.5 @ San Francisco 49ers

So, you’re telling me the 8-2 Packers, and Aaron Rodgers, are getting more than a FG in a game? I’ll take that all day. Sure, the Niners are 9-1, but are they really that good? They beat a young Cardinals team by 3, lost to the Seahawks, then almost lost to the Cards last week. I wouldn’t call this a tail slide, but they are hitting some mid-season struggles.

There was a lot of talk about their soft schedule early, and we could be seeing the result of that now. They’ve been banged up to be fair, but everyone isn’t magically healthy this week. The Niners biggest weapon on defense is their pass rush (top 3 in the league. The Packers offensive line is top 3 in pass blocking. That’s an even matchup on paper and enough for me to side with the legendary, hall of fame quarterback in Rodgers over Jimmy G.

Give me the points and give me another solid football game!

Pick: Packers +3.5

Los Angeles Rams +3 vs. Baltimore Ravens

Are you serious, Aaron? Going against three of the top 5 teams in the league this week? This one hurts a bit, since I’ve been burned by the Rams a couple of times this year, but they have to start turning this ship around. It was almost 1 year ago this weekend in which the Rams and Chiefs faced off on Monday Night Football and played a game for the ages. The Rams won that game 54-51… we can only hope for something close to this again. The Rams, and McVay, are good in primetime. Lamar Jackson has been everything and more this year, but he’s due for a dud. I don’t love betting against elite quarterbacks, but the Ravens have beaten the Seahawks, Patriots, and the Texans in the past 5 weeks… all by double-digit points.

The Rams have one of the best defensive lines in football and the best defensive player in football. Aaron Donald… ok, Aaron is picking 2 teams with Aaron’s this week… little conceited don’t ya think? I think Aaron Donald personally puts this defense on his shoulders and limits Jackson on the ground this week. He’s going to disrupt the pocket, force some errand throws, and get the turnovers the Rams need to pull out a win at home.

Pick: Rams +3

Kyle’s Picks

Last Week: 0-0-0
Season to Date:  11-18-1

Cleveland Browns – 10.5 vs Miami Dolphins

Opinions have shifted dramatically around the Browns since the pre-season. They have been a mess on both sides of the ball, Odell Beckham has let down fantasy owners and Baker has done a lot less dancing. That said, the version many expected to see back in August are about to make an appearance.

Miami is in the bottom five for pass DVOA and rank dead last in rush defense DVOA. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are going to have a field day on Sunday. The loss of Myles Garrett will be felt but the Browns defense should be stout enough to withstand it this week.

The Dolphins had been a cover machine up until last week. That combined with the Browns struggles have actually made this line shorter that it should be. Look for Baker to dance early and often on Sunday covering this number and then some!

Pick: Cleveland -10.5

Denver Broncos +4 at Buffalo Bills

This number has dropped some since opening at 5.5 but i’m still happy to take it at 4. We saw what this team is capable is last week against Minnesota even though they couldn’t finish the task.The Broncos have been cover machines, cashing bettors in five of their last 6 contests. The switch to Brandon Allen has made this team better. He avoids costly turnovers and keeps the offense rolling.

Buffalo returns home off a thumping of the Miami Dolphins. It was only their second cover over their last five games. The other cover in that span came against the Redskins. Miami and Washington are the two worst teams in the NFL.

I expect this game to be a close one that has a great chance to go under the total of 37. A late field goal should decide this one with the Broncos having a real shot at getting the win on the field. I don’t hate a sprinkle on the ML if you’re so inclined. For the purposes of this article I will gobble up the points.

Pick: Denver +4

New England Patriots -6 vs Dallas Cowboys

I’m giving less than a touchdown with the Patriots in Foxborough? Sign me up! The Patriots have been prone to getting gashed on the ground. You’d think the Cowboys would be a great team to take advantage of that weakness. The thing about Dallas is they have been a team that thrives with it’s passing game despite paying Ezekiel Elliott this off-season. Stephon Gillmore will give Amari Cooper issues. Michael Gallup and Randal Cobb come into this game banged up.

Like Dallas, New England pass catchers are banged up. N’Keal Harry should play a big role in this contest after catching three passes in his debut last week. They will also need a strong effort from Sony Michel and James White this week.

For me this a contest between Bill Belichick and the Clapper Jason Garrett. That is no contest. I trust TB12 and company do enough to win by a touchdown or more.

Pick: Patriots -6

While we only pick three games each week a few other lines stood out to me if you’re looking more picks! Philadelphia +1, New York Jets 3, and the Rams +3 stood out. Fading Seattle and Baltimore especially is a scary proposition but is something I would do this week!

Good luck in Week 12!

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