NFL 6-pack: Week 10 NFL Against the Spread

Baker Mayfield

Looking for NFL against the spread picks for Week 10 of the NFL season? Look no further! Kyle Robert and I are here each and every week to give you our thoughts on our favorite lines of the week.

Aaron had his first winless week last week going 0-3, while Kyle finished 1-2 picking the Ravens to upset the Patriots. Aaron wrote about the Ravens winning, but still picked the Pats. It makes sense – don’t question it.

Week 9 Results:

Aaron: 0-3-0

Kyle: 1-2-0

Season Results:

Aaron: 13-12-2

Kyle: 10-17-0

We’re going to skip the recap from last week because you don’t need to know about why we went 1-5 collectively. All you need to know is that regression is on our side and we have some wins for you this week. Kyle’s earned the right to go first, so without further ado let’s take a look at this week’s 6-pack!

Kyle’s Picks

Cleveland Browns -3 vs Buffalo Bills

The Browns are an absolute mess. After entering the year with lofty expectations they have underwhelmed on almost every account. Then last week when everyone wanted to buy in on them facing Brandon Allen and the Broncos they lost on the field! Now they return home to face a Bills team that is 6-2.

So what are we doing this week? We are backing the Wet Bandit look-alike contest winner himself Baker Mayfield and his Cleveland Browns. This line has gone from Browns -2.5 to Browns -3 despite as of Wednesday, 74% of the tickets and 66% of the money coming in on Buffalo.

The Browns have done one thing well all season long, run the dang ball. Oh, and Buffalo has been awful against opposing rushers. They allowed 108 yards to Adrian Peterson last week. This was on the heels of Jordan Howard rushing for 96 yards and Miles Sanders rushing for another 74. Look for Nick Chubb and the reinstated Kareem Hunt to have a field day.

Pick: Browns -3

Cincinnati Bengals +10  vs Baltimore Ravens

I’m not sure what my fascination with Ohio is this week but I’m backing another orange team from the state. The Bengals like the Browns are not good. Cincinnati is making a quarterback change from Andy Dalton to Ryan Finley. It’s a likely downgrade but Cincinnati needs to figure out what they have in the rookie before turning their attention to the NFL Draft.

As for their opponent? The Baltimore Ravens come into this game after a massive prime time victory over the New England Patriots. A team that has been the class of the AFC and had not lost up until that point.

So why back the Bengals? First, their getting double-digit points at home. The Ravens are slightly overvalued after their impressive road victory. Back on the road for a second straight week is a tough ask for any team. Now, I’m by no means expecting the Bengals to win this week but I expect this game to be closer than the line is suggesting.

Pick: Bengals +10

Chicago Bears -2.5 vs Detroit Lions

Sticking with my garbage teams that wear orange theme, I am backing the Chicago Bears this week. A Bears team that was only able to muster 9 yards of total offense in the first half against the Philadelphia Eagles a week ago.

The Detroit Lions come to town after a four quarters battle on the west coast against the Oakland Raiders. Despite being better than their record might indicate, the Lions have lost a few games thanks to Matt Patricia and his highly questionable coaching decisions. 

It is scary to back a team lead by Mitchell Trubisky but I’m happy to do it this week. Take the Bears to not only win but cover the 2.5 at home this week.

Pick: Bears -2.5

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Aaron’s Picks

Atlanta Falcons +13.5 @ New Orleans Saints

1-7 on the road against 7-1… I get why the line is so high. The fact that Vegas won’t set it at 14 or 14.5 tells me a lot. Regardless of their records, this is a division rivalry that has produced some great games overs the past 5 years. The Saints have won 3 of the last 5, but none by more than 14 points. Matt Ryan and company are still producing gaudy passing numbers (1st in the league) and Ryan excels in domes.

Alvin Kamara returns this week, but Latavius Murray should still have a role. I see the Saints executing their run-first, pass-as-needed offense in this game and not running away with it. The Falcons have the firepower to keep it close, whether that’s in garbage time or throughout the game. In this spot, I’m taking the best passing offense getting double-digit points 75% of the time.

Pick: Falcons +13.5

Seattle Seahawks +6.5 @ San Francisco 49ers

Going against the “best” team in the league right now is one of the easiest picks of the week for me. Seattle is one of the best teams in the league and there are many arguments to put them in the top 5 along side New England, San Fran, Baltimore, New Orleans and Green Bay. They have the likely MVP in Russell Wilson and a great running game with Chris Carson. Seattle’s biggest weakness is passing defense.

San Fran wins games by running the ball. The Seahawks have a solid line and amazing linebackers. If Seattle can get up early and control this game, I could see them stealing the win in SF. If they force the Niners into a shootout, I feel comfortable that they keep this game extremely close. The Niners are the 2nd best rushing offense in the league, but 24th in passing. Seattle is 7th and 10th overall, respectively. This is way too many points for a matchup of goliaths.

Pick: Seahawks +6

Buffalo Bills +3 @ Cleveland Browns

I’m doing the same thing as last week here. I talked about the Ravens beating the Patriots, yet I picked the Pats and lost. This week, I have to put my money on the Bills who are the far superior team. I’ve picked the Browns in 3 out of 9 weeks and lost all 3 times. I’ve picked against them twice and won both of those times. I’m making it even this week. Not much else to say about this game where a top 10 team plays a bottom 10 team… I’m taking the much better team with the points.

Pick: Bills +3

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