WEEK 9 MILLY MAKER PLAYS

Week 9 looks like a lower scoring slate on paper than previous weeks. Only 5 teams are projected over 24 points this Sunday. The biggest favorite is BUF who will host WAS at home as 9 point favorites. James Conner DNP Wednesday after injuring his shoulder on MNF. Thielen is back in practice. Keep an eye on Davante Adams and Keenan Allen on the mend as well. 

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ. 

QB

Aaron Rodgers, $6900, Green Bay Packers

7% projected ownership

The Chargers are currently top 7 in defense in DKPts allowed to opposing QBs. That’s bad for Rodgers…what’s good though, is him coming off back-to-back outings of 30 and 46 DKPt games. With the likely return of his top WR Adams, I like taking a chance on a gamebreaker at low ownership. The Packers are expected to score 26.25 points Sunday, which is 4th highest. I like pairing him with AJ here who is absolute YAC lightning right now. 

Matthew Stafford, $6800, Detroit Lions

8% projected ownership

Coming off back to back 3+ passing touchdown performances, I would expect his ownership to be higher but either way I’m interested in this play. The Lions are sporting a healthy 24.5 implied team total on the road against the Raiders. The Raiders give up the 2nd most DKPts to opposing QBs (25.1 per game/avg.) Oakland is 14th best against opposing running back FPts allowed. 

Russell Wilson, $7100, Seattle Seahawks

13% projected ownership

Russ projects to be somewhat chalky in a great matchup against the Bucs. The Bucs’ defense has been proven to be a reverse funnel, having ranked 6th in QB DVOA but 26th in Rushing DVOA. We have seen Russ do whatever’s needed with his on-the-fly adaptability. The Seahawks have the highest implied team total on the slate, with 28. Remember a couple of weeks ago when a very chalky Ryan/Hooper stack took down the Milly? I could see a repeat here, with getting creative at other positions.  

Chalk QB:

Carr

Also Consider: 

Allen, Darnold, Cousins, Trubisky

Fade:

Baker

RB

Josh Jacobs, $6500, Oakland Raiders

12% projected ownership

Jacobs played his second highest snap rate of the season last week after not practicing till Friday. This week, he’s logged a limited practice on Thursday already, which would implicate maybe this is more of a Mark Andrewsesque injury management thing. The Raiders are projected with a 26.25 team total (2nd highest.) The Lions are allowing 32.5 DKPts to opposing running backs (2nd worst.)

Phillip Lindsay, $5300, Denver Broncos

10% projected ownership

So the statuesque, Joe Flacco, will miss this game with a neck injury after calling out the play calling during a presser. 3rd string backup, Brandon Allen, will make his first professional start after spending time as a backup with 3 other teams. I expect the Broncos to lean even more heavily on the run, given their QB situation. The visiting Browns give up an avg of 26.8 FPts to opposing RB (11th worst on the season) and over the last 4 weeks rank 3rd worst against the run. 

Chalk RB:

Jaylen Samuels (everydown back at $4000), Cook, CMC, AJ, Chubb

Also Consider:

Howard

WR

JuJu Smith-Schuster, $6300, Pittsburgh Steelers

9% projected ownership

Volume is king in DFS. With James Conner listed as Doubtful Sunday, I expect the Steelers to turn more to the passing game. JuJu is still relatively cheap and the Colts are 12th worst against wide receivers over the last 4 weeks. 

Chalk WR:

Lockett, Godwin, Evans

Also Consider:

Preston Williams, Diggs

TE:

Hunter Henry, $6000, Los Angeles Chargers

10% projected ownership

Of all the big name tight ends this week, Henry has the lowest projected ownership.  He’s seeing close to 20% of the Rivers’ targets as well. Over the last 4 weeks, Green Bay has given up the 3rd most fantasy points to the position.   

Chalk TE:

Ertz, Waller, Kelce

DST:

CLE, BUF, PIT, PHI

Please Follow me on Twitter @dookiehogue and good luck this week!