NFL 6-pack: Week 9 NFL Against the Spread

Looking for NFL against the spread picks for Week 9 of the NFL season? Look no further! Kyle Robert and I are here each and every week to give you our thoughts on our favorite lines of the week.

Thus far, Aaron has been far superior (written by Aaron himself). Kyle hasn’t done so hot, but he truly knows the game so he is due for a fire-hot streak at some point.

Week 8 Results:

Aaron: 1-1-1

Kyle: 0-3-0

Season Results:

Aaron: 13-9-2

Kyle: 9-15-0

I’ve (Aaron) mentioned this before, but my picks are in order of confidence. Based on this year, and my historical picks, you should be all over my 1st two picks and strongly consider my 3rd. Let’s take a quick look at performance YTD (and career dating back to 2017):

1st pick: 4-3-1 (23-12-1)

2nd pick: 7-0-1 (21-13-2)

3rd pick: 2-6-0 (15-21-0)

My pick of the week hasn’t done as well as I’ve done historically (66% win rate), but I have also hit 3/3 “bonus bets” including Clowney’s sack last week at Atlanta. Seattle managed a push against the Matt Ryan-less Falcons, which is disappointing but at least it’s not a loss.

The Chargers took down the Bears in Chicago for an easy cover. And the Jets just can’t get out of their own way, turning the ball over 3 times on possessions where they could have made this a game. This Thursday night game was the 1st I bet this season and I hit all 3 of my bets: Cardinals +10.5, Over 43.5, and the parlay of the two. Let’s keep the momentum going in our week 9 picks:

Aaron’s Picks

Cleveland -4 @ Denver Broncos

Baker Mayfield and the Browns are a mess – I get it, you get it, the world gets it. The Broncos are a well-rounded team, that just lost their “above-average” quarterback who was once “elite”. Joe Flacco is a very serviceable quarterback and this team just lost Emmanuel Sanders. Brandon Allen will be making his first career start… and that typically doesn’t go well if you aren’t well-prepared. I have no idea how Allen has been practicing this season, but I can imagine him not being 100% ready for this game.

Let’s focus on the Browns for a second… I’ve written about them a lot this year. I’ve taken them and lost, and I’ve bet against them and won. The biggest thing they have going for them on the defensive side of the ball is their pass rush. Anyone know a good way to fluster a rookie quarterback? Blitz the heck out of them… that’s how! Allen has some legs to show off, but I can see the Browns defense causing 2-3 turnovers easily in this game.

Continuing to the Baker Mayfield and offensive drama that has surrounded this team, and you can see how this team is ready for an offensive explosion. Baker isn’t a #1 overall pick that is going to flop – he is a legit quarterback. He’s had his bumps & bruises this year, but I think he comes out to make a statement in this game. Baker, Chubb, and OBJ all go off as the Browns route the Broncos by double-digits in Denver.

Pick: Browns -4

Over 41.5 – Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles

I love the Eagles in this game as well, but the over is far too tempting to pass up. We have two things going for us in the public eye here: 1) The Bears defense is still perceived as elite, when they are actually just above-average and 2) the Eagles slow start is still being remembered by all. I may be leaning too hard on the Week 8 Eagles, but I think they are back. They are starting to get healthy and their offense is starting to click.

They just routed the Bills, in Buffalo, which is no easy task. I see the Eagles coming out again and making a statement this week against an extremely-average Bears team. The Bears offense has showed up a handful of times over the past two years and they put up fireworks when it happens. Whether the Bears are playing from behind, or trying to score to keep a big lead on the Eagles, I see this going over 45-50 points.

Pick: Over 41.5

New England Patriots -3 @ Baltimore Ravens

I’m going a little non-traditional for pick #3 this week. I actually believe the Ravens match-up nicely with the Pats based on their rushing-passing attack. The Patriots may be the best cover team of the decade. Harbaugh has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game, and you can surely bet they will attack the Pats on the ground, where New England has “struggled” this year.

On the flip side, Belichick is likely the best game planner to ever coach the game. He will likely understand this and prepare his team to hunker down up front and be ready for the run. The Pats offense hasn’t really taken off this year, but Baltimore’s secondary has been ripe for the picking. With Sanu another week into this offense, I see this as a potential breakout game for Brady and the Pats’ receivers.

History suggests you fade me here, but I’m picking against my gut this week… so maybe don’t?

Pick: Pats -3

Against the Spread

Steve Flynn – USA TODAY Sports

Kyle’s Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 at Seattle Seahawks

It can be very difficult to back a quarterback that can be as erratic as Jameis Winston but that is what I am doing this week. Despite being on the road this actually a great spot to ride with the Buccaneers. 

Offensively Tampa Bay should be able to take advantage of questionable Seattle secondary that is currently 19th in DVOA against the pass. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans should feast in this contest. 

Defensively the Buccaneers are set up perfectly to slow down the Seattle offense. SO much of what they want to do is based on a productive run game. Tampa Bay has been incredible against the rush thus far. They are allowing 68.6 rushing yards per game. A total that is almost 20 ypg less than the next closest team.

I expect this match-up to remain close for the majority of the game with Tampa Bay having a real shot at winning the game on the field. I’ll gladly take the 5 points with the road team here.

Pick: Buccaneers +5

Green Bay Packers -3.5 vs Los Angeles Chargers

The Packers are an incredibly public side this week getting an astounding 87% of the bets. The money is back them also, as they are getting 85% as of Friday. While normally fade the public hard in a spot like this and all my instincts are pulling me in the opposite direction, I will be Joe Public this week.

This game will be a Packers home game for all intents and purposes. The Chargers stadium is typically occupied by a large of amount of the other teams fan base but with the Packers national fan base and the way their fans travel it should be closer to the 80 plus percent like the bets.

For a Packers team that is riding their backfield duo the Chargers will be welcomed sight. Los Angeles has had issues slowing opponents rush attack this season. Look for the Packers to win this game by at least a touchdown, covering the 3.5 with relative ease.

Pick: Packers -3.5

Baltimore Ravens -3 vs New England Patriots

It can definitely be intimidating to back any team against the New England Patriots but this week is one that makes a ton of sense. Baltimore is a team that can run the ball incredibly well. This is something that will cause issue for a New England defense that has been dominant all season long. Anyone that watched the game a week ago saw exactly what I’m talking about. Nick Chubb had a field day seemingly running up and down the field with ease. Had he been able to hold onto the ball or not have his offensive lineman kick the ball out of his hands the Browns probably cover a week ago.

Now Bill Belichick is one of the greatest coaches of all-time for a reason. He continually finds a way to prevent the best thing a team has. John Harbaugh will have his hands full this week. He will get to come into this game with two weeks to prepare as Baltimore is coming off a bye. 

It will be interesting to see what the Patriots offense looks like this week against a good but not great Ravens defense looks like against Brady and company. They will have to get pressure on him early and often. Something I think they can do.

I will side with the home team getting points this week in this game as scary as it may be. I think Baltimore can do enough to keep this game incredibly close and possibly hand New England their first loss of the season. I would suggest waiting as many will chase the Patriots in prime time. I like this line much, much better at 3.5 but will gladly take the 3.

Pick: Ravens +3

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