Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings With Uncertainty

Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings With Uncertainty

This report presents a fairly comprehensive landscape for week 7 player rankings in Non-PPR, PPR and Half Point PPR Leagues. I believe that rankings can be more than lists and quick numbers. Fantasy Football Week 6 Rankings With Uncertainty

Vegas Information

Therefore, I begin with the current Vegas views of the Week 7 games. We can “see” the predicted winners (more fantasy points!) vs losers (fewer fantasy points). Also, the level of passing can be determined by the total points from Vegas.

The games with the highest total points should yield a lot of fine fantasy points. (Shoot-Out). Games labeled low scoring should have less scoring and passing. Below-Average and Above-Average games are also labeled.

These labels are a great tiebreaker between similarly ranked players for your lineups! Also useful in DFS stacking where you might force players into your DFS plays. 

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KEY Predicted High Shoot Out Week 7 Games – 6 this week starting Thursday.


Defense Against the Position (DAPs) Metrics 

The following tables highlight the Week 7 Match-Ups in the context of each team’s opponents DAPS. I give 2 views for analysis. The DAPs measure fantasy point surrendered over the first 6 weeks at the position. Easy to Hard (Green to Red).

An overall DAP landscape marked colorization and DAP type. We can have Easy defenses (Green), Above Average Easy defenses (Light Green), Below Average Tough defenses (light red), and Very Tough Defense (Red) DAPs on a scale of 100 to 0 (Easy vs Tough).

  • Deeper Positional DAPs can spot flaws in tough defenses.
  • For example NO vs QBs 52 DAP or CAR vs RB at 59.5 DAP.
  • Also extreme weakness in a poor defense.
  • For example, WAS vs RB at 84.6 DAP or TB vs QB at 100 DAP. 

Find the extremes as use for week 7 lineups or DFS adjustments. 

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The Plot of Week 7 Overall Team Analysis

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Vegas Predicted Game Scripts vs DAPs Combinational Landscape

The following figures present the Vegas view with the DAPs of the teams playing in week 7.  Does the Vegas view support the DAP metrics? The intersection of these data streams can provide direction to lineups and DFS plays as well. 

These figures highlight the landscapes for week 7.

The easy DAP niches are highlighted by yellow circles. Easy to Red *Green to Red

Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings


HIGH Shoot-Out Week 7 Games 

For example DAL vs PHI. Vegas picks DAL to win by 6 points. Vegas “says” the game is high scoring with plenty of TDs and yardages. The overall defenses are easy for both teams. That implies an offensive based game. Move toward this game. 

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Above Average Scoring Week 6 Games

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Below Average Scoring Week 6 Games

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Low Scoring Week 6 Games

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Bonus – Red Zone Touchdown Scoring By Teams Home vs Away Metrics Weeks 1 to 6

Red Zone Touchdowns can make or break your team’s week. I gathers the current 2019 season of RZ TDs and assigned each team a metric from highest-scoring teams (green) to low scoring teams (red). 

Where these scores occur also is a critical aspect of weekly play and decisions. Does the team do well at home or away games? Red-Away/Green-Home/Yellow-Balanced

The following table and graph present these data and place them into a quick use format for setting lineups and DFS plays. 

HOU and BUF are the tops in RZ TD scoring vs CIN and MIA as the worst 2 teams. These metrics highlight night nuggets to combine with DAPs/Vegas/My Rankings. Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings

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RZ TD Scoring Vs Home/Away Bias

The green bars denote the Team’s level of RZ TDs while the red line marks each team’s Away/Home Bias. The pink line is the league average in Away/Home Bias

For example, SEA is Home Biased and the 3rd highest RZ TD scorers. SEA is at home this week! Move to SEA players. MIN is the 8th highest RZ scorer with a high Away/Home Bias. However, MIN is playing at DET. Caution!

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Uncertainty Levels for Each Player and Team

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

  • In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in uncertainty you cannot predict the possibility of a future outcome.
  • Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
  • Risks can be measured and quantified while uncertainty cannot.
  • You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty you can’t.
  • Week 7 AIO Rankings With Uncertainty

Conclusion:

  • Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them.
  • Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience.
  • However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.*
  • *https://pmstudycircle.com/2012/02/risk-vs-uncertainty/. This source explains risk vs uncertainty

 

Interpretation of TEAM UNC Levels

Remember high uncertainty only means the range of outcomes is large. Thus rankings of players that are highly uncertain should be treated with caution. It does not mean they are low ranked!

You can have highly ranked and uncertain players vs a high ranked low uncertain players. Your confidence should be higher with the lower uncertain players. In DFS these players will tend to be solid cash game selections. The high ranked player with high uncertainty are more fitting to tournament DFS plays. 



Uncertainty Levels for Week 7 Teams 

I use the uncertainty levels and determine the counts of players ranked as High, Mid, and Low uncertainty. The % of each type of uncertainty is then calculated as %H, A and L.  The High H/L metric implies a team with players of higher week 7 uncertainty whereas the lower metrics imply lower uncertainty exists. Red Teams are more uncertain this week! 

I annotated for week 7 the teams

  • Low in uncertainty in green colorization LAC/JAC/PHI/BAL/ATL/MIA/KC/MIN
  • The opposite teams (red colorization) are NYJ/SEA/SF/CHI/OAK/WAS/IND/NYG/BUF

The table and graph display the week 7 Team UNC levels for analysis. In general, move to low uncertainty teams. Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings

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The Plot of Week 7 Uncertainty Teams

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Fantasy Sports Professor (FSP-me) Team Rankings

The ranges of my FSP rankings are High 100 (green/purple) to Low 0 (red/yellow). I averaged my FSP players rankings by teams and I sorted that Team Metric average from high to low below in the table. Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings

Top Teams this week are ATL/KC/LAC/LAR/SF/JAC/NO/ARI

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Scaled Rankings compares each team’s average week 7 FSP vs the league average. How much better is team 1 vs 2 this week? I would list all teams with an average scoring (above) and then these scaled ranked for comparison. Then I might combine the vegas and DAP metrics for a benchmark to further analyze.

Yes, I want your to work for your results. I want you to see my process so you can get better.

This graph presents a nice visual of all teams ranked for the level of uncertainty players.

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Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings With Uncertainty

I present my week 7 FSP rankings with UNC levels for all positions. These average rankings (end column) are sorted High (purple) to Low (Yellow). I combine my PPR/HALF PPR/NonPPR rankings for an AIO experience. I have metrics that suggest it may be better for players to see a global ranking.

Additionally, I list the player’s rankings with their UNC level of High/Avg/Low. Combining all league types leads to different UNC levels. I show you the complete view for your analysis.

The DST/K/QB are the same under any scoring system and thus they have only one UNC level for week 7.

RB/TE/WR will and can have multiple views of week 7 FSP rankings and UNC levels. Use for deeper analysis. 

Overall, use these metrics for tiebreakers, DFS cash vs tournament decisions, and lineup selections.


DST K and QBs

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Running Backs

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Tight Ends

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Wide Receivers

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Team Level Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings With Uncertainty

Players within their team environment. These Team level FSP rankings with UNC levels view spot pecking orders, usages within the positions, and team strengths and weaknesses.

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Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings

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