Week 5 Targets and Touches

Week 5 Targets and Touches

This report, Week 5 Targets and Touches uses metrics on Team, Position, and Player targets and rushing attempts. The more opportunity is the higher the chances for collection of your Team’s fantasy points. This information is meant for deeper thinking and note-taking. If you have deeper benches these metrics allow you to jump into new player shares early for gambling. That is how I use deep benches. I continue to rotate players at the bottom.

Lineup Diary

I would use these Team metrics with my rankings and snap reports to finalize the week 3 lineups. This process is not automatic and easy. I am urging all players to dig deep into their decisions. There is plenty of software to automatically set-line ups. I subject using a notebook and record your process. This lineup diary can be useful for you to spot weaknesses or strengths in your game by the week or season.

Rankings Link: fantasy-football-week-6-rankings-with-uncertainty

Snaps Report Link: week-5-snaps-report


Team Target Averages vs Targeting Rate

I have discussed my top-down approach to data analysis. These bigger views allow a deeper feel for the deeper data. Below is the table of Team Target Averages vs Targeting Rate using the first 4 weeks of target data. Week 4 Targets and Touches

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Targeting Rate is associated with the numbers of targets per player. Thus the metric identifies the Team Level of Pass-Catching Players. 

Few Players Targeted mean more opportunity per player.

  • MIA/KC/CIN/NYJ/NO/OAK – Purple  High Targeting Rate to Few Players
  • HOU/BUF/PHI/SF/BALARI/DAL -Yellow- More Players Spreading the Ball Around. 

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The Weekly Average of Targets is a simple averaging of Team Targets from Weeks 1 to 5. Teams with high target averages are stained in Blue vs low target averages in Red.

High Target Average Teams – LAR/ATL/CAR/NYJ/NYG/NE/PHI/CIN

Low Target Average Teams – SF/TEN/MIN/BAL/TB/IND/DET/MIA/GB

Looking for Teams with High Targets with Fewer Players. LAR/PHI/ARI/DAL/JAX (Buy into these teams). Week 5 Targets and Touches

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A Visual Plot of Target Averages vs Rates

Memorize the high target teams (green bars). Handy to know in DFS.

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Avg Targets By Teams Weeks 1 to 5 With Variation and DIFFs


AVG Targets

I plotted the AVG Targets by Teams from high to low and stained the teams blue vs red.

  • High Target Average Teams – LAR/ATL/CAR/NYJ/NYG/NE/PHI/CIN
  • Low Target Average Teams – SF/TEN/MIN/BAL/TB/IND/DET/MIA/GB

DIFFs Metrics

The DIFFs metric simply looks are recent increases or declines in targets from the Team’s last 2 played games. Extreme DIFFs positive and negative should be deeply questioned.

New Trend of Mirage? Be Awake to shifts in team fortunes!

Increases Week 4  – ATL/LAR/GB/MIN/IND/BUF.

  • In Week 5 none of these week 4 increasing teams are in the top group for week 5 thus mirage. Mostly moving to average.
  • Increases Week 5 – DAL/LAC/NO/NYJ/CHI/JAX/BAL/HOU/WAS/KC
  • Decreased Week4  – WAS/LAC/NYJ/ARI/BAL/MIA/SEA/TEN.  MIA was the only team that was on the Week 4 decrease list that is on the Week 5 list as well. Caution. 
  • Decreases in Week 5 – CAR/CLE/LAR/GB/MIA/DEN/NE/BUF/IND/ATL
  • NYJ/LAC/DAL are in the tops in Targeting and increased in Week 5 FYI.

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Combinational Plot of Team Target Averages and DIFF

The intersection of DIFF and target averages are key for lineups. In seasonal, a strong opponent should move you to more gambles (High DIFF High Targets). In DFS tournament lineups as well these teams can be of use.

Note the Pink Line is the average of Targets. Above the pink line are increasing teams vs decreasing teams are below the pink line. Interestingly, much of the decreased DIFF teams were high in targets. The regression to average is clear.

  • NYJ/LAC/DAL are in the tops in Targeting and increased in Week 5 FYI.

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Positional Level Team Target Averages, DIFFs and % Team Targets (%TT)

Extremes

These series of figures document a dense level of metrics in one view. These data tables need serious time to consider analysis. I included 4 teams worth of tabular data over weeks 1 to 5  followed by a visual plot of the Team’s positional targets, DIFFs and % Team Targets. 

You can perceive the team style of passing to each position. Extremes are always interesting and can direct moving to players or away from poorly targeted positions and players.

For Example ARI WRs at 52% %TT 5th highest in the league. No TE %TT at all. Nice RB %TT uses as well. Scan through each team for extremes.



ARI_ATL_BAL_BUF

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CAR_CHI_CIN_CLE

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DAL_DEN_DET_GB

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HOU_IND_JAX_KC

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LAC_LAR_MIA_MIN

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NE_NO_NYG_NYJ

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OAK_PHI_PIT_SEA

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SF_TB_TEN_WAS

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Team Level Positions % Team Targets

I calculate the total targets to each position (%TT) and sorted the data from High (purple) to Low (yellow). The team names were Green to Red. Average Targets and DIFF metrics are also included for the context of %TT. Use for lineups and DFS Plays.


Running Backs

NYJ/CHI/ARI/LAC/WAS/NE/PIT/MIN/DEN/MIA/CAR/JAX are highly targeting RB Teams.

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Tight Ends

SF/OAK/BAL/PHI/ATL/KC/NYG/CAR/TEN are the High TE targeting teams.

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Wide Receivers

The top WR Teams by %TT are DET/CLE/HOU/TB/ARI/LAR/GB/DAL/NE/BUF

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Player Level Weekly Targets, Target Averages, and %TT, 

These tables give a Team by Team view of the Target Metric Landscape. I use to “see” pecking order, team usage, and recent changes in targeting activity. Looking for extremes and recent changes. I use to spot new player trends for actionable information in lineups in DFS and seasonal leagues.

 Move toward highly involved improving players and away for the opposite player types. Week 5 Targets and Touches. Each Team needs your scan and note-taking for your thinking.

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Player Level Target Averages, DIFFs, and %TT

I note the odd players higher and improving as well as the well know players declining and lower than expected in %TT. The high players will tend to be the house-hold names.


RBs

Top 12 RBs PPR Specials- Chris Thompson, James White, and Tarik Cohen. Note Singletary if he makes it back to play!

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TEs

Everett has woke! D Walker has declined badly!

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WRs

Gallup is back! Fuller big jump? Real? D Thomas from the NYJ watch list 9 targets. Evans only 3 targets? Find the extremes.

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Team Level Running Back Average Touches

As RBs can rush as well as pass-catching, we must look into the combined role they have on a team. The “touches” metric tracks this RB activity and enables a deeper view of the Team’s RB usages. 

These metrics are a landscape view of the leagues and teams. High Touching Teams would have significant RBs in PPR while Low Touching Team would not. 

Focus on RB committee structure and pecking order in case of injury as these new players should inherit a nice situation.

        Top RB Touch Teams – DEN SEA DAL TEN JAX HOU ARI IND NYJ and CIN

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Team Level Running Back Weeks 1 to 5 Touches, Average Touches, and DIFFs

This table is sorted by DIFF to emphasize increasing and decreasing teams. (Extremes). Why? Answer the question that will unlock value for your teams.

DEN/IND/GB/NE/HOU/SEA/ARI/DET/OAK are the high touch teams. Remember the nature of the RBs is critical in the fact that RB by committee will have more players to feed vs a Bell-Cow RB. High Touches better for one RB (NO JAX) vs 3/4 RBs (NE for instance)

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Players RBs Touches Weeks 1 to 5, Average Touches, DIFFs, and %TTCH for each player

Looking within Teams for RB pecking orders, DIFFs in touches, Averages in Touches, and %TTCHs  These give us clarity for the Teams RB crew. Which Players own the backfield? Look for new improving players or declining players. Note the extremes and add or drop players accordingly.

CMC at 91%, Fournette at 91% etc Bell Cows!

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Team RB Touch Metrics Environment

Team centric metrics gives us a deeper view of the Touch dynamics within a team. Surprise RBs can be a lifeline during injury or Bye Weeks. Find your plays, add.drops before the crowd. Think 2 weeks ahead!

If X is injured who is next. Write that list down and you can quick snap a backup RB first as others are rosterbating this situation! Hand on the keyboard and get to work!

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