What’s up y’all! I am here again this week to break down our Week 5 NFL Picks Against the Spread as Aaron is off playing golf in Arizona with friends. I for one am jealous but we cant all be so lucky. Aaron has been absolutely fuego with his picks as of late. He continues to go 2-1 and hitting his top two bets each week. Don’t worry, Aaron has you covered with his picks!
For those new to the column our picks are listed in order of confidence with the top pick being our favorite down to the least confident.
For my picks however, a 1-2 week was not what I was looking for. I didn’t love the board last week and even relied on a 3 team teaser for one of my picks. Shouts to the Colts for losing on the field against the lowly Oakland Raiders. The Browns came through for me last week. It was the only game Aaron and I were on the same side for.
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Four straight weeks of 2-1 isn’t bad to start out the season! The Miami Dolphins have single-handedly been responsible for 3 of my 4 losses. Fool me once… and I’ll keep picking you until you finally cover.
Last week, my Browns call was absolutely spot on. Not only did I think Cleveland took down the Ravens, but I mentioned how Lamar Jackson wasn’t going to look like the Jackson of weeks 1 & 2 against that blitz-happy defense. The over 55 call on the Chiefs vs. Lions was easy money as well.
My loss, the poor Dolphins, could have easily covered the 16.5 points they were given. But, they didn’t. They blew the cover and left me reeling in my own agony for picking them for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. I won’t be doing that again this week… mostly due to their bye, but also because I’m done with
Week 4 Results:
Aaron – 8-4-0
Kyle – 5-7-0
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That said, you’re not here for last weeks picks, you’re here for Week 5 winners! So who do Aaron and I like this week?
Baltimore Ravens -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
I love this spot for the Baltimore Ravens. They come into this game off of a crushing defeat at the hands of the Cleveland Browns. The public has been all over the place with this Ravens team. They’re not as bad as the team we saw a week ago. They’re also not as good as the team we saw against Miami and Arizona.
This week Baltimore faces a Pittsburgh Steelers team that looked like a juggernaut on national television. The defense was having a party in the backfield and creating turnovers. The offense looked productive as well but they used some gadget plays to get their running game going.
Combing the down week for the Ravens with a blow out win for Pittsburgh will have everyone looking at the Steelers this week.Even with this game on the road, I expect Baltimore to play well and cover the three points.
Take the road favorite.
Pick: Ravens -3
Carolina Panthers -3.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
The Panthers have gone 2-0 since swapping Kyle Allen for Cam Newton. The Lisfranc injury is going to sideline Super Cam for a while and it may actually be a good thing. While Allen wasn’t great a week ago, he was able to make enough plays to lead his team to a second straight road victory. Coming home should help the young QB be more productive.
The Panthers defense as a whole has been great thus far. They currently rank 5th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA but can struggle against the run. Kawaan Short was placed on the IR which hurts an already struggling run defense. That said, I still expect Carolina to cover the 3.5 points.
The smart money is with me as the line has gone from 3 to 3.5 despite 53% of the bets coming in on Jacksonville.
Pick: Panthers -3.5
Minnesota Vikings -5 at New York Giants
The Minnesota Vikings are a middle of the road team that does two things, dominates bad teams and struggles with good teams. They want to run the ball and play tremendous defense. This allows them to control the clock, not make Kirk Cousins throw, and let their strengths do the work.
Despite what we have seen the past two weeks a Daniel Jones led Giants that is without Saquon Barkley is bad. Facing Washington and Tampa Bay who rank 28th and 15th in passing DVOA will help a young QB look better than he actually is.
The Giants get a dose of reality while Minnesota gets back to winning to help cure some of the locker room issues that are currently happening.
Pick: Vikings -5
New York Giants +5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Of all the potential parallel universes out there, in less than 1% of them did I see myself picking the Giants over the Vikings in week 5. The Daniel Jones show is here and it’s real! The Vikings are a much better team overall, so the line is a little scary to me… but I still like the G-men here. If they don’t pull it out, I expect them to keep this game extremely close and low scoring.
Bonus bet: this game is going under… line is at 45 – hammer it!
Golden Tate’s return should help Daniel Jones with another short passing option. Tate is one of the game’s premier slot receivers and he shouldn’t take long to acclimate after his 4-game suspension. Wayne Gallman Jr. looked extremely serviceable as Saquan Barkley’s backup, albeit against a weak Washington team. With Sterling Shepard healthy, Even Engram clicking, and the emergence of Tate, this is now a explosive-ish offense.
On the other hand, the Vikes have been all over the place this season. They man-handled Atlanta in week 1, lost to the Packers in week 2, beat the Raiders in week 3, then lost to the Bears last week. The small pattern of 2019 would say that they win this game, but I’m not so sure. They’ve played two good teams and lost twice. They have also only won at home. With the Eagles looming next week, the Vikings show up this week to play enough to compete, or barely pull off the win, but they don’t blow the G-men out. Kirk Cousins has been one of the worst quarterbacks this year. This could surely be a get-right game for him, but I’m riding the DJ while he’s hot!
Pick: Giants +5
Indianapolis Colts +11 @ Kansas City Chiefs
I’m really hoping T.Y. Hilton plays in this game, as this becomes a near-lock for me. It would vault this to my #1 overall pick for the week. Jacoby Brissett has been stellar filling in for Andrew Luck this year. The Colts are still a top-tier team in every aspect of the game and are not getting enough credit from Vegas or the public.
Sure, the Chiefs are good. They are great. This offense is off-the-charts fun to watch. But they are still human. Arrowhead is a difficult place to play, but the Colts have what it takes to either 1) make this a barn-burner game or 2) pull the near-impossible upset against the Chiefs in their own stadium. The Chiefs have let a lot of teams hang around so far this year, and I don’t see this game being any different.
Pick: Colts +11
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 @ Carolina Panthers
Gardner “Mustache” Minshew has taken the league by storm! Alright, maybe just my articles, but the dude can ball. He owns a top 5 completion percentage and has lead this team to a 2-2 start, despite all the controversy surrounding some top players and the organization. The comeback against the 0-4 Broncos was much more impressive than the box score would indicate.
The Jags have faced an extremely tough schedule to open the season. The Panthers may just be a fresh breath of air for them with Cam Newton still sidelined. The Jags took L’s to the Chiefs and the Texans to start the year. Then they beat the Titans and Broncos in back to back weeks. The Broncos are easily the best team without a win this year. The Titans have been a little Jeckle-&-Hyde, but they are a well-rounded football team that is not easy to beat.
The Panthers have looked all out of whack to start this year. They lost to the Rams and Buccaneers, before making a change at quarterback to give Cam Newton, and his balky foot, some well needed R&R. Kyle Allen has filled in quite well, but he was far too careless with the ball in week 4. They pulled out the win in Houston because of Christian McCaffrey and some big defensive plays. This has the making of an upset in a big way. The Jags are hungry for another divisional matchup, while the Panthers are coming home off an emotional road win against their divisional rivals.
The Texans defense hasn’t looked anything like the last few years, yet they still forced 3 fumbles from Kyle Allen last week. This Jags defense is legit and is going to stifle the young quarterback. I’m not calling the upset for my pick, but I will have some shares of the Jags money line this week.
Pick: Jags +3.5