NFL 6-Pack: Week 4 NFL Picks Against the Spread

What up everyone. I’m in for Aaron this week to break down our Week 4 NFL Picks Against the Spread! As always, make sure you are following us on Twitter @MisterMarkot & @NotoriousKRO to get all of our thoughts.

Week 3 Results:

Aaron: 2-1-0

Kyle: 2-1-0

Season Results:

Aaron – 6-3-0

Kyle – 4-5-0

It was another productive week for both Aaron and I hitting two of our three picks. Had Aaron not faded me and the Cowboys it would have been a 3-0 week for him. Washington was a let down for me even though it seemed as if the backdoor may be open.

That said, you don’t care about last week, you want the picks for Week 4. Both Aaron and I didn’t love the board this week but we didn’t want to let you, the people down.

Aaron’s picks:

For the 3rd straight week, I (Aaron) have hit my first two picks and lost my last pick. Any handicapper in the world will take 2/3 every week and I plan to keep that going this week. Miami has handed me a loss in the last two weeks – now it’s time to either call it quits or keep throwing them out there. Read on for the most exciting news you’ll hear surrounding the Miami Dolphins this year!

Cleveland Browns +7 @ Baltimore Ravens

I picked the Browns to cover against Tennessee in week 1 and lost, badly. I almost picked them in week 2 against the Jets but shied away – would have been a win before and after the Darnold news came out. Last week, I picked the Rams to beat the Browns by a measly 2.5 and won, although not without some nail biting.

Cleveland is a mess right now and they are coming across to the public as a train wreck. Actually, the Ravens sort of took the Browns early season spotlight with how well their offense performed. Everyone expected Cleveland to be the one scoring 30+ points each game, with a strong defense supporting them. The Browns offense is going to have some big games this year… it could very well be this week.

After Baltimore’s 59-point explosion against the Dolphins, the Lamar Jackson hype train took off full steam ahead. He followed that game up with a 23-17 win at home against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. His fantasy line was nuts with 2 passing touchdowns and 120 yards rushing. We need to keep in mind that these are two of the worst teams and defenses in the league. He then went to Kansas City to play another bottom tier defense. We all were hoping and believing that this was going to be the Rams vs. Chiefs of 2018.

While the game wasn’t a total disappointment, Lamar Jackson’s performance was to me. He completed 22/43 passes for 267 yards and no touchdowns. If Lamar Jackson cannot rip apart a weak Chiefs secondary, what’s going to happen when he faces real, tough-nosed defenses? That brings us to the Browns. I wrote about them last week – mainly their pass rush. They are in a blitz-heavy scheme that the secondary is clearly still adjusting to. Lamar isn’t great against a blitz and the Chiefs showed that last week. His downfield passing, which boosted his numbers in the first two weeks, was less than pedestrian last week (3-11 on passes over 10 yards).

With the Browns applying consistent pressure, he’s going to be forced to get passes out quickly and that’s not where this team puts up a lot of points. I expect the Ravens are going to run more than they have in the first 3 weeks circa 2nd half of last year. Jackson may beat the Browns on the ground if their blitzes fail at times, but he’s not going to be able to run up the score.

Pick: Browns +7

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions – Over 55

I talked about the Ravens vs. Chiefs matchup last week and told our podcast listeners to take the over on that game. The total sat at 52 and the game ended up 33-28; an easy cover.

This week, the Chiefs head to Detroit to face the offensive juggernaut Lions? No, no one is saying that. The Lions have scored 27 (in OT), 13, and 27 points. The only defense they faced was the Chargers, who held them to 13 points. Fortunately for us, the Chiefs don’t have what I consider a “real defense”. The Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites in this game, giving the implied score of 31-24. The Lions have scored above that in both games against sub-par defenses (both on the road).

The Chiefs have scored 40, 28, and 33 in there 3 games this year. The 40 and 33 came against Jacksonville and Baltimore, respectively – two top 10 defenses in the NFL. The 28 came against the Raiders in a game where they didn’t need to score a lot to win. Stafford thrives in a clean pocket and at home. The Chiefs pass-rush has not been where it was last year when the lead the league in sacks with 52. They only have 7 through 3 games and they have some putrid offensive lines helping them achieve that.

Chiefs are going to get up early, like they always do, and Detroit will be forced to throw to play catchup. Luckily for them, and us betting the over, KC’s defense is liable to be ripped apart by Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and TJ Hockenson until this game goes over the total in the early 4th.

Pick: Over 55

Miami Dolphins +16.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

WTF, Marcotte?!? Three straight weeks picking Miami in this spot? You’re losing your mind. First off, I know I am, but the odds have to flip in my favor at some point. Secondly, the forecast is calling for rain and 20+ mph winds.

The Chargers were great last year but only beat 2 teams by more than 16 points: Arizona and Cleveland. And of those two, only the Browns game came away from LA. With the Melvin Gordon return news, I expect Justin Jackson to get plenty of work in this game. I’m starting him in DFS cash and tournament games, and believe he’s a solid flex play this week in all fantasy leagues (see Tony Pollard’s week 3). Austin Ekeler should still get his, but I don’t forsee Philip Rivers and company taking a bunch of shots downfield in terrible weather… especially in a game they can easily win pounding the ball down the field.

Pick: Dolphins +16.5

Photo by AP Foto – Barry Reeger

Kyle’s picks:

6 point teaser – New England -1, Kansas City -.5 and Indianapolis -1

This weeks like are leaving a lot to be desired. Normally there are lines that call out to me and this week it’s just a tumbleweed rolling through the desert. So for my top bet, I’m going to do a 6 point teaser with New England -7, Kansas City -6.5 and Indianapolis -7.

For those that don’t know, a teaser is like a parlay where all three teams have to cover the spread but you get to reduce or add to the current line by 6, 6.5, or 7. The payout is not nearly as good betting a teaser but you also have a much less risk.

I’m taking some big time favorites and taking them down where all they have to do is win. While I normally don’t like to take teams that the public will back heavily, sometimes the lines make too much sense. On DraftKings Sportsbook this bet is paying out $135 on every $100 bet. A nice return on bet that feels relatively safe.

Pick: New England -1, Kansas City -.5 and Indianapolis -1

Washington Redskins +3 at New York Giants

The Daniel Jones love affair has been running wild since he walked out of Raymond James Stadium with a win. This week he returns home face a Washington team that looked awful on primetime against the Chicago Bears. This combination of outcomes has everyone falling over themselves to back the home team.

I don’t care if Case Keenum or Dwayne Haskins is under the center, I’m backing Washington. Their offense will be able to do enough to keep this game close with Terry McLaurin becoming a star right before our eyes.

I expect some the shine to come off Jones and show some of the tendencies that made him a questionable prospect at the quarterback position. Give me the road team!

Pick: Washington +3

Cleveland Browns +7 at Baltimore Ravens

While the preseason hype on the Cleveland Browns seems unwarranted to this point, it is still very early and a team with as much talent as they can easily turn things around.

The Browns showed flashes of their potential against the Rams. When Baker got rid of the ball quickly he was awesome. However, when he held onto the football and his offensive line had to protect things did not go well. While the Ravens is sold, it feels a bit over rated at this point and definitely doesn’t have an Aaron Donald wrecking shop.

Like Aaron, I’m backing the Browns in this spot. This is too many points for a division game between teams with strong defenses.

Pick: Browns +7

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