Week 3 Milly Maker Plays

MILLYMAKER DOOKIE STACKED

This weeks’ slate of games features two teams as 21-point favorites. Baltimore is a touchdown dog in KC, but should cover with Jackson getting it done by any means necessary. The Patriots will host the Jets, who are likely starting Luke Falk at quarterback. KC seems to be going overlooked based on projected ownership because of the perceived bad matchup against the Ravens stingy secondary. Vegas doesn’t see an issue projecting KC with a whopping 31 implied points. Let’s dig in!

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.

 

QB

Jimmy Garoppolo, $6200, San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers will head back to the west coast for their home opener having just won back to back games on the road. Shaking off the rust and offseason rehab, Garoppolo came alive against the Bengals to the tune of 296/3 in Week 2. Garoppolo should have time to throw the ball this week, with a slate best 1.99% OL SkRate. His opponent, the Steelers, allow the 5th most fantasy points to the position. Garoppolo ranks top 5 in passing DVOA, Production Premium, QBR and YAC/tgt. I like pairing him with Goodwin.

 

Carson Wentz, $5600, Philadelphia Eagles

Wentz is simply too cheap. The uncertainty surrounding his supporting cast is unwarranted. As a disciple of Bill Bellichick, Doug Pederson will find a way to compensate for the lack of starpower. The game plan will most likely be centered around Nelson Agholor, who proved to be a reliable target in Week 2 and Zach Ertz. The Eagles have a 26.5 implied point total. If you need to pay up at other positions, Wentz is a nice value.

 

Dak Prescott, $6500, Dallas Cowboys

Dak has become a fixture in this article, and for good reason. Dak and the ‘Boys return to Dallas to host the Miami Dolphins. Prescott is ranked one overall in QB DVOA, facing this historically bad Dolphins defense. The Cowboys are allowing sacks on only 2% of plays while the Dolphins are sacking opposing quarterbacks at a low 5% clip. With time in the pocket and a healthy implied team total of 35 points, Dak will finish as a top three QB finish on DraftKings for the third week in a row.

Chalk QB:
Jackson

Also Consider:
Mahomes, Allen, Wilson, Murray, Brady

Fade:
Watson, Cousins, Rodgers

 

RB

Raheem Mostert, $4700, San Francisco 49ers

With starter, Tevin Coleman, sidelined with a high ankle sprain, the 49ers have implemented a full on committee approach to the backfield. Breida is the nominal starter but is second on the team in snaps behind Raheem Mostert. Kyle Shanahan seems to be purposely limiting Breida’s workload, most likely based on his well known history of injuries. Through two weeks, Mostert leads the team in snaps, RB receptions, RB receiving yards and trails only the explosive, Deebo Samuel, in YAC. PIT ranks bottom five against the pass.

 

Frank Gore, $4400, Buffalo Bills

No team gives up more fantasy points to the running back position than the Cincinnati Bengals. Gore’s backfield partner, Devin Singletary, has been declared out for this game. The Bills’ rushing offense sits atop Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA ranking this week. With less competition for touches, Gore is a great value in this spot.

Chalk RB:
Zeke, CMC, Cook

Also Consider:
Barkley, Ekeler, Mack, Jones, Carson

Fade:
Kamara, Ingram

 

WR

Larry Fitzgerald, $5100, Arizona Cardinals

Before you ask, the answer is NO. This article is not from 2007 with Gore and Fitgerald blurbs. The implied team total for Arizona has been bet up three points since the line opened. While Vegas expects more points to be scored for this offense, we know where to find that concentration of production. According to PFF’s Points Allowed Positional Ranking, Fitzgerald is a top five slot option this week, given the matchup. He spends 85% of snaps from the slot position where he’ll avoid James Bradberry’s coverage. Fitz is top five in MS of team touches, Air Yards (136yd avg) (eyeball emoji), and Targets (12 avg). Rotogrinders expects his ownership to be 10%.

 

Davante Adams, $7600, Green Bay Packers

Green Bay’s implied total, along with Adams’ expected light ownership of 4%, is intriguing. The once feared Broncos defense is currently having trouble sacking opposing quarterbacks (.10% rate). With more time to throw the ball, Rodgers will look to his reliable target in Adams. Football Outsiders’ WR/CB matchup rating has Adams as a top 10 play at the position. The cherry on top? PFF expects Adams to see a lot of swinging door outside cornerback Yiadom (82/100 ranked CBs).

 

DaeSean Hamilton, $4000, Denver Broncos

This is a very fringe play. Hamilton has yet to get on the same page with Flacco this season. However, in 2018, Flacco was top five amongst quarterbacks in targeting slot receivers. Hamilton and Flacco have had a few missed connections already this season but at some point this will change. Fellow wideout, Courtland Sutton, is questionable with sore ribs but practiced Friday.

Chalk WR:
Agholor, Allen, Sanders

Also Consider:
Ross, Lockett, Godwin, Kirk, Goodwin, Jones Jr.

Fade:
Thomas, Juju, Gordon

 

TE

Mark Andrews, $4600, Baltimore Ravens

The TE1 after two weeks with over 100 yds/1 TD in both games is priced below $5000. His expected ownership against the Chiefs is 13%. Not surprisingly, Andrews is ranked top five in DYAR, DVOA, Dominator (teams receiving production), Yds/Rte, Fpts/Rte and HOG % (quantifies usage when in the game).

 

Blake Jarwin, $2900, Dallas Cowboys

New OC, Kellen Moore, has quickly shown to be a competent coach for the Cowboys. Expect Moore to game plan around the absence of top target, Michael Gallup. Cowboys TEs rank 1st in Football Outsiders Passing DVOA for the position in Week 3. Jarwin continues to share TE reps with Witten. In this situation, take the more talented player with gas in the tank. Facing the #FishTank, Jarwin is top five in DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement), Target Premium, Fantasy Points/Route, ReYds/tgt and Yards/pass route. Jarwin is first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranking for TE this week. For $2900, we can hope for a repeat of Week 1 and throw in an extra garbage time TD for good measure.

Chalk TE:
Olsen, Kelce, Ertz

 

DST

NE, DAL, MIN, GB

 

I will be discussing a lot of these players on the “Last Call” pod that you can listen to here:

Please Follow me on Twitter @dookiehogue and good luck this week!

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