NFL 6-Pack: Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread

As promised, we’re back with our Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread. Follow us on Twitter @MisterMarkot & @NotoriousKRO!

Week 2 Results:

Aaron: 2-1-0

Kyle: 2-1-0

Season Results:

Aaron – 4-2-0

Kyle – 2-4-0

For me (Aaron), week 2 ended in a net-positive yet again. My only loss was Pittsburgh I have an excuse for that (Big Ben injury), whether that’s fair or not. Mason Rudolph filled in admirably against a weak Seattle secondary, but not well enough to gut out the win. Jacksonville almost beat the struggling Texans in one of the ugliest games of the week. I watch the RedZone channel all-day, every Sunday and didn’t see this game pop up once. The Cardinals did exactly what we thought they would do and kept the game close. There wasn’t a single minute in which they trailed by more than 13 – a real miss by Vegas in my opinion.

For Kyle, he bounced back from his goose-egg week 1 with a strong 2-1 performance. His loss also came at the hands of the Steelers. He shared my opinion with the Cards, getting him an easy win.

His top pick of the week was the Lions at home against the Chargers. I thought that was a bold pick personally, but I do like taking the home dog in this situation. It was another slow game, finishing at 13-10 in favor of the Lions, but Kyle was spot on in his analysis. The public was all over LA in this game for no real reason at all. Chargers were banged up, coming off an OT win against a solid Indy team, and traveling to Detroit to play an improved team on their own turf.

Let’s see what week 3 has in store for the NFL 6-pack:

Aaron’s picks:

Steph Chambers – Post-Gazette

Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5 @ San Francisco 49ers

I’m currently 4-0 picking road teams and 0-2 on home teams. I’m sticking to my formula for now with my pick of the week – Da Steelers!

Public: “But Marcotte, they just lost Big Ben for the season!!”

Marcotte: “Yes, public, they sure did.”


Marcotte: “Chill, fam…” Marcotte says for the first time in his life

Public: “But, but… the Niners looked so good last week!”

The rest of this will be me so no need for the imaginary back and forth. Last week, I put my top pick on the shoulders of well-dressed, no superbly-dressed, Gardner Minshew and was handsomely rewarded for it. This week I’m doing the same thing with another quarterback making their first ever career start. PFF had Ben as a middle-tier ranked quarterback last year while throwing for 5,100 yards and 34 touchdowns. I’m not saying that Rudolph is a better quarterback than Ben, but this system works for quarterbacks. The Steelers’ o-line has been elite for years and Rudolph has plenty of weapons, even without Antonio Brown on the outside. Rudolph was a stud at Oklahoma State and filled in admirably on extremely short notice last week.

Now, with a full week of preparation, and some confidence from the Pittsburgh management (trading a 1st round pick for Minkah Fitzpatrick), Rudolph’s time to shine begins. He has a more-than-capable stud receiver in Juju Smith-Schuster and his college buddy James Washington; one of my favorite pre-season sleepers in fantasy this year. This connection resulted in 206 receptions, 4,188 yards, and 35 touchdowns through 42 career games. You don’t see a QB-WR duo who played for 4 years together very often in the NFL, but I’d be willing to bet the chemistry is still there and extremely strong.

The 49ers are a somewhat surprising 2-0 and looked very strong last week. I think they looked a little too strong in fact. The public will remember them blowing out the Bengals last week, but they only beat the Bucs in their first game. The Bucs looked all out of sorts in week 1 and I don’t think it was the Niners doing. I see the Niners as a good-not-great team. A team that can win 9 games this year, but I have a feeling they take the loss here to a more talented and veteran Steeler team. If the Niners pass rush can get to Rudolph early and often, they will be able to shake the young quarterback and pull off the win. My odds are on the Steelers keeping this close or winning this game outright.

Pick: Steelers +6.5

Los Angeles Rams -3 @ Cleveland Browns

The Rams skated by on the road against the Panthers in week 1 (picked that game too) and beat up on a Drew Brees-less Saints team last week. The Rams passing game has been nowhere near what it was last year when Goff averaged 293 yds/gm and 8.4 yds/att. Goff is sitting at only 7.0 yds/att this year, yet nothing in the scheme or team has changed. McVay is going to notice this and get his $134-million-dollar man going again.

The Browns defense has struggled to cover receivers in this new blitz-happy scheme under Steven Wilks. They let the Titans score 43 points on them… a run-first, pass-never team. Then they played the Jets who trotted Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk out there. Falk didn’t get the Jets a touchdown but he went 20-25 with 200 yards. A lot of those passes went to Le’Veon Bell, but I’m still weary of this Browns defense.

The Browns are also one of the worst teams against play-action – the Rams’ bread and butter. Goff is not good under pressure, so if the Rams can’t protect, I’m going to be very concerned. Something tells me that coaching and talent is going to prevail in this one. McVay beats Kitchens and Jared Goff beats Baker Mayfield – although Baker should figure it out sooner rather than later.

Pick: Rams -3

Miami Dolphins +22.5 @ Dallas Cowboys

Ugh, I don’t have much to say about this. I took Miami last week outside of my article and watched the painful, slow-ish death of that bet. Dallas may be the next-best team outside of the Patriots, but they are less ruthless. That, in combination with Miami having to figure something out, forces me to take this game. It’s 3 touchdowns!

Dallas’ offensive is awesome this year, but the loss of Gallup really hurts. Dallas should pound the ball a little more in this game, control the clock, and keep the scoring reasonable. If they were to score 28 (conservative, maybe?) then Miami just has to score a touchdown. They were able to do it against the Ravens; whose defense is better than Dallas.

The total of 47 implies a final score of 34-13. Vegas is putting in their line almost two full scores for Miami. I truly think they get on the scoreboard this week and get their first cover. Rosen has to come out Sunday with a chip on his shoulder to win the confidence of this team and the coaching staff if he’s going to be their quarterback to rebuild around.

Pick: Dolphins +22.5

Kyle’s picks:

Toni L. Sandys – The Washington Post

Washington Redskins +4 vs Chicago Bears

Washington welcomes a Bears team this week that has had issues on the offensive side of the ball. While Washington’s defense is not at the level of Denver or Green Bay, I think they can do enough to keep this game close.

On the offensive side of the ball, Case Keenum and company have been effective. Terry McLaurin is a legit weapon outside and has been impressive. I expect the offense to stay productive even in a tough matchup. 

As for the spot, I love targeting home underdogs in primetime contests. The smart money is with me as only 29% of the money is on the Bears despite Chicago receiving 59% of the bets.

As Brent Musberger would say, “A home team getting points, what’s better than that?”

Pick: Redskins +4

Dallas Cowboys -22.5 vs Miami Dolphins

This may feel like a massive number and it definitely is but for this game, it is either lay it or don’t play it. The Dolphins have been out scored 102 to 10 through two weeks. Miami continues to bottom as they added Minkah Fitzpatrick to players that have been traded. They have also made the switch to Josh Rosen, who I am a fan of in general, but not this week.

Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen have combined for six interceptions, including a few that have turned into touchdowns for the defense. I could easily see a defensive score or two for a Dallas defense that has playmakers at all three levels.

On the offensive side of the ball Dallas has looked incredible. Kellen Moore taking over calling plays has given this team a multitude of ways to attack opposing defenses. Even without Michael Gallup, this offense should continue to roll.

I expect another route here as Dallas wins and covers.

Pick: Cowboys -22.5

Minnesota Vikings -9 vs Oakland Raiders

This number may feel too big for some especially after the questionable play a week ago against the Packers. That said, going home to face this Raider team is a great way to get back on track. Dalvin Cook should feast in this contest with Alexander Mattison likely getting some run in this spot.

The Raiders enter this game with a limited offense that includes a banged up Tyrell Williams who will get a ton of Xavier Rhoades. Their defense has shown some bright spots but have also been torched. 

Minnesota is getting 77% of the money despite only getting 59% of the bets. Give me a Vikings team heading home against a Raiders team playing their first road contest. Minnesota covers the big number winning by double-digits

Pick: Vikings -9.5

Make sure to check out each week for a fresh 6-pack of picks and to see how we did the week before!


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