Week 1 Targets and Attempts

John Bush
September 14, 2019

Week 1 Targets and Attempts

This report uses Week 1 Targets and Attempts metrics on Team, Position, and Player targets and rushing attempts. The more opportunity is the higher the chances for collection of your Team’s fantasy points.

I use a landscape approach to this data looking at Team level data. I use to label a team run, pass or balanced based activity. Obviously, these metrics are correlated to your collect choices of players to place in lineups.

Lineup Diary

I would use these Team metrics with my rankings and snap reports to finalize the week 2 lineups.

Links

https://www.fakepigskin.com/2019/09/12/week-1-snaps-report/

https://www.fakepigskin.com/2019/09/11/week-2-aio-rankings-with-uncertainty/

This process is not automatic and easy. I am urging all players to dig deep for their decisions. There are plenty of software to automatically set-line ups. I subject using a notebook and record your process. This lineup diary can be useful for you to spot weakness or strengths in your game by the week or season.

Team Rushing and Targeting Week 1

This table lists by colorized (high to low) numbers week 1 team rushes. targets, a ratio of rushing vs targets. I then have sorted by high run metrics. MIN was crazy by its 4.0 ATT/Targets. No way that was the game plan going in.

Assume in week 2 the teams will be close to their week 1 activity of rush first, pass first, or balanced approach. The more weeks the better our data so come back for week 3.

MIN/BAL/SF/SEA/IND/TEN/OAK Rushing First.

Caution on pass-catching RBs, TEs, and WRs

CLE/NO/NYJ/JAX/BUF/ARI/NYG/ATL/MIA/WAS/PIT/CIN/CHI

Pass First Teams. Caution on rushing only RBs.

Percentage of Team Targets (TT) By Position

These next data give context to each Team’s Position in terms of % TT and my designation of Usages within that team. Each Position has tabular data and a visual plot of the data.

I use to a tie-break in lineups in seasonal and DFS situations. Love a player favored to get targets and is low-priced on Fan Duel etc.

Running Backs

Key RB High Usage Teams CHI NE and SEA. Note only Carson seems a Bell-cow type. CHI and NE use an RBBC approach. Guess the right week to use one of their RBs.

Concern on LAR, OAK, and BAL. These were extremely low on targeting RBs.

Tight Ends

Nice divide in the league in TE usages. BAL/OAK/SF/GB/NYG/TEN. Suggest you strongly force TEs from these teams into your DFS plays.

Caution for MIN/ARI/NE/CHI. Note CHI is getting back Burton who did not play last week? I have begun stock-piling B Watson from NE for later usages.

Wide Receivers

Love the High Usage Teams. ARI/LAR/PIT/MIN/DAL/HOU. Note MIN low targets on their WRs a concern!

TEN/BAL/SEA/SF/NYG/CAR. Caution on using WRs from these teams!

Scaled Team Targets by Position

I try to design my data figures for easy takeaways. Here I took the league %TT averages for each position. That number was subtracted from the raw %TT and that yielded a scaled to the league average %TT. Now the data is in the context of week 1.

I added a purple X to highlight what situations I found interesting.

ARI – WR strong but TE weak

BAL – TE strong but WRs weak

CHI Strong RBs Weak TEs

DAL Strong WRs weak RBs (expect Zeke picked it up?)

GB Strong TEs

HOU Strong WRs Weak TEs

LAC strong RBs

LAR Strong WRs weaker RBs

MIN Interesting WRs Low TEs (not sure this is the pattern caution?)

NE Strong RB weak TEs

NO Strong RBs weak TEs

NYG Strong TE weak WRs

OAK Strong TEs (Waller!) but RB weak

PIT Strong WRs weaker RB and TEs

SEA Strong RBs weak WRs

SF Strong TE weak WRs

Ten Strong TE weak WRs

WAS strong RBs

Week 1 Targets and Attempts – Key Metric Ratios

Another handy way to “see” the data is by ratios. This is a simple way for quick comparisons. Look for extremes is how I use this data for DFS and seasonal lineups! The low ratio teams should get you to pause before your plays.

WR vs RB

Ratio WR/RB – Compares a Teams Passing to WR vs their RBs. How does a team divide the passing target pie? Critical metrics LAR/OAK/DAL/BAL key Teams. WR3 more viable on these teams. I am picking up Cobb at DAL/ Snead at BAL/ Renfrow in OAK/.

WR vs TE

Ratio WR/TE – Compares a Teams Passing to WR vs their TEs. ARI/CHI/NE/PIT/NYJ all not using their TEs. Note CHI (Burton coming back pick up for a TE2), NE (Pick of Watson for a TE1 type gamble, NYJ (TE coming off suspension soon beat the waiver wire!)

TE vs RB

Ratio TE/RB – Compares TE Passing to RB Passing. Strong TEs BAL/OAK/LAR We now can add a level of TE use BAL is at 15 to 1 vs OAK at 10 to 1. Many are trying to nail down the BAL TE to have. Key

Week 1 Targets and Attempts Player Level Team Context

These blocks of data include

Team
Position
Player
Sum of Targets (colorized High to Low)
Sum of Rushing Attempts (colorized High to Low)

Just because a use scaled and ratio metrics does not mean you should not use the raw data. I think looking within the team gives insight beyond a list of players and numbers.