Tiers of Confidence- QB Edition
The best Fantasy Analysts always show you their list of players in tiers. Sometimes the difference between 2nd and 4th place is minuscule and other times its as wide as the Grand Canyon. The other great tool when it comes to Fantasy drafts is the Average Draft Position (ADP) of a player. Your stud quarterback might project to be the fourth best in the draft, but his ADP says he won’t go until the 5th round. It doesn’t make any sense to pick him with the 4th pick in the draft! Accumulating the most talent is the key to Fantasy Football success. But since Fantasy Football is a weekly game, why does anyone care about year end point differences anyway? Today, I present a different way to look at draft value which I call tiers of confidence. We will examine quarterbacks in the Point per Reception (PPR) format. Let’s take a look at the best quarterbacks choices by round.
Patrick Mahomes (94.1%)- Please keep in mind that it is not my goal to convince you to pick Mahomes this early in the draft. Picking any quarterback in the first few rounds isn’t about the QB you select. It is about the other player you miss out on at another position. But if Mahomes proves this level of production is usual. then he will be a value in the third round in future seasons.
Aaron Rodgers (95%)- There is no other quarterback who has been more consistent than Rodgers for this long of a time. The fifth round is still a little early to take a quarterback because you miss out on guys like Tevin Coleman or DJ Moore. Their Consistency Rating is strong at their position. But Rodgers is as consistent as it gets at QB, with the top Best 10 score too.
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Deshaun Watson (78.3%)- There is a significant drop off in Consistency Rating at quarterback from the top two (Mahomes and Rodgers), to the rest. This is one reason I can say the elite quarterbacks are more valuable than you often think. Watson is also the last of the big consistent upside potential guys, with a Best 10 score of 301.
Carson Wentz (83.3%)- Can Carson Wentz play a full season is the question. Everyone in Fantasy Football has this concern about him. But, his Consistency Rating is third best among all quarterbacks. His Best 10 rating is a little lower, but that has mainly been due to injuries lowering his potential to post big numbers. Seventh round ADP is very attractive for Wentz.
Russell Wilson (78.1%)- Many Fantasy Football players shy away from Wilson because of the low volume in attempts in this Seahawks offense. But when it comes to producing a high floor on a consistent basis, only four quarterbacks rank higher. Russell’s running ability also helps boost his point total. Another plus is this: There are many scoring systems where turnovers punish you with negative points. Russell Wilson has very few turnovers.
Jameis Winston (70%)- While Jameis Winston is viewed as a “Boom or Bust” guy by many Fantasy Football analysts, his Consistency Score is 10th best in the league over the last two seasons. His propensity for turning over the ball makes him a risk to being yanked as a starter. But don’t worry, because Tampa Bay has a big drop off after him this season.
Phillip Rivers (75%)- Rivers is the Rodney Dangerfield of Fantasy Football quarterbacks. He gets no respect at all. His Best 10 score is in the middle of the pack, so don’t expect game winning heroics for your Fantasy Football team from Rivers. But if you want a consistent producer, especially as your backup, his ADP is very attractive.
Ben Roethlisberger (71%)- Big Ben is another Fantasy Football player whose demise is usually being predicted by Fantasy analysts. Then what does he do? He puts in another good year. This season, the reason is the loss of Antonio Brown that will cause his demise. But over the past two seasons, his Consistency Rating is 8th best and his Best 10 rating is 5th. He was more consistent in road games last season also.
The quarterback position is very deep as usual, but only 10 players have posted 15 or more points in 70% or more of their games over the last 2 seasons. Only two quarterbacks with more than 15 starts over the last 2 seasons posted that 15 point minimum or more 90% of the time or more. That shows why paying the elite price of even a 3rd rounder is more of a viable strategy than you might think. This depends on your semi-sleeper picks at running back and wide receiver paying off. One strategy is to pick a consistent player, such as Rivers or Roethlisberger in the 11th round. Later in the draft I will take a chance on a big upside guy like Mitch Trubisky. I predict Trubisky will improve his consistency with more playing time. It’s also a great strategy to grab Carson Wentz late in the 7th round or early in the 8th round. But, his injury history makes it imperative to get a consistent backup a few rounds later.
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