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New York Giants– Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)

New York Giants– Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.

** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook

      (Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.

By Dr. John Bush

 With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor 

Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )


In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**

** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.  

**Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting


All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:

PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure

  • Team

  • Position

  • 2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points

  • Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)

  • % 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?

  • % 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?

  • Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage? 


The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.

  1. What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency? 
  2. What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential. 
  3. Where is the risk for 2019? 

Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card

    1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors

    2) Left Y-Axis

  • Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage

  • Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage 

   3) Right Y-Axis 

  • 2018 Team Positional Usages

  • (Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)


Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows!  Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.

Key Players

  • No QB above QB 26. 
  • RB1 Saquon Barkley
  • TE6 Evan Engram
  • WR38 Golden Tate
  • WR45 Sterling Shepard

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Quarterbacks and Running Backs

NYG QB– In 2018, the NYG QBs were used at a +1.1% over 2017.  Surprisingly to some would be that the QB FP were the second best (Tied) in the last 6 years. Currently Manning is not ranked in the top 26 QBs. That seems low given the TE/RB/WR rankings. It is a over-reaction to losing OBJ? My thought is he is a solid QB2 type worthy for streaming or best ball QB2. 

NYG RB – In 2018, the NYG RBs were used nearly +5% more than in 2017. Barkley is clearly the reason for this. Having him led to the best RB FP in the last 6 years. That was a 23% increase in RB FP. He is the first RB off the board because of this increase. Players are predicting more points as well because of OBJ leaving and the passing game dropping more than 2018.  His handcuff is not in the top 64 RBs. That seems low as this team is moving to more rushing? His handcuff would have instant attention on the waiver wire! Find him and draft accordingly. 

Tight Ends and Wide Receivers 

NYG TE – In 2018 the TE position was used at a -0.6% level vs 2017. They generated the 3rd best year in the last 6 years. Engram is currently at TE6 in 2019 ADP. That seems high given the low ranking of Manning! He could be at the 6th level if the passing game is shorter based and favors a TE. 

NYG WR – In 2018 with OBJ, the team still used the WR position at a -5.3% less than in 2017. The 2018 WR FP was the second worst year in the last 6 years. Tate and Shepard are at 38th and 45th WRs by 2019 ADPs. They are being judged as WR3/4 Types. I think Tate is low and might be a good WR3 for a WR4 price? I would not overpay early until we see the Manning Tate interactions. Watch for the draft as well for a surprise rookie? 

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New York Giants

Slide42 NYG

 

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