by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)
New Orleans Saints – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
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** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.
- QB6 Drew Brees
- RB4 Alvin Kamara
- RB33 Latavius Murray
- TE8 Jared Cook
- WR4 Michael Thomas
- WR67 Tre’Quan Smith
Quarterbacks and Running Backs
NO QB– In 2018, the QBs were used at an increased 2.9% level. They generated 383 FP and that was the 2nd best in the last 6 years. Therefore, the public in 2019 is placing Brees at QB6. He is a solid choice given the players around him. He might be a solid mid level QB pick up with upside in 2019.
NO RB – The RBs in 2018 was used by + 0.8% more in team usages. They generated the second best RB FP in the last 6 years. Therefore, all NO RBs are going to get attention. Currently, Kamara is RB4 and Murray is RB33. It would seem reasonable that Murray is still undervalued. I will look at him as an upside RB3 type. Good best ball selection as well.
Tight Ends and Wide Receivers
NO TE – In 2018, the TE was used at a -3.9% level. They had a second worst TE FP in the last 6 years in 2018. A poor year for NO TE. They are still looking for the next Graham. Cook was signed and has the landscape to thrive. Thus the public is thinking that as well since he is at TE8 in 2019 ADP. Hard to see him move into the top 5 TE in ADP. He is either your later TE target or you go deeper (ASJ-Patriots, Nijoku, Walker, etc)
NO WR – The TO WRs were used about at the same level in 2018. However, the WRs’ FP from 2018 were 3rd in the last 6 years. That is still strong! Thomas is currently at WR4 and expected to have littler WR1 competition in 2019. TQ Smith is at the 67th WR. Given the Brees factor, TQ will go higher. A strong injury handcuff WR and best ball WR selection. Thus, he is a must-have for me late at WR4/5 or so.