by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)
Minnesota Vikings – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card
Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.
** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle
Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.
By Dr. John Bush
With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor
Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )
In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**
** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
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All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:
PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure
2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points
Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)
% 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?
% 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?
Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage?
The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.
- What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency?
- What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential.
- Where is the risk for 2019?
Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card
1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors
2) Left Y-Axis
Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage
Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage
3) Right Y-Axis
2018 Team Positional Usages
(Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)
Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.
- QB11 Kirk Cousins
- RB17 Dalvin Cook
- WR10 Adam Thielen
- WR15 Stefon Diggs
- TE14 Kyle Rudolph
Quarterbacks and Running Backs
MIN QB– In 2018, the QB position was used by a +3.1% more than 2017. The 2018 QB FP was the best in the last 6 year. Cousins is currently at QB11 in 2019 ADP and a solid late QB target given the 2 WRs at his command.
MIN RB – In 2018, the Min RBs were under-used by -6.1%. 2018’s MIN FP was 4th best in the last 6 years. Cooks is currently at RB17 that could be low. It’s hard to consider him coming back to 2017 levels under a passing MIN team. Watch for movement in the preseason.
Tight Ends and Wide Receivers
MIN TE – The MIN TEs were not considered as much in 2018’s passing game from MIN. The TEs were used by a -3.1% less in 2018 vs 2017. The TE FPs were the worst in the last 6 years as well. It is unclear why this is the case. Rudolph is currently TE14 in 2019 ADP. He was a disappointment in 2018 and he may be a pass as a late TE. I will tend to look elsewhere.
MIN WR – The MIN WRs were a strong duo used by the team in 2018 by a +6.0% increase. They generated by far the best FP season in the last 6 years. They moved up into the elite ranks by 24%. That may explain the lack of RB and TE usage. I assume as does the public that MIN in 2019 looks like 2018. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are 10th and 15th best WRs by 2019 ADP! You want these guys after a first round RB if you are lucky.
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