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Dallas Cowboy – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)

Dallas Cowboy – Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.

** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook

(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition.

By Dr. John Bush

 With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor 

Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )


In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**

** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.  

**Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting


All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:

PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure

  • Team

  • Position

  • 2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points

  • Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)

  • % 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?

  • % 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?

  • Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage? 


The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.

  1. What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency? 
  2. What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential. 
  3. Where is the risk for 2019? 

Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card

    1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors

    2) Left Y-Axis

  • Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage

  • Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage 

   3) Right Y-Axis 

  • 2018 Team Positional Usages

  • (Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)


Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows!  Note the ratio data will be in my textbook Chapter 5.

Key Players

  1. QB Dak Prescott            QB22
  2. RB Ezekiel Elliott           RB2
  3. Amari Cooper WR         WR14
  4. WR Michael Gallup     >WR68
  5. WR Randall Cobb        >WR68
  6. TE Blake Jarwin           >TE20
  7. TE Jason Witten           >TE20

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Quarterbacks and Running Backs

DAL QB  Prescott moved the QB position up in 2018 Team usage by +3.2%. That is the 2nd best year for DAL QBs in the last 6 years. He is at QB22 and that seems low and could be a good streamer QB or QB2.

DAL RB –  DAL RBs went down by -2.7% in team usage in 2018 vs 2017. Also, 2018 was the 4th best RB year by PPR in the last 6 years. Not sure we see any major move up. Elliot will be on track to for 2019 at 2018 levels. 

Tight Ends and Wide Receivers 

DAL TE – The TE position was uneven in 2018 with several different players. The TE positional usage dropped by -3.2% vs 2017. That was the worst TE year int he last 6 years. Witten is back! He is not in the rankings yet. He may be overlooked as a late play! 

DAL WR – DAL added Cooper last year and just added Cobb this year. The WRs were up by 2.7% vs 2017. That was the best year in the last 6 year. DAL will now have a semi-dynamic crew. They lost Beasley a possession WR however. Cooper is at WR14, but Gallup and Cobb are way off in the ADPs. Watch for a move up of Gallup or Cobb by Sept! Hard to gauge Cobb now. 

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Dallas Cowboys

Slide28 DAL

 

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