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Carolina Panthers- Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

by Dr. John Bush (Twitter @Prof_Fanasty1)

Carolina Panthers- Professor’s NFL Team Flash Card

Welcome to “Professor’s NFL Team Flash Cards” **.

** This material is from my soon to be published on Amazon Kindle

Winning Your Fantasy Football Drafts: A Comprehensive Textbook
(Redraft/Dynasty June 1, 2019, Edition
.

By Dr. John Bush

 With Associate Editor and Dynasty Draft Contributor 

Dave Cherney ( Twitter @RoadWarrior_D )


In this time of year, I am gathering my landscape views of the 2018 season. The concept that drives this type of material is from reference class forecasting**

** Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky). Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.  

**Source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting


All my Team reference flash cards contain the following:

PART 1 Tabular Data Top of Figure

  • Team

  • Position

  • 2013 to 2018 Fantasy Points

  • Grand Total FP (Last 6 years)

  • % 6 Year Positional Usage – How does the Team Use their Positions?

  • % 2018 Positional Usage How did the Team distribute their FP last year?

  • Positional DIFF (2018-(6 yr average)- What were the weakness and strengths in the 4 Positions as based on the Team’s 2018 Positional usage? 


The key metric is the DIFF and that metric sets up the 2019 questions.

  1. What position(s) need addressing for the team in the rookie drafts or free agency? 
  2. What positions are safe for 2019. (We know the key players are in place to maintain or increase a team’s skill/scoring potential. 
  3. Where is the risk for 2019? 

Part 2 Visual Plot of the Teams Positional Flash Card

    1) X-Axis contains QB, RB, TE, and WR Positional Sectors

    2) Left Y-Axis

  • Area Graph (Yellow with Black Boundary) 6 Year Team’s Positional Usage

  • Bar Graph (Purple) 2018 % Positional Usage 

   3) Right Y-Axis 

  • 2018 Team Positional Usages

  • (Red Lines Loss vs Gains in 2018 for each position)


Here is my process when considering my flashcards. First I key on the Visual Graph and note the highs and lows! 

Running Backs and Tight Ends

The positive side of the CAR team was the RB position. Team usage up +3.4%. Last year was the best in total RB FPs in the last 6 years. Strong and expect to move into 2019. Mc Caffrey is currently going as RB5. Seems a top RB pick for 2019. I would determine the handcuff as the CAR team will structure to the RB position I suggest. That player could be a sly choice in late Best Ball draft picks! 

The flip side of 2018 was the TE position. (Olsen?). 2017/18 are the 2 worst seasons in the last 6 years. Glory days? Hard to be any difference unless a free agent/rookie draft changes the equation. Rookie TEs have a historical poor first year. Note Ian Thomas is out there and is going at TE 16 and Olsen at TE 21. Both are not inspiring pick unless a backup TE for spot plays in 2019! 

Quarterbacks and Wide Receivers

QB was steady and CAM had his best since 2016 season. 2nd best in last 6! CAM is a QB 8 right now and 2019 should give you what he did in 2018. Solid back half of QB 1s. 

Finally, the 2018 WRs held steady in team based usage but they actually had the best season in last 6 years. Suggest the CAM/WRs are benefitting from the RBs doing well!  DJ Moore is going at WR 35 and Curtis Samuel at WR 37th. Looks like the public can not figure the CAR WR hierarchy. If you are good at taking a stand you may collect some value with the “right” WR drafted! Public uncertainty provided us an opportunity. Watch for information to break this tie later in the 2019 season. 

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Carolina Panthers

Slide24 CAR

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