WEEK 15 MILLY MAKER PLAYS

Week 15 Milly Maker Plays

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We’ve got 9 teams with an implied team total over 21 this week. The biggest line movement up has been TEN +2 and down NYG -2. ATL, JAX, MIN and BAL are all a 7 or more point favorites. This is a week for a tight RB/QB core and taking some shots on a value WR. Let’s dig in!

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ.

QB:

Ben Roethlisberger 7.5% owned

Ben at home with a high team total and low ownership? I’m interested! The Steelers are ranked second only to the Pats in Football Outsiders PaOff DVOA (shootout much?). Ben leads the slate in DYAR (meaning he’s much better than others in similar situations). Interestingly, Pittsburgh gives up a sack at a rate of under 4% of dropbacks, while the Pats DL sacks opposing QBs at under 5%. I obviously like the correlation along the line which could translate into extra time in the pocket for Big Ben. According to PFF, PIT’s OL/DL passing matchup is a slate best 42% advantage. The proverbial “icing on the cake” for me is the fact that both Ben and Brady top the slate in Player Profiler’s QBR metric which quantifies a player’s efficiency and “clutch factor” (their word not mine). I like to pair him with Hines Ward here.

Josh Allen 12.5%

Lol at chalk Josh Allen, amirite? But on a more serious note… He’s actually been really fantasy viable! Since becoming healthy, Allen has been a lock for the 100 yard rushing bonus on DK. He’s the reality of what we wanted to have in Lamar Jackson (which I still believe in, for the record). If McCoy is out, he also gets a bump for me. Having talked up his wheels, I do feel the need to mention this funnel pass defense of the Lions. Teams have a 28.5% advantage in match-ups against this Lions defense. Meanwhile, Allen’s average throw depth is second behind Jameis (10.8 yards/attempt.) Maybe this is the Damon Harrison affect? Either way I’m going hard on Allen in Week 15.

Also Consider:
Cousins, Trubisky, Matt Ryan, Jackson, Mullens

RB:

Derrick Henry 10% owned

Going 17/238/4 for 50.8 DK points to lead the season in a single game performance is not a good thing for ownership the following week. I’m liking Henry in this spot against the Giants and am really hoping more players fade him due to some recency bias. As I stated earlier, TEN has seen the biggest rise in implied team points. If Henry can get to the second level, these linebackers are not going to tackle/catch him. I’m looking into RB metrics on the week and they seem to be skewed based on last week’s dominating performance. Henry gets the Player Profiler Volatility bump at 11.9. I’m not expecting a repeat but an encore nonetheless.

Jeff Wilson Jr. 5% owned

I have to be honest, before last week, I would have thought Jeff Wilson Jr. was a NASCAR driver. So it turns out he was just bad chalk at RB. The field that was burned by Wilson last week, will be tentative to go back to the well. I’m only really interested in this spot if Breida gets ruled out before game time. I’m not really interested in playing him in a majority of my lineups but Breida could be a pivot at the same price if he’s good to go. The OL/DL matchup for the rush leads the slate at a 32% advantage for SFO.

Gut Call:
Tarik Cohen, Doug Martin

Chalk RB:
Cook, Zeke, Mixon, Barkley

WR:

Adam Thielen 17.5% owned

Welcome back to the article, big guy! Thielen leads all WR in salary for Week 15 but offers an incredible ceiling. If you sort the WR/CB matchups on PFF you’ll find Thielen in bright green atop the list. Thielen will find poorly rated CB, Bobby McCain on the other side of the line come Sunday. Over the past month, Thielen has ran around 30% of his routes from the slot where he thrives. Over this stretch, he has doubled all teammates in air yards from the slot. He’s a core play.

Tyler Boyd 10% owned

With A.J. Green on IR, the door of opportunity is wide open for Tyler Boyd. Even with Green on the field, Boyd was absolute fire. Now with no Green to help take some attention and Driskel under center, DFS’ers have become bearish on this passing game (understandably). Boyd will line up against Raiders bottom ranked CB, Marcus Gilchrist Sunday (of Juju fame last week).

Gut Call:
Dede, Julio, Lockette, Antonio Brown, Ateman

Chalk WR:
Juju, Hilton(check if he’s active)

TE:

C.J. Uzomah $3600

Look, you’re not going to feel good clicking on the plus sign next to this guy’s name. His game log is trash and the QB situation isn’t far off. My only interest in this play comes from opportunity and matchup. The Raiders are awful against TE and Uzomah is playing literally 100% of TE snaps. It doesn’t hurt that he’s mega cheap too.

Gut Call:
Kittle

Chalk TE:
Ebron, Gronk, Cook

DST: JAX, ATL, BAL, MIN

Please Follow me on Twitter @dookiehogue and please give me an arrow up if you enjoyed reading the article! Good luck this week!

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