Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Andrew Luck

Welcome to Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread. Aaron and I are back after the Thanksgiving holiday. Hope you enjoyed some delicious food with family while watching some watchable football. Aaron and I are back to make 3 more picks each ATS.

Aaron’s reaction: I hope everyone had a great Turkey Day and time with friends and/or family. I know I had a blast – eating way too much food and hanging outside in the 60-degree weather of Denver around a campfire all night.

My picks on the other hand were not as good as my day. Both the Skins and the Falcons missed their pushes by 1 point, but the Bears handled their business on the road in Detroit (with their backup QB). Man, the Lions are a mess! After starting out the year 18-10, I’ve hit a slight cold streak.

Kyle’s reaction:

Back to back 2-1 weeks has me feeling frisky. On Thanksgiving I gave you two winners with the Saints and Dallas, who both covered the seemingly big numbers. I also took Detroit who should have covered if Matthew Stafford wasn’t feeling so generous giving the ball to Chicago twice.

This week I have 3 picks to help keep this train rolling down the track and add a little extra cash to your pocket for the holiday season.

Week 12 results:

Aaron: 1-2-0
Kyle: 2-1-0

On the season:

Aaron : 20-15-1
Kyle : 16-18-2

Let’s get to the picks

Aaron’s Picks:

Indianapolis Colts -4 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

IT’S A TRAP! Or is it? I cannot fathom how one of the hottest teams in football going up against one of the biggest dumpster fires is only 4 points. Luck is on fire right now and the offense is unstoppable.

The Jags star running back is suspended, they benched Bortles, ditched their OC, and Jalen Ramsey may not play. There’s a good chance this game ends in a 30-point blowout. I’m sitting at 75% in the past 2 years with my 1st pick here… don’t overthink it; just bet it and forget it.

Pick: Colts -4

Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons Over 48.5

Lamar Jackson has led the Ravens to 2 straight wins, invigorating this offense in a way Flacco couldn’t/can’t. The Falcons couldn’t stop a high school offense and put up stupid points at home. Falcons home games have totaled: 55, 80, 73, 63, 43, and 41.

I’m more than fine rolling with the odds that this game fits into the mold of their first 4 games. Atlanta has played too poorly to put up another dud. This team has to have some pride and come out making this a competitive game. If they do, it’s going over 50 easily.

Pick: Over 48.5

Chicago Bears -4 @ New York Giants

Same line as last week and same pick, albeit against the Giants and not the Lions. That right there should tell you a lot. The Lions are a better team than the Giants, although the G-men have looked much better the past 3 games.

I’ve watched a lot of these games (as a semi-fan from upstate NY) and their improvement has been based on pass protection/poor pass rush. Do the Bears have a good pass rush? I think that Mack guy paired with that Roquan character are decent. Eli is going to be running for his life (or doing the patented Manning flop down) all game long. With no time to do anything, the Giants are going to struggle on offense.

No Truby bums me out a bit, especially considering I had to start Taysom Hill in place of him last night in my 2QB league (good thing I’m 11-1 in that league #humblebrag). Daniels can manage the offense well enough to put up a couple touchdowns and win this game easily.

Pick: Bears -4

Broncos Phillip Lindsay

Joe Amon – The Denver Post

Kyle’s picks:

Denver Broncos -5 at Cincinnati Bengals

While both of these teams are 5-6, they are heading in significantly different directions. The Bengals are going to have Jeff Driskel under center with Andy Dalton on season ending IR. A.J. Green may play this week but has been limited in practice. The defense has been a mess and is allowing 37.8 points over their last 5 games.

Denver on the other hand is coming into this game playing very well. They have covered 5 of their last 6 including 2 outright wins against the Steelers and Chargers.

The schedule is much more manageable down the stretch for the Broncos. They still have an outside shot at a playoff berth but that has to start this week. A week 17 matchup against the Chargers could have a ton on the line.

The Denver defense will be too much for Driskel and company. Take the Broncos to cover the 5 even on the road.

Pick: Denver -5

Baltimore Ravens +1.5 at Atlanta Falcons

This line opened at Ravens -2.5 and has swung all the way to Falcons -1.5 with 67% of the bets coming in on the home team. This line movement is nonsense. All year long despite the injuries and poor play people have vaulted the Falcons.

Coming into this game they lost and failed to cover in three straight. As a matter of fact Atlanta has only covered three games all season long. They still have injury issues on both sides of the ball and are a team looking towards next season.

While you could argue the Ravens are also looking to next season with Lamar Jackson under center. However Baltimore does two things well, play defense and run the ball. The Ravens have looked great with Gus Edwards and Jackson carrying the ball. The Falcons are atrocious against the run allowing the 8th most yards and 5th most TDs on the ground.

While the Falcons have plenty of playmakers, they face a Baltimore defense that has allowed the second fewest passing yards and third fewest rushing yards. The right team was favored when the line opened.

Take Baltimore on the field.

Pick: Ravens ML

Kansas City Chiefs -14.5 vs Oakland Raiders

This game features Andy Reid off of a bye-week against Jon Gruden and his 37 fullbacks. Reid is 16-2 SU and 13-6 ATS off of a bye week but only 3-2 with with the Chiefs. This Kansas City team is a different animal. They are 8-2-1 ATS while Oakland is measly 3-8 and 1-4 over their last 5.

While I do have some fear we see a game like KC had against the Cardinals where they win but the game is weird and the score is closer than some think, I think they want to get rid of the bad taste in their mouth after their Monday Night loss to the Rams two weeks ago.

Take Kansas City minus whatever, even on the road. They may sprinkle in some reserves in this game but they will win and cover with ease.

Pick: Kansas City -14.5

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