NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 12

Welcome to week twelve of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  Last week was a tough one for our series.  Our pick of the week, the Atlanta Falcons, lost on a last second field goal, and our alternate picks went 1-1.  If you are still alive at this point in the season, congratulations, that is no small feat.  Read on and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

The Bengals and Ravens game came down to three points.  The Vikings and Bears game came down to five points.  The Broncos and Chargers game was decided by only one point.  With the exception of the Colts demolishing the Titans, all the other division games last week were very close including a Broncos upset over a red-hot Chargers team.  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
  • Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
  • Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
  • Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
  • New England Patriots at New York Jets
  • New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
  • Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
  • Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

Last week prime time included games for the ages.  The Seahawks took down the Packers by a field goal on Thursday.  The Bears held off the Vikings by less than a touchdown on Sunday.  Then on Monday we got the game of the year, where the Rams barely edged out the Chiefs in a matchup where both teams scored more than 50 points.  Talk about exciting.  Talk about games I want nothing to do with in this series.  Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (Thanksgiving)
  • Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (Thanksgiving)
  • Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (Thanksgiving)
  • Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
  • Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Home teams were very successful last weekend.  Seattle pulled off the upset over Green Bay.  The Giants won only their third game of the season against Tampa Bay.  Even the Lions won over the Panthers in front of the Detroit faithful.  Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
  • Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Los Angeles Chargers over the Arizona Cardinals

It’s quite amazing we haven’t picked the Chargers yet this deep into the season, but they have an unbeatable matchup this weekend.  The Cardinals lost last week to a team many considered the worst in the league, and LA comes off a tough division loss last week.  I expect LA to rebound in a strong way, making a statement against Arizona.

Other options I like this week:

  • Baltimore Ravens over the Oakland Raiders

Could the Raiders really win two in a row?  Sure.  Are they going to?  My money is on no.  Baltimore is in the thick of the playoff race, and I don’t expect them to let a team like the Raiders put a damper on their post-season plans.

  • Indianapolis Colts over the Miami Dolphins

The fan in me hopes I am wrong here, but the realist in me saw how dominant the Colts were last week, and Miami hasn’t scored an offensive touchdown in a very, very long time.  Chalk up a victory for the Colts in this one.

 

Overall record: 25-8

Last week record: 1-2

 

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

https://twitter.com/DE_aaron

Thanks for reading!

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: