Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Panthers Christian McCaffery

Welcome to Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread. Aaron looks to stay hot as I look to rebound in a big way. More on my plan in a minute. Each week we are here to make 3 picks ATS to help you with a NFL pools or betting at your favorite establishment.

This week Aaron and I have a common pick, which didn’t go so well last week. We also go heads up in a game and give you thoughts on two more contests. With that in mind, lets recap last week and look forward to Week 11!

Kyle’s reaction:  My Week 10 picks were terrible. Atlanta, Cincinnati, and Tampa Bay were all over before they even started. An 0-3 Week 10 has dropped me to 12-16-2 for the year.

With that in mind, welcome to George Costanza week! George famously spent an entire episode doing the opposite because things were going so poorly for him. He realized his instincts were continually putting him in bad spots. As he started to do the opposite things started to turn around.

With my picks going poorly over the past couple weeks and the season as a whole tbh, I am going to follow the advice of Costanza and do the opposite. Let’s find some winners!

Aaron’s reaction: 2-1 last week which marks the 5th week in a row where I’ve hit at least 2 out of 3 games. The Seahawks did exactly what I thought they would and kept it very tight against the Rams. They are a team I’ll be checking every week for deflated lines.

The Buccaneers finally dropped an offensive dud – not sure whether to chalk it up to the Skins’ defense or poor Fitzmagic… either way, that was a rough loss. The Chargers started out slow and I thought I might have to put my tail between my legs there, but the Raiders are the worst team in football and allowed the Chargers to cover with ease.

Dating back to the start of 2017, I’m now 18/23 on my 1st pick (lock of the week). Remember when we had the highest NFL total ever earlier this season? Rams and Chiefs are shattering that mark already – what a MNF we are about to have!

Week 10 results:

Aaron: 2-1-0
Kyle: 0-3-0

On the season:

Aaron : 20-9-1
Kyle : 12-16-2

Let’s get to the $:

Aaron’s Picks:

Carolina Panthers -4.5 @ Detroit Lions

I liked the Lions a lot this year – I really thought Patricia was going to have a great 1st year story. I’ve picked the Lions three times already (Week 2, Week 4, and Week 7) and won on all 3 picks.

In weeks 3-7, they rushed the ball an average of 29 times per game (33, 20 in a L, 28, 35). In week 8 against Seattle, they put it on the ground 13 times – LOSS. Week 9 against Minnesota, 24 total carries but 5 of those were Stafford and 2 were end arounds – LOSS. Last week against the Bears, you guessed it, 24 times on the ground in another loss.

It doesn’t help that LeGarrette Blount sucks, but this team needs the running game to open up the pass for Stafford. Carolina has this Luke Kuechly guy – ever heard of him? He leads the 9th ranked rushing defense in the league.

I haven’t even mentioned how Carolina, a top 10 team in the NFL, lost by 30 last week. They are out for revenge and are chasing the Saints (who they still play twice). They are going to win this game. It might be close with the 4 points, but I can see the Panthers winning by two scores as well.

Pick: Panthers -4.5

Minnesota Vikings +2.5 @ Chicago Bears

First off, I cannot wait for this game. I’ve been preaching about the Bears since August, drafted every single one of their players throughout my many fantasy leagues, and have been rewarded for it in almost every game this season.

Although the Bears wins haven’t come against great teams, they still have the 4th largest win differential in the league behind only the Chiefs, Rams, and Saints. That’s some good company to be in. Allen Robinson is healthy again and looks great last week.

The Vikings however are coming off a bye and have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. I expect their defense to come out strong and force Trubisky into some mistakes. Cook and Murray are going to touch the ball early and often, establishing the pace of the game. This should minimize the effect of Mack and Smith in the pass rush, allowing Minnesota to control this gameflow. Diggs and Thielen should benefit from the extra week of rest.

And the most important factor I believe is the Sunday Night effect. This is a primetime conference game in the 2nd half of the season. I think the Vikings are more experienced and well-equipped to handle a game like this.

Pick: Vikings +2.5

Tennessee Titans +2 @ Indianapolis Colts

Outside of the deteriorating Jaguars, the AFC South is hot right now. The Texans have won 6 straight, the Titans have won their last 2, and the Colts their last 3. The Titans took down Dallas in Jerryworld and embarrassed the Patriots last week at home. Mariota is looking better and better every week and now looks fully healthy.

Andrew Luck has put up some gaudy numbers the last 3 weeks (10 TD’s, 1 INT). I think the public is really hopping on the Luck bandwagon right now. The dude is very skilled but his last 3 games were against Buffalo, Oakland, and the sliding Jags. He played the Pats in week 5 and threw 2 INT’s. The Jets took the ball from him 3 times the following week.

The Titans boast one of the league’s best passing defense – giving up only 11 TD’s in 9 games. Oh yeah, they’ve also given up the least amount of points in the NFL this year! You’re lying if you knew that one.

There’s an argument to be made for the Titans coming off an emotional win against the Pats, but I think they control this game and win by a field goal.

Pick: Titans+2

Cam Newton

Streeter Lecka – Getty Images

Kyle’s picks:

Carolina Panthers -4.5 at Detroit Lions

This season has been going poorly for the Detroit Lions and it seems as if the wheels are about to come off. They come into this game after losing 3 straight games and failing to cover in all of them.

The Panthers on the other hand are looking to rebound after getting embarrassed on Thursday Night football, losing 52-21. Carolina is a really good team that is playoff bound and can make noise when they get in. Christian McCaffery has been incredible and Cam Newton is a dark-horse MVP candidate.

Normally I would be all over the Lions in this spot assuming it is too many points at home, so I will take the Panthers -4.5. Carolina should win this game by at least a TD.

Pick: Panthers -4.5

Chicago Bears -2.5 vs Minnesota Vikings

This game has massive implications for the NFC North playoff race. While many thought it would be Green Bay being the biggest roadblock for the Vikings in the North this season, it has been the resurgent Bears who might have an above average QB to go with a stellar defense led by Khalil Mack.

Minnesota, like Chicago comes into this game after beating the hapless Lions. The bye week should of allowed Stefon Diggs to get healthy and Dalvin Cook to be close to 100%.

And still, I’m backing the Bears in this spot. While the offensive weapons both teams have are impressive, this game comes down to defense. The total is at 44.5 and going down. I expect a low scoring game that the ends with the home team getting the win.

Pick: Bears -2.5

New Orleans Saints -9 vs Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles are not nearly the same team as they were last season. Between injuries, a defense that has issues and the rash of injuries to their secondary they have been a mess.

Now they have to go down to New Orleans and face a Saints team that looks all but unstoppable.They have only lost one game all season which came back in Week 1 and they have covered 7 straight.

Philadelphia on the other hand has only won 4 games and covered 3. Even with the Golden Tate trade, this is a team headed in the wrong direction. While I would typically fade the Saints in this spot, during Constanza week I’m yelling “Geaux Saints” up and down Bourbon Street.

Pick: Saints -9

Good luck in Week 11!

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