Week 11 TNF Fantasy Preview

WARNING!  This Week 11 TNF Fantasy Preview of the Green Bay Packers at the Seattle Seahawks has some spicy takes!  I’m talking liquid hot magma, center of a hot pocket HOT takes.  Just thought I would let you know now.  Be warned.

Week 11 TNF Fantasy Preview 4-4-1 Green Bay Packers at 4-4 Seattle Seahawks

There is so much happening in this matchup, I don’t know where to start. Out of the last six meetings between these two teams, the Packers and the Seahawks are tied at 3-3, with Seahawks winning the first three bouts and the Packers winning the following three.

It is also interesting to point out the those three Seahawks wins against the Packers between 2012 and 2014, were in Seattle.  Their next three losses to the Packers?  You guessed it, at Lambeau field.

I think we all remember the officiating holdout that resulted in the “Fail Mary” in 2012.  Let’s not forget the stunning comeback against the Packers four years ago in the NFC Championship game.  Aaron Rodgers was reported to say that game would be hard to forget.

I asked former  Seattle Seahawks wide reciever, Nate Burleson, his thoughts on Thursday’s matchup.  The Packers and the Seahawks are, “Two teams that routinely get overlooked because of their markets they play in so these squads go all in when they meet up.”

“The dynamic of having two top tier Quarterbacks who have been to the Lombardi Mountain Top, gives this specific matchup the chance to be one for the ages. They both possess the ability to make every throw and the unique skill set of using their legs. Expect a high scoring highlight filled game with a twist in the end like the movie 6th Sense.”

Um…. need I say more?  That pretty sums it up.

Rivalry aside, let’s look at their record which is nearly tied with the Packers at 4-4-1 and the Seahawks at 4-4.  This game is a crucial win for both teams.

All right, we have determined this game is going to be exciting (thank you sweet baby Jesus for avoiding another Thursday night snooze fest), but what does this mean for the TNF Fantasy Preview?

Put on your fire retardant suit, Rachel Ray silicon oven mitts, and ballistic goggles because we are going to dive in to a few pretty fiery takes in this breakdown.

Seahawks QB: Russell Wilson

 Comp%YdsTDINTRush TDW-L
Regular Season 5 games57.93%9257602-3
Post Season 1 game48.28209141W

Per Pro Football Reference

The whole situation with Russell Wilson against the Green Bay Packers is just gross.  I don’t care if the match-up is tied at 3-3.  Less than a 60% completion percentage, a combined 10 interceptions in only 3 total games and no more than 2 touchdowns per game which only happened 3 times in 6 meetings.

It’s not surprising that Wilson is ranked 10th this week, going up against the Packers who are ranked 8th best in points against the quarterback, per ESPN.

If you have any quarterbacks listed on FantasyPros rankings such as, oh, Aaron Rodgers, then start them.  However, thanks to the NFL scheduling six teams on a bye, you may have no other choice but to start Russell Wilson.  There just aren’t better options on the wire, especially after your leaguemates duked it out Hunger Games style to get what meager pickings there may have been.

On top of all that, the box scores over six matchups between Russell Wilson and the Packers are equally gross.  With the exception of 2014, when the Seahawks won 36-16 in the regular season and then 29-22 in the post season, the other 4 matchups saw 17 points and less from the Seahawks.

Week 11 TNF Fantasy Preview Analysis: On paper, this looks bad for Wilson, but you most likely have to start him.  I know I do, so if you are in this misery, I will be right there with you.

WARNING!  HOT TAKE!  OOOOOHHHHH!!!!!  I AM SO EXCITED!  I have absolutely zero numerical evidence to support why I think Wilson will have an awesome game, other than my gut.  The Seahawks desperately need to snap their 2-game losing streak, and this game is at home at CenturyLink.  I think we see the Russell Wilson of old who throws two TDs and sneaks into the end zone for a rushing touchdown.  Call me crazy.  I’m cool with it.

If you have a better quarterback, I will advise you to start them instead.  I feel obligated to say this so you don’t @stepmomlauren me all angry because Wilson sucked.  These are hot takes.  You have been warned.

Packers QB: Aaron Rodgers

Er, crucial win, one game out of a two game losing streak, bitterness…Fail Mary…NFC Championship….ranked 5th.

Week 11 TNF Fantasy Preview: Well, this is easy.  Start Aaron Rodgers.

Seahawks RBs: Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, & Mike Davis

 Rush
Att
Rush
Yds
Rush
TDs
Pass
Tgt
Pass
Rec
Pass
Yds
Pass
TD
Total
Tchs
Chris Carson1114972118800119
Rashaad Penny54254112975063
Mike Davis7834632621110199

Per Pro Football Reference

Oy.  Well, I guess the Rashaad Penny experiment is back.  “Today he busted out,” Pete Carrol said.  “I thought today he needed it so badly  He knows he’s a great player.  He just hasn’t been able to demonstrate it.”

(Sigh).  Sorry, Mike Davis owners.  We have been Pete Carrol’d.

I digress.

In all seriousness, which RB2 should you be starting?  Let’s take a look at the Packers defense to get a better idea.  They are ranked 13th in total points against on ESPN.  They can be exploited in the run game, allowing seven rushing touchdowns so far this season.

This is great for Carson and Penny owners, but not so great for the Davis owners.  Per Pro Football Reference, Davis seems to be the pass catching running back with 26 targets.  Unfortunately, the Packers’ defense has only allowed 41 receptions for 359 yards and only 1 touchdown.

Week 11 TNF Fantasy Preview: According to Brian Schottenheimer, Carson is expected to play on Thursday.  I am still going to keep an eye on his status, just in case.  So, fire up Carson if he plays, but understand it could be scary.  Because of the Packers’ defense against the pass, I think this is going to be a Rashaad Penny day, and Mike Davis is going to take a back seat as the RB3 in this matchup.

Packers RBs: Aaron Jones & Jamaal Williams

Thank goodness we all don’t have to deal with the three-headed monster of a backfield anymore.  And it’s about time head coach Mike McCarthy finally released the Kracken!

Breaking down the total numbers between Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams is a fruitless endeavor.  The breakdown is nearly identical between the two players, with the exception of Jones’ 494 rushing yards to Williams’ 270, and Jones’ 4 TDs compared to Williams’ 1.  Jones made up the difference in just one game last week against Miami with 15 carries for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Equal numbers does not mean equal roles.  Finally!

Week 11 TNF Fantasy Preview:  Aaron Rodgers wants to continue to give Jones more opportunities, so unless McCarthy wants to ignore the real head coach of the Packers, Aaron Jones should have another great game against the Seahawks.

You can drop Williams if you haven’t done so already.

Seahawks WRs: Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin, & David Moore

 TgtsRecYdsTDsTchsSnap%
Tyler Lockett443348373986.22%
Doug Baldwin29232750!2359.83%
David Moore241425341553.11%

Per Pro Football Reference

What bizzaro world do we live in, that Angry Doug Baldwin has yet to score a touchdown?  What is happening?  He was hurt in the beginning of the season, yes.  The Seahawks are identifying with a run-first offensive, I get it.  But still.  No touchdowns?  (Warning!  Hot take to follow.)

Clearly, Tyler Lockett is the preferred end zone target, as well as being on the field 86.22% of the time.  Lockett is also leading in touches, with 39 compared to Baldwin’s 23 and Moore’s 15.  The Packers’ defense, ranked 23rd in points against on ESPN, has allowed 106 receptions for 1465 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Week 11 TNF Fantasy Preview Analysis: Start Tyler Lockett, clearly.  On paper, Baldwin and Moore are both avoidable.  On paper, even though Baldwin is healthy, you can still keep him on your bench for a better matchup.  It would certainly be the smart play.

WARNING: HOT TAKE!  Doug Baldwin is healthy!  Yay!  I think Doug Baldwin will finally find the end zone this week with at least one touchdown and quite possibly scoring two.

Packers WRs: Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, & Marquez Valdez-Scantling (MVS)

 TgtsRecTdsTDsTchSnap%
Davante Adams946278796293.35%
Randall Cobb382625812643.44%
MVS392340222358.67%

***Randall Cobb ruled OUT Week 11 with a hamstring injury – Did not travel with the team***

Per Pro Football Reference

The Legion of Boom is more like The Legion of Gloom, ranked 20th against wide receivers on ESPN, allowing 119 receptions for 1444 yards and 9 touchdowns.  Even so, it’s pretty clear that Davante Adams is a must start, especially considering Randall Cobb has been ruled OUT for Week 11 due to a hamstring injury, and Geronimo Allison is on injured reserve with a groin injury.

That further boosts Valdez-Scantling, who Aaron Rodgers clearly trusts.  Valdez-Scantling actually tied Adams in targets and hauled in 2 more receptions than Adams but did not find the end zone.  Still, he is a solid WR3 this week.

We may also see a flash here or there of Equanimeous St. Brown, but it’s not worth chasing for fantasy owners.

Week 11 TNF Fantasy Preview: Feel good starting Adams and MVS.  It is possible Rodgers will rely on the other Aaron (Aaron Jones), but he will still target both WRs in the passing game.

Seahawks TE: Nick Vannett

Yes, I know there are other tight ends on the team like Ed Dickson (11.6% of snaps) and Tyrone Swoops (4.54% of snaps).  But, there you go.

Unfortunately, Vannett is facing the 3rd best defense against the tight end.  They have only allowed 34 receptions the whole year for 410 yards and ZERO touchdowns.

Week 11 TNF Fantasy Preview: Meh…. I don’t like it.  With 6 teams on a bye, you may have to.  Just don’t expect much and hope I’m wrong.

Packers TE: Jimmy Graham

Oh my goodness gracious!  Is this finally the game where Jimmy Graham becomes fantasy relevant?  Well… the Seahawks rank 6th against the tight end only allowing 32 receptions and 324 yards.  However, they have allowed 3 touchdowns.

Week 11 TNF Fantasy Preview:  On paper, this looks like another poor showing will be eminent.  You probably have to play him, so I am sorry.  Or, am I….?

WARNING: HOT TAKE!  Jimmy Graham will find the end zone and finish as a top ten tight end in Week 11.  Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb are both out.  Aaron Jones is more of the line from scrimmage runner as opposed to a pass catching back.  Who else is going to catch the ball?  Rodgers has to throw it to someone besides Davante Adams and Marquez Valdez-Scantling.  I am just really hoping it’s Graham and I don’t sound like a weirdo.

Packers & Seahawks DST

Eeehhh…. Seattle and Green Bay are ranked 14th and 16th respectively on FantasyPros.  If you absolutely have to choose between either of these defenses, then I would go with the rankings here and say, Seattle.  There is still potential for Green Bay, who have forced 10 interceptions during their 6 meetings with the Seahawks.

 

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