NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 11

Welcome to week eleven of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  Last week, we got back to 3-0.  While the Chiefs didn’t cover the spread, they did all we needed to stay alive, and both the Packers and Rams won in their respective games to give us a perfect week ten.  For those of you lucky enough to be alive this late in your season, read on and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

Last weekend, we saw Indy beat the Jags, a team that was once a Super Bowl contender.  We saw a Matt Barkley led Bills team absolutely demolish a Jets team that seems to be running out of answers.  We even seen the Seahawks give the Rams a run for their money in L.A.  All of that seems like nothing compared to the Cowboys beating the defending Super Bowl champions in Philly.  Last week was a great example of why we don’t pick division games above all else.  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
  • Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
  • Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
  • Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

We already hit on the Cowboys’ upset over the Eagles, but let’s not forget that the Steelers absolutely manhandled a good Panthers team on Thursday, while the Giants actually did enough right to secure a win in regulation.  Three very different games, with outcomes harder to predict than most.  Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
  • Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
  • Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

The Browns beat the Falcons in front of the Cleveland faithful.  The Titans beat the Patriots in the comforts of their Tennessee home.  Do I really need any more proof that home field matters?  Be aware, and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
  • Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Houston Texans at Washington Redskins

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Atlanta Falcons over the Dallas Cowboys

While the Falcons just lost to the worst team in football last year, and the Cowboys just beat the best team in football last year, I still think Atlanta is the team to pick this week.  The Falcons have too much talent to play consistently like they did last week and I think the Cowboys win last week was a bit of a fluke.   While I do expect this game to be close, I expect the Falcons to be victorious when the final whistle blows.

Other options I like this week:

  • New Orleans Saints over the Philadelphia Eagles

Last week, we went with the Rams as an alternate, just because L.A. is that good.  This week is the same theme.  The Saints are just really, really good, and the Eagles seem to be struggling finding their identity.  The Super Bowl hangover seems real.

  • Arizona Cardinals over the Oakland Raiders

Here is a pick for those of you who have already taken some bigger favorites such as Atlanta and New Orleans earlier in the season.  While Arizona may not be the best team, their young QB seems to be improving week over week, and the Raiders may be the worst team in football right now.  While it is a risky pick, the Cardinals have some momentum on their side.

 

Overall record: 24-6

Last week record: 3-0

 

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

https://twitter.com/DE_aaron

Thanks for reading!

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