Week 9 TNF Fantasy Preview

Week 9 TNF Fantasy Preview

– by Stepmom Lauren

My mom always told me that if I didn’t have anything nice to say, then I shouldn’t say anything at all.

So, that wraps up my Week 9 TNF Fantasy Preview article of the 1-6 Oakland Raiders at the 1-7 San Francisco 49ers.

The end.

Who am I kidding?  Are you all ready for the Battle of the Barf!?  I mean, Bay!  Battle of the Bay.

About the only thing scarier than Jon Gruden dressing up as Chucky for Halloween, is the Oakland Raiders and the San Francisco 49ers battling for 31st place.  Actually, scratch that.  The idea of Nick Mullens (I know, who?) or Tom Savage starting as the 49ers quarterback if C.J. Beathard can’t play.

For real football, this game is pretty much worthless, but there are fantasy gems and also potential issues in this TNF matchup.  When there are two defenses that are ranked 28th (San Francisco) and 31st (Oakland) according to FantasyPros, that should mean there has to be some fantasy points, right?

(Sigh). That’s hard to say, especially since these teams have combined for only 2 wins in the last 8 weeks. Combined. Ugh.  And what happens to the San Francisco offense if they have to rely on a backup quarterback?

At least Raiders and 49ers fans can take solace knowing the rest of the country will have to suffer through this game with them.

QB – Derek Carr – Oakland Raiders

Derek Carr is rolling into San Francisco coming off a huge game against the Colts.  Expect Carr to keep the momentum going against a 27th ranked 49ers defense, according to Pro Football Reference.

For crying out loud, they let Rosen throw for 252 yards with 2 touchdowns.

For week 9, Sporting News has Carr ranked above players such as Joe Flacco and Matt Stafford, but still trailing behind QBs like Baker Mayfield, Mitch Trubisky, and DeShaun Watson.

Still, in this week 9 bye-pocolypse, Carr is a solid start against the 49ers.

Week 9 TNF Fantasy Preview Analysis:  Expect momentum to continue against a weak 49ers defense.  However!  If Nick Mullens or Tom Savage gets the start against the Raiders, I would avoid Carr.  He won’t be playing from behind and be forced to throw the football.  This will also impact Doug Martin (stock up) and Jalen Richard (stock down).

QBs – C.J. Beathard – San Francisco

(Tee hee. Beathard.) Oh, come on.  All of you are thinking the same thing, don’t judge me.

Beathard (tee hee) is actually a serviceable streaming option this week against the 24th ranked defense against QBs, according to Pro Football Reference.  The Raiders have allowed 15 touchdowns, created only 4 interceptions, and even allowed a QB rushing touchdown.

Beathard also has a plethora of offensive weapons at his disposal and he is not afraid to target them.

Week 9 TNF Fantasy Preview Analysis:  There are better options on the waiver wire… ahem, like Derek Carr… but if you’re in a deeper league and suffering through this bye week, Beathard can be a streaming option.  Just keep an eye on his status!

RBs – Doug Martin & Jalen Richard – Oakland Raiders

First of all.  Let me make one thing clear. Richard is pronounced ree-SHARD.  Not RICH-ard.  Drives me nuts.  Anyway, here are some numbers per Pro Football Reference

Doug Martin Jalen ree-SHARD
Rush Attempts 40 13
Rush Yards 171 46
Rush Touchdowns 0 0
Receiving Targets 7 45
Receiving Receptions 6 39
Receiving Yards 22 303
Receiving Touchdowns 0 0
Total Touches 46 52
Snap Percentage 39.91 % 18.03%

Per Pro Football Reference

It is pretty clear here that Richard is the receiving back between the two of them, so I do like him in PPR, especially during the bye week. With Marshawn Lynch on IR, you would think that Doug Martin would have more production. Martin gets the goal line work and he out-touched Richard 15-10 against the Colts.  If Doug Martin is going to have a good game, this is one of his best opportunities, especially if Beathard is sidelined.

On the defensive side, the 49ers have allowed 7 rushing touchdowns and 3 receiving touchdowns to running backs this year and are ranked 21st against running backs, according to ESPN.

Week 9 TNF Fantasy Preview Analysis:  I believe Martin’s production will be dependent on their opponent’s quarterback.  If Beathard plays, I think Carr will need to throw the ball to Richard and Jared Cook, relying less on Martin.  If either Mullens or Savage starts, Doug Martin’s production will increase and Jalen Richard’s usage will decrease.

RBs – Matt Breida, Alfred Morris, Raheem Mostert, & Kyle Juszcyk – San Francisco 49ers

Matt Breida Alfred Morris R. Mostert Kyle Juszcyk
Rush Attempts 84 77 27 4
Rush Yards 487 281 175 17
Rush TDs 2 1 0 0
Rec. Targets 13 11 7 27
Receptions 11 6 6 19
Rec. Yards 90 66 25 245
Rec. TDs 1 0 0 1
Touches 95 83 33 23
Snap % 36.8% 33.09% 14.3% 64.13%

Per Pro Football Reference

I don’t understand anything about the 49ers running backs.  I don’t even understand Breida.  Just take a week off!  We know you’re tough.  Rest, give the other 3 running backs a change at fantasy relevancy, and just chill for a week.

This begs the question.  Do you start Breida? He is still banged up, on a short week, and only averaged 2.63 yards last week against Arizona.

Speaking of the Arizona game, where the heck was Mostert?  He completely snipered Alfred Morris’ production then disappears the following week.  And Kyle Juszcyk, where are you, dude?  He is on 64.13% of the snaps, has 19 receptions on 27 targets with 245 yards… and 1 touchdown?

Aargh – so what do fantasy owners do here?  Well, for starters, pray that Breida sits a game.  That way you won’t have to deal with the headache of starting of him.  If he does play, I expect to get a limited amount of production due to his injury and he will also make either Mostert or Morris irrelevant.  Which one?  I have no idea.

Week 9 TNF Fantasy Preview Analysis: Start Breida if you have to, but temper expectations.  Unless Breida is ruled out, I would stay away from Morris, Mostert, and Juszcyk.

WRs – Jordy Nelson, Martavis Bryant, Seth Roberts, & Brandon LaFell – Oakland Raiders

Jordy Nelson Martavis Bryant Seth Roberts B. LaFell
Targets 35 21 26 4
Receptions 23 14 17 3
Yards 337 220 180 39
Touchdowns 3 0 2 1
Touches 23 15 17 3
Snap % 87.12% 35.19% 42.7% 18.45%

Per Pro Football Reference

This whole Oakland wide receiver situation SUCKS for fantasy football owners.  This really should be a good match up since the 49ers have allowed 97 receptions for 1419 yards and a whopping 11 touchdowns.  But, I can’t trust any of them.

Bryant was supposed to have this huge workload with Amari Cooper traded off to Dallas.  He had zero targets and only 7 snaps.  ZERO targets.  Jordy Nelson only caught 1 of his 4 targets but was pretty much invisible against the Colts.  How did Carr suddenly make Brandon LaFell a “thing”?  And 2 touchdowns to Seth Roberts?  #ThatHelpsNoOne – Courtesy of @AdamRank.

Maybe Gruden had a senior moment and forgot he had wide receivers not named Amari Cooper.  Jared Cook and Jalen Richard are getting the chunk of the targets with 48 and 45 respectively.  If this keeps up, we will continue to see the wide receiver carousel turn.  Good luck guessing which one gets the touchdowns.

Week 9 TNF Fantasy Preview Analysis:  Ugh, just stay away.  If any of these receivers has a game, it could be Jordy Nelson.  Operative word being “could”.  Again, keep an eye on the 49ers quarterback.  Carr should not need to throw as much if they rely on the run.

WRs – Marquis Goodwin, Pierre Garcon, Kendrick Bourne & Trent Taylor – San Francisco 49ers

Marquis Goodwin Pierre Garcon Kendrick Bourne Trent Taylor
Targets 23 40 29 28
Receptions 12 21 17 18
Yards 259 230 191 138
Touchdowns 4 0 2 1
Touches 15 21 3 18
Snap % 49.63% 63.75% 37.55% 36.8%

Per Pro Football Reference

Oakland’s defense is ranked 21st against wide receivers, according to ESPN, and has allowed 82 receptions for 1211 yards and 9 touchdowns. With that being said, there are a few things to keep in mind with these receivers.

Goodwin has averaged 4 targets since week 3 and managed to score 3 long touchdowns on those targets.  He is a boom/bust player with potential bust hosing the Raiders.

Pierre Garcon is questionable with a shoulder and knee injury and did not play Sunday, which helps boost opportunities for Kendrick Bourne or Trent Taylor.

Week 9 TNF Fantasy Preview Analysis: If you are suffering the bye-week-blues, Marquis Goodwin does have potential for a boom game only if C.J. Beathard is the quarterback.  If not, sit him.  Until we know more about Garcon, I would stay away from him as well as Bourne and Kendrick.

TEs – Jared Cook – Oakland Raiders & George Kittle – San Francisco 49ers

Jared Cook George Kittle
Targets 48 57
Receptions 36 37
Yards 474 584
Touchdowns 3 2
Touches 36 37
Snap % 82.4% 85.14%

Per Pro Football Reference

Between the bye-pocolypse and the dumpster fire that is the tight end landscape, fantasy owners should feel pretty good about these two tight ends.  Carr peppers Cook with targets and Beathard has an excellent rapport with his former roommate Kittle.  But, what about the quarterback situation?  I think even with either Nick Mullens or Tom Savage, you can still get some fantasy value out of Kittle.

Week 9 TNF Fantasy Preview Analysis: Definitely feel good about starting both of these tight ends in TNF.  Now that I have put that out in the universe, they will probably stink.  Sorry.

Defenses – Oakland Raiders & San Francisco 49ers

Ah… thanks, but no thanks. I prefer poop to stay out in the yard and not on my fantasy football roster.  I will stay away from the Raiders even if Beathard is sidelined.  They just cannot seem to get to the quarterback.

 

I want to hear from you!  Follow me on twitter @stepmomlauren or find me on Facebook at https://facebook.com/stepmomlauren

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