Aaron’s reaction: Another solid week in the books! The Colts cruised to a blowout win as predicted and Detroit handled the Dolphins easily. My reach-of-the-week was the Niners over the Rams… and, well, we don’t need to talk about how that ended.
I don’t think I’ve mentioned this before, but my picks are in order of confidence. Since the start of 2017, I’ve hit 75% (15/20) confidence #1 picks. I’m 64% and 35% respectively for my #2 and #3 picks, so if you don’t want to hit all my games… you know where to put your money!
Kyle’s reaction: Week 7 was an improvement on Week 6 but just barely. The Lions took me and Aaron to covertown. I was feeling great about my Baltimore pick for 3.5 quarters and then the Saints worked their magic to not only cover but win outright. And the Bills, well they never had a chace. Its to domiante Week 8 and get my record back over .500 for the season.
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Week 7 results:
On the season:
Aaron : 13-7-1
Kyle : 9-10-2
With Week 7 in the books, Aaron is on the tee for Week 8. Let’s get to the $!
Green Bay Packers +9.5 @ Los Angeles Rams
Aaron Rodgers getting 9.5 points? What is going on here? It’s one thing to give Rodgers more than a TD, but it’s a whole other thing to give that with the Pack-attack coming off a bye.
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I said it last week and I’ll say it again – the Rams will lose a game or two this year. This feels like it could be the one. Mike McCarthy is 9-2 ATS coming off a bye and 10-4 straight up. Maybe the Pack hasn’t played the best team in the league often after the bye, but they will come prepared and make this a game.
Pick: Packers +9.5
Cincinnati Bengals -4.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bengals have had an interesting season so far. They are 4-3 overall and are coming off a 45-10 stinker at Arrowhead against the Chiefs. They have wins against mostly average teams (+ Baltimore) and have lost against top 10 teams in Kansas City, Carolina, and Pittsburgh.
The Bengals are the team that beats up on bad teams and cannot hang with the top dogs. This is a great bounce-back game – it’s at home, coming off a blowout, and the Bucs will be playing without their defensive captain Kwon Alexander.
I think this turns into a shootout and the Bengals win by at least a touchdown. The total currently sits at 54 and I think that could rise – hit the over too while you can.
Pick: Bengals -4.5
Indianapolis Colts -3 @ Oakland Raiders
I’ve picked the Colts twice and they’ve covered twice. Is that not what you came here to read? Look, we all know about the dumpster fire that is Gruden and the Raiders. I love Gruden personally and think he will turn this team around… in a year or two. The locker room is divided, they are losing players left and right, and Derek Carr just isn’t good.
Meanwhile, the Colts are 2-5 but have looked quite good in some of their recent games. Their losses have came to the Bengals, Eagles, Texans, Patriots, and the Jets. One team doesn’t quite belong in that category but you get the point. They just put a whoopin’ on a weak Bills team and I think they do the same to the Raiders. I gave you my #3 pick stats above but this is a confident one!
Pick: Colts -3
Denver Broncos +10 at Kansas City Chiefs
I’m probably crazy for getting in front of the machine that is the Kansas City Chiefs offense but here we are. The Chiefs have been incredible this season including a perfect 7-0 against the spread.
This week they are at home once again to face the Denver Broncos who are coming into this spot off a dominating performance on Thursday night football. These two teams have already faced each other once this season. The Bronco defense did one of the best jobs slowing down Patrick Mahomes thus far.
While I think the Chiefs win this game, I expect Denver to do enough on both sides of the ball to keep this game within 10 points.
Vegas has my back in this spot. Despite getting 64% of the bets in this match-up, the Chiefs are only getting 23% of the money is this spot. The Chiefs are becoming a very public team and with good reason. However, their ATS run has to come to an end with these inflated lines.
Pick: Broncos +10
Seattle Seahawks +3 at Detroit Lions
The Seattle Seahawks are trending in the right direction. The run game is gaining traction between Chris Carson, Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny. Doug Baldwin finally seems to be getting healthy to help out QB Russell Wilson. He had 6 catches for 91 yards in their last game against the Raiders. The bye week should give them more time to recover and re-tool.
The Lions return home after a win in Miami a week ago. They have only failed to cover once this season which came all the way back in Week 1. We will see how much Damon “Snacks” Harrison can do for the abysmal rush D for Detroit.
I expect the Seahawks to do enough on both sides of the ball to keep this game close and pull out a victory on the road.
Pick: Seahawks +3
Buffalo Bills +14 vs New England Patriots
Well this is it. I think I have finally lost all of my marbles. I am taking a Bills team that will be starting Derek Anderson at QB. One that is coming off of a dismantling a week ago against the Indianapolis Colts. But one that is a underdog in a prime time game.
14 points feels like a lot of points for a home team to be getting. Even one that is as bad as the Bills are and as good as the Patriots are. It will likely be four quarter sweat that requires a late score but the backdoor will be open for Mr. Anderson. Take the Bills and buckle up.
Pick: Bills +14
Good luck in Week 8!