NFL Against the Spread Picks: Week 7, 2018

Colts Andrew Luck

Week 7 is here and its time to make some NFL against the spread picks. For Aaron, its a chance to stay and hot. For me, its a chance to get back on track.

Aaron’s reaction: Well, not much to say after nailing all 3 picks! I didn’t feel more confident than usual, but it’s always nice when the picks are hot. I’m definitely feelin’ myself again this week, as I usually pick up steam during the middle of the season. Teams are figuring out who they are, the public overvalues records, and injuries start to make huge impacts in the flow of games.

Kyle’s reaction: My Week 6 picks could not have gone worse. Not was I 0-3 but all of them seemed dead from the jump. The Raiders could not muster any offense and both teams made errors in the red zone. The Titans were dominated from start to finish in 21-0 route at home. The Buccaneers made it a game and actually were a good pitch to DeSean Jackson away from scoring the game winning TD.

Week 7 is a chance to get back to my principals, like not picking for or against my team.

Week 6 results:

Aaron: 3-0-0
Kyle: 0-3-0

On the season:

Aaron : 11-6-1
Kyle : 8-8-2

With Week 6 of the NFL season in the rearview mirror, it is time to focus on Week 7. Aaron is on the tee after a 3-0 week. Let’s get to the $!

Aaron’s Picks:

Indianapolis Colts -7.5 vs. Buffalo Bills

The Colts aren’t that good of a team, but the Bills are worse. Couple that with the fact that Derek Anderson will be starting this game after being on the roster for 2 weeks and you have a classic blow up game. I feel this is exactly like the season opener against the Ravens (a game I picked and predicted to be an absolute blowout). Luck and the Colts are going to come out angry to get their 2nd win and demolish the Bills.

Pick: Colts -7.5

Detroit Lions -3 @ Miami Dolphins

Yes, I’m going with the Lions yet again. I think this is the 4th time in 7 weeks, but I’m 2-1 with them so far. Miami ranks in the bottom half of the league in almost every offense and defensive statistic, yet they are 4-2. They are coming off a crazy OT game against the Bears in which Osweiler lead the team to a victory.

Teams coming off emotional wins like that one are very susceptible to “back-to-earth” games. Osweiler is not a great QB and I think he played one of the best games of his career last week. Expect him to come crashing back down to earth and the Lions to come out firing.

Pick: Detroit -3

San Francisco 49ers +9.5 vs. LA Rams

The 49ers are currently 1-5. The Rams are 6-0. I believe the Rams are the best team in the league, but I don’t believe the Niners are the worst. I don’t think they are even in the bottom 5.

In fact, they have lost every game by single digits so far. Beathard is proving to be a serviceable replacement and they have playmakers all over the field at the moment. You can always count on a team like the Rams, who start undefeated, to lose a stinker. I think this stinker is at the hands of their division rival on the road. I think Kupp’s absence is going to limit Goff.

I’m not likely betting on the Niners straight up, but I am sort of telling you to. Worst case scenario feels like a Niners cover. Also taking the over in this game (my unofficial 4th pick for the week).

Pick: San Francisco +9.5

Kyle’s picks:

Tom Szczerbowski – Getty Images

Buffalo Bills +7.5 at Indianapolis Colts

This is simply too many points. These are both bad football teams that have major issues on both sides of the ball.

This week Derek Anderson will get the start for an injured Josh Allen. I actually trust Anderson to be more competent this week. Obviously he is on the backside of his career but he shouldn’t do anything to kill his team this week.

Buffalo has covered in 3 of their last 4 contests including two outright wins at Minnesota and against the Titans. They were big underdogs in both games.

The Colts on the other hand have failed to cover on 4 of their first 6 contests this season. They have also lost 5 of their 6 games outright this season. Indianapolis should not be a TD favorite over anyone.

This is going to be an ugly game that nobody should have to watch. I think the Bills can not only cover but a reasonable shot to win the game on the field. Sprinkle that moneyline if you so desire.

Pick: Buffalo +7.5

Detroit Lions -3 at Miami Dolphins

For me this play is as simple as fading Brock Osweiler.  If you want a crazy stat, Osweiler has made his first start for the Broncos, Texans and Dolphins against that very same Bears. He is 3-0 in those games.

You may say, “But Kyle, he was really good last week against the Bears.” I don’t care.

This week he and the Dolphins remain home to welcome a Lions team that is coming off of its bye week. It came at a good time for Detroit who needed to get healthy including for Kerryon Johnson who left their last game against the Packers with an ankle injury. He has been practicing and should play.

The Dolphins are coming off a miracle win against the Bears a week ago. It seemed as if Kenyan Drake coughed up the game with his fumble on the goal line at the end of regulation but questionable play calling and a subsequent missed FG from 52 yards out gave the Dolphins life.

I expect a different result from the Dolphins and Osweiler. We have seen the turnover machine Osweiler can be with a 35 to 29 TD/INT ratio for his career. I think the Lions defense makes plays and Stafford and company get a huge win on the road covering the 3 points.

Pick: Detroit -3

Baltimore Ravens -2.5 vs. New Orleans Saints

This game is going to be a very sharp v public game. Everyone who sees this line will be very confused how the Saints are 2.5 point underdogs against the Ravens. Despite getting 60% of the bets, New Orleans is only getting 36% of the money in this contest.

While the Saints are a really good team, they are predicated on running the ball. The Ravens are allowing the third fewest rushing yards per game this season and have only allowed 62 YPG in their last three contests.

New Orleans also has been good against the run but that has a lot to do with their atrocious pass defense. They are currently allowing the third most passing yards per game. Baltimore on the other hand is allowing the second fewest.

I expect Joe Flacco and the offense to be effective in the passing game and win a close game at home. I don’t hate the under in this game as well. A parlay with the Ravens and the under could be a great way to go.

Pick: Baltimore -2.5

Good luck in Week 7!

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