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NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 7

Welcome to Week 7 of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series!  Last week we hit two big accomplishments: we broke our 2-1 curse returning to our 3-0 ways, and we finally were able to pick the Vikings successfully.  Let’s try to go 3-0 two weeks in a row!  Read on and feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

While the Eagles easily handled the Giants, the other two division matchups last week were very entertaining.  The Falcons barely held off the Bucs 34-29, and the Steelers needed the final seconds to pull off their upset over their division rival in Cincinnati.  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
  • Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

Ignoring the Thursday night game, the other two primetime games were absolute thrillers.  Both were high scoring with both home teams kicking field goals in the final seconds.  Great to watch, not great to pick in Eliminator.  Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
  • Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
  • New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

To those repeat readers of this article, you all know that I am a very big Miami Dolphins fan.  This past week everyone’s “lock of the week” was the Chicago Bears over the Miami Dolphins.  The Bears were the hot team of the week, coming off a bye, on a three-game winning streak.  They had the best defensive player in football and they were going against a Miami offensive line that was suspect at best.  However, if this article has taught you anything, home field advantage is real, and the so-called “lock of the week” withered in the Miami heat.  Be aware and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
  • Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
  • Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets
  • Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (London)

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Indianapolis Colts over the Buffalo Bills

While it may not be the smartest to pick a 1-5 team for an eliminator challenge, the honest truth is there are not a lot of great options this week.  That being said, while the Colts have not won a lot of games, they have been very competitive, putting up 34 points on a good Jets defense last week.  Buffalo is uncertain at quarterback due to injuries and I think two scores by the Indy offense could put this game away early.

Other options I like this week:

  • Philadelphia Eagles over the Carolina Panthers

Philly continues to look better and better each week as Carson Wentz gets back up to speed.  Throw in a healthy Alshon Jeffrey and despite their lack of big-name running backs, I think Philly can put away a Carolina team that has not looked great the last couple weeks.

  • Atlanta Falcons over the New York Giants

On rare occasions I allow secondary options to break step 3 just due to bye weeks and lack of quality options.  If I’m going to break a rule, why not break it when a team is playing someone like the Giants who seem to be in an absolute downward spiral.  Pick with caution due to being prime time, but based on last Thursday, you may be safe here.

 

Overall record: 14-4

Week 6 record: 3-0

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

https://twitter.com/DE_aaron

Thanks for reading!

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