RB Attempts and Touches

By John Bush

RB Attempts and Touches Week 4

RB Attempts and Touches Week 4 report focuses on the RB position. Given the importance of both Rushing Attempts and Receptions in PPR league this metrics should prove useful.

The main data stream includes

  • Weekly Rushing Attempts and Receptions
  • Average of Rushing Attempts per Minute of Team Possession.
  • Average of Touches Per Minute of Team Possession. (Rushing plus Receptions)

I also use a DIFF metric to pull out the Receptions and the Rushing Attempts improvements in week 4. These 3 data points highlight each Team and Player balance of run vs pass as well as a level of weekly success.

As the season goes forward the database build and more solid team and player patterns can emerge.

Previous Week 5 Articles

snaps-per-minute-week-4-2018

targets-per-minute-week-4

ppr-ranks-risk-rewards-week-5

non-ppr-ranks-risk-rewards week 5


Team Level RB ATTs

The table below displays the week 1/2/3/4 based data on rushing attempts. Looking for biases in team rushing vs receptions in their RBs!

Teams were sorted by the highest to lowest of their 4 week average Rushing Attempts.

The table includes:

  • each Week’s (1 to 4) Average Rushing Attempts (color coded Blue to Red),
  • the grand 4-week average of team rushing attempts,
  • the team name with the 4-week average presented again and
  • then the last 2 games played differences in Atts stats (DIFF Green to Red)) .
  • Team names were colorized for a broad grouping of rushing levels.

Rushing Attempts Highs and Lows

The highest rushing teams are in bright green. TEN, LAR, CLE, CIN, WAS, BAL, PHI, HOU, and NYJ. Note the DIFFs in TEN Week 4 a -7 drop? Concerns here. LAR also dropped by -3.6, NYJ dropped by -6 and BAL by -4.6. Many of the top teams had week 4 declines.

The bottom teams in red color are BUF, MIA, MIN, PIT, NO, and KC.

Comments.

  • BUF has had only 1 good game in week 3. 3 to 1 Poor vs Good! Deep Concerns.
  • PIT needs Bell. Connor was a week 1 flash!?
  • Drake letting Gore take over? Not good in the last 2 weeks. It’s like seeing 2 different teams. Week1/2 MIA vs Week 3/4 MIA? Does week 5 break the tie? Caution.

Slide1


Bar Graph of the 4 Week Average of Rushing Atts.

A reference for a quick study before last DFS lineup checks or season long teams.

Slide2


4 WEEK Rushing Attempts vs DIFF Metric by Team

The top 3 teams all had poor DIFFs. Note the next wave and the 3 teams showing positive DIFFs. Some Bottom teams with improvements last week.

Slide3


Team Level RB Rushing Attempts Per Minute

The data can be teased out to focus on rushing speed which teams are running rushing play the fastest. This can point to very nice RBs with high-speed of opportunities!

The Top Teams are TEN, CIN, CLE, LAR, WAS, BAL, NYJ, HOU and PHI. Thus watching to see how these team backfields are going with have a higher impact over the season.

Lots of questions. Henry vs Lewis (TEN), Mixon vs Geo (CIN), Hyde, Duke and Chubb (CLE), WAS (Peterson vs Thompson), BAL (Collins vs Allen), NYJ (Powell vs Crow), PHI (Ajayi vs all). HOU is seeing Blue coming on vs Miller and Foreman in the wings (Foreman stash now). LAR Gurley show.

Critical Teams to trade and acquire for big points! Monitor all these teams!

Slide5


4 Week Average of Rushing Attempts Per Minute

Please see the obvious team tiers. I will track this metric going forward. For example, NO should see an increase as Ingram is back. Will Bell come back to PIT if so they would move forward. MIN needs Cook back!

I would shy away for the bottom teams in RBs and emphasize the RBs in the top teams on average with no other data to use. It’s a good tiebreaker.

Slide6


Player Averages Atts per Minute, Touches Per Minutes, Ratio Touches Per Atts, and Scaled Player Usages.

Understanding each player usages in rushing vs pass catching is critical especially in PPR scoring leagues. Std scoring leagues would tend to feature rushing RBs while PPR scoring leagues like pass-catching RBs! These data capture those metrics. I have highlighted the Pass biased players (Purple Pass).

I also use a ratio metric of Touches (ATTs plus Receptions) vs Attempts. This ratio is scored should that players significantly above 1.3 are pass based RBs vs below are more rushers. Note Riddick and Richard are the 2 extreme RBs who strictly catch passes. Ratios of 4.8 and 3.15!

FYI note for research purpose that many of the top RBs are rushers or balanced!

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Player Avg Touches Per Minute and RB Rankings Based on that Metric

In order to catch a broad view of RBs, I turn to Average Touches Per Minute to “see” all RB activity and its speed. RBs that are active and fast will have more opportunity to collect us Fantasy Points.

Below is a complete series of RBs sorted by their Touches Per Minute and their current Ranking. Elliot is number one! Gurley and Mixon are 2 and 3. Note Mixon is quietly being fantastic and is a trade target. Note the data is a 4-week average. Also, there are some highly ranked RB preseasonally that are buried in the rankings. Trade away but probably not going to get a lot. Wait till an extreme game and sell high!

RB Attempts and Touches Week 4 Slide13RB Attempts and Touches Week 4 Slide14

RB Attempts and Touches Week 4 Slide15

RB Attempts and Touches Week 4 Slide16


Team-Based Player Touches Per Minute Weeks 1 to 4 with Average and Rankings

Each team and their RBs are shown below and ranked by their scaled ranking! The weekly Touches per Minute are color-coded high to low (blue to red) and the players are colorized based on their rankings as shown in the tables above.

  • Pecking Order of the RBs
  • RB Per Committee Possibilities
  • New RBs improving vs declining.

RB Attempts and Touches Week 4 Slide18

  • ARI DJ Clear RB
  • ATL RBBC if week 1 is used Note Ito Smith (stash in redraft or acquire in dynasty)
  • BAL RBBC Collins vs Allen
  • BUF McCoy but Ivory closer than thought!

RB Attempts and Touches Week 4 Slide19

  • CAR CMC is the Lead
  • CHI Howard and Cohen 7/4 ratio
  • CIN Mixon vs Bernard 10/5 ratio
  • CLE Hyde clear lead RB.

RB Attempts and Touches Week 4 Slide20

  • DAL Elliot the lead
  • DEN True 2RBBC Lindsay vs Freeman
  • DET 3RBBC Johnson starting to pull away
  • GB 3RBBC Jones >Williams>Monty

RB Attempts and Touches Week 4 Slide21

  • HOU Miller in the lead but Blue in Week 4 was a 37/40 ratio
  • IND Hines coming on in an RBBC
  • JAX Yeldon RRBC with Fournette
  • KC Hunt Clear RB

RB Attempts and Touches Week 4 Slide22

  • LAC Gordon 75/42 vs Ekeler. Closer than thought
  • LAR Gurley Lead
  • MIA True 2RBBC Drake Gore. 4th Week Gore was 56/17. Watch this trend!
  • MIN (not MIA typo in the figure) Cook vs Murray 60/28 closer than thought but Cook 3/1 on week 4.

RB Attempts and Touches Week 4 Slide23

  • NE Michel vs White RBBC with Michel 77/46. Coming on to be the lead!
  • NO Kamara the Lead watch for Ingram (2 weeks of data need for a trend).
  • NYG Barkley the lead. Gallman the handcuff? I have been acquiring him quietly just in case.
  • NYJ True 2RBBC Powell vs Crow but week 4 was 54/22 ratio! Watch this battle! Trade Crow?

RB Attempts and Touches Week 4 Slide24

  • OAK Lynch the clear lead but the 2nd RB is a battle.
  • PHI Ajayi vs Clement but hard to gauge with then each being out 1 game of the 4! This could be a later season mess for holders of Sproles and Smallwood etc.
  • PIT Connor the lead note the week 1 insane 1.27 data. That is why he flashed. My metric catches it.
  • SEA Carson dominates when playing but too much variation in SEA Davis vs Penny. I am confused!

RB Attempts and Touches Week 4 Slide25

  • SF 2RBBC Breida vs Morris 50/50 but 44/18 Breida vs Morris Week 4
  • TB Barber and Jones a 2RBBC with Barber leading but a loss in week 4 26 to 31. Barber has dropped from week 2 in half! Caution. Jones should be a trade target before he dominates. Your window is open!
  • TEN True 2RBBC Lewis vs Henry They have split the weeks. not sure this is settled this year!
  • WAS Peterson a slight lead at 78/45 vs Thompson. Thompson flex-play only type.

 

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