PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5

by John Bush

PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5

PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5  rankings are not simply numbers on a page or column. This report includes my metric based risk assessment as well as player ranking.

I have also included stand-alone figures that expand the concepts of Risk as I use in fantasy football.  Team landscapes of risk numbers and risk analysis of the players within the teams is also presented.

See my previous Articles for Week 5

snaps-per-minute-week-4-2018

targets-per-minute-week-4

__________________________________________________________________

Let’s begin with Risk. I use that term as a measure of possibilities (ceiling to floor). Each ranking in this world is a number usually an average. In 100 games played under these same conditions, a player will average at their rank (50 percentile).

What about the rare games where they scored much higher or lower? Thus a range of possibilities can exist. You use this concept to understand my rankings; I wanted to declare my view of the player’s range of possible outcomes with my rankings.

  • High Risk means a large set of possibilities or the distance from player ceiling to floor,
  • Mid Risk means a narrower set of outcomes and
  • Low Risk implies a very tight range of outcomes. See below for a visual description.

Fantasy Football Risk Metric and Analysis.

Slide23

________________________________________

Team Risk Landscape

As you stroll into my rankings, later on, I predicted that the team’s risk levels can be used to modify your rankings-based lineups or bargain hunting in DFS situations.

I simply present for each team a count of their ranked players who are in the Week and generate the counts of High, Mid or Low-risk players.

FYI to finish my week’s picture

  • Game Scripts, Defenses, Risk, Rankings.
  • I use all the data predictions to move to a holistic opinion!
  • Blindly following numbers is not the best way!

Week 5 Team Risk Landscape Table and Graph

The Table/Graph shows each team’s Player Counts for Risk Categories of High and Low. I present a Landscape View of the Tabular Data and finally a focused view of the Teams with High to Low Counts of Risky players.

Slide1

We see that for the week CIN, SEA, DAL, TEN, WAS, PHI, DEN, and JAC have the highest level of HIGH risky players ranked. This metric can at least get data to fantasy players to pause and think about why the high risk?

  • New Players?
  • Unproven Players?
  • Poor Matchup? 

The low-risk teams in week 4 are LAR, OAK, DET, BAL, PIT, CAR, KC, MIN, NYJ, and NY Again players should consider the reasons for being a low-risk team this week.

Slide2

I think my rankings are closer to reality in lower risk teams than in the higher risk teams. Good for DFS, Lineups and drop and adds this week. 

Please use the rankings as a best case and modify your DFS and Lineups based on the other factors of game scripts, DAPs, and Risk. Good Luck!


Defense and Special Teams

PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5 Slide4


Kickers

PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5 Slide5


Quarterbacks

PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5 Slide6


Points Per Reception (PPR) RBs

PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5 Slide8

PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5 Slide9

PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5 Slide10

PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5 Slide11


PPR TEs

PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5 Slide13

PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5 Slide14


PPR WRs

PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5 Slide16

PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5 Slide17

PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5 Slide18

PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5 Slide19

PPR Ranks Risk Rewards Week 5 Slide20


TEAM View PPR Positions and Players Rankings and Assessments of Risk

These figures of teams present a Rankings and Risk landscape. Use to focus down at a matchup level. Fringe players may be used in great matchups vs avoided in poorer situations. The how to read these risk rankings should cover the basics for their usages. Focus for fun and profit! 


Week 5 Ranking FIgures


I like to see teams with numerous high ranked players at lower risk in DFS. Skim and see those teams. The opposite teams’ with a lot of low high-risk players are DFS fades. 

IE     ATL good vs BUF not so good! 


Slide36Slide37Slide38Slide39Slide40Slide41Slide42Slide43Slide44Slide45Slide46Slide47Slide48Slide49Slide50Slide51Slide52Slide53Slide54Slide55Slide56Slide57Slide58Slide59Slide60Slide61Slide62Slide63Slide64Slide65

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: