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Monday Night Risk-Reward

By John Bush

Monday Night Risk-Reward

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I wished to give my take on the Monday Night Risk-Reward Games


See my Weekly Rankings Articles:

Non-PPR-ranks-risk-rewards-week-1

PPR-ranks-risk-and-rewards-week-1


The analysis will include:

  • Game Script
  • Defense against the Position (DAP) Data
  • Non-PPR and PPR Rankings (100 to 0) Green to Red
  • My Risk Assessments for each Player (High, Mid, and Low Risk)

I have constructed these data charts below to maximize your visual view of the entire game landscape. Use thoughtfully. My philosophy is less is more? I will hit the highlights but will not give you the same old tired pundit driven opinions.

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Game Script and DAPs

How to Read Game Scripts and Defense Against the Position (DAP) Figures.

Monday Night Risk-Reward slide110.jpg

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Monday Night Risk-Reward Slide2

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Short Discussion of Risk

Use the Risk Discussion for a deeper understanding of player risk levels are shown below. See the Detail Game Risk and Ranking Data for each team and player following the game scripts and DAP data.

Monday Night Risk-Reward Slide23

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DET vs NYJ

Monday Night Risk-Reward DET vs NYJ

DET

DET is favored in the first Monday Night Contest by 6 points. Stafford the QB faces an overall easy NYJ ranked at 44. He will collect 3X scores vs a 14 QB DAP. This should be an easy at home game for him. I gave him a low risk 88. He can crush the NYJs! DFS play in either format. 

The DET WRs also get to collect in the bounty as well vs. a 41 WR DAP. Tate is ranked low risk 89 and Jones a mid risk 87. I have them both scoring but lean-to Tate to collect another score and more catches. In DFS Tate in cash and Jones in tournaments. Golladay can also collect but as the 3rd WR, his risk is high at 59! Expect 6 catches and maybe a score. 

The DET RBs are given an average matchup to start the season vs an NJY 52 RB DAP. If Johnson plays he might surprise. I did not rank him as I was not sure of his status. If he plays he would still be a high risk. Very uncertain to me. The safest RB is Riddick and I gave him a mid risk 33 and Blount a high risk low ranked. I think Riddick can score via passing. This RBBC is uncertain to me. All are on my watch list. DFS Fade

Wilson the TE takes over for Ebron. He faces a 46 TE DAP. He can collect and I rank him at mid risk 29. Watchlist player. DFS fade

Kicker has a tough game but DET DEF is a DFS play! 

Monday Night Risk-Reward DET


NYJ

The Jets also get an easy game but its an away game. They fight against a DET Def ranked at 30. Sam Darnold gets to shine and collect multiple scores if he can vs 22 DET QB DAP. He still is a low risk but low rank 7 due to all the uncertainty. DFS fade

The NYJ RBs get the easiest game of their season vs a DET 3.2 RB DAP. I expect 2X scores from Crowell and Powell passing and rushing. I have them at Mid and High risk 47 and 36 respectively. Both are tournament plays in DFS. They may be underrated by me vs this easy matchup. 

The NYJ WRs were a powerhouse last year especially Anderson at a low risk 76. Enunwa can also be well but is high risk 49 and Pryor is a mid risk 43. All three can collect catches and scores vs an easy 24 WR DAP. DFS tournament play due to new QB! 

The TE is very uncertain and I did not rank one. I will be watching who is targeted vs a 40 TE DAP.

Kicker and DEF are fine. DFS possible plays.

Monday Night Risk-Reward NYJ

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LAR Vs OAK

LAR vs OAK

LAR

The LAR is favored by 4 points and the total game points are expected to be above 48. This can be a points bonanza. LAR contends into an OAK Def ranked an easy 37! Expect Goff to get 3X plus. I still rank him a mid risk 65! Still, questions remain. He does fight into an easy 17 QB DAP. 

Gurley is the show and should collect 2X or more even if impeded by an OAK 62 RB DAP. He is ranked low risk 100. DFS play in any game type. 

Goff’s WRs will amass catches from him vs an easy 36! I have Kupp low risk 78, Woods at low risk 75 and Cooks mid risk 81. The issue is LAR has 3 equal WRs, a true WRBC situation. Hard to figure who dominates the WRs each week. All DFS tournament plays. 3X scores on the table. I give Cooks the highest chance to score but it is not clear to me. Nice WRs but hard to figures. 

The 2 LAR TEs were ranked mid risk vs a 44 TE DAP. Not sure who collects if any.  Everett is at 23 and Higbee at 10. DFS fades. Roll the dice if needed. 

Kicker gets an easy game and DEF is ok. 

Monday Night Risk-Reward LAR


OAK

OAK will be obstructed all night by the tough LAR defense ranked at 57. Carr does have a tough QB DAP of 72 and they will hinder his production. 2X scores expected. He is a low ranked mid risk QB this week. DFS fade. 

Lynch the RB gets to try his luck at an easy RB DAP of 14. He collects 2X and has a nice game to keep OAK in the game and is the reason for the High total points prediction. I still have to rank him at 45 high risks as the new coaching etc add to the uncertainty. I may have under ranked him though. DFS tournament play. 

The OAK WR face a 57 WR DAP. Cooper is a low risk 83 and should collect 1 to 2X scores. Nelson can also score but is 70 mid risk. They are a prisoner of Goff’s tough 72 DAP situation. That can limit the WRs. DFS tournament plays. 

Cook the TE was the “Check-Down Charlie” for Goff and he may collect a score due to the LAR pressure on Goff! I think he is a solid 55 mid risk. Could surprise in here. Good DFS tournament play. 

OAK kicker and Def tough night! 

OAK

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