By John Bush
PPR Rankings Part 2
This is part two of my current PPR Rankings Part 2. This material uses the simple position rank comparisons from my rankings vs the public ADP based positional rankings.
See the Previous Article PPR Rankings Part 1. PPR Rankings Part 1
A value can be found looking for players ranked higher than my rankings. Significant differences would be 12 ADP units difference (One round) to 6 ADP units different (1/2 round)
I use a team approach and a positional view. The team approach allows a calculation of the public’s view of the team or position as a whole. It’s a landscape view.
Is the player one of several undervalued on that team? Teams commonly thought to have a poor 2018 season would have a high chance of having multiple players not valued correctly! You can observe across the league.
Is the player undervalued because of the hype from another team player? These are questions to explore in these next figures (32 teams plus current free agents).
TEAM Based Positional Rankings Me vs the Public
I will stroll through these figures and make comments if needed.
Not sure Rosen is the cure as a rookie QB. -10 value but Bradford is a good 3rd QB at +5
Overdraft of Kirk at -40 allows other bargains. Bulter +27, Williams +19 nice 8th WRs. Nelson is a sneaky 7th WR in best balls at a whopping +41. Larry is a nice +17 Top 2 WR. Getting a full round bonus.
Ridley is way overvalued at -27 and that allows Sanu to be a bargain at +29 (almost 2 rounds higher). Current taking him as 6th WR or 7th WR with 5 round ceiling.
Flaco is a +5 in value and a solid 3rd QB in Best Ball. Certainly a streamer candidate with the addition of Crabtree.
Crabtree is +15 with a low 2nd WR ceiling going at the deep 3rd round. He is a great 3/4 WRs in Best Balls.
Snead is a +23 7th WR and Brown is a stronger bargain at +35. Public ADP is Snead over Brown, I flip that and take Brown last in Best Balls.
Ivory is a value at +8 and even Mccoy is a slight value at+4. I take Ivory as a 7th RB in Best Ball all day long.
Clay great 2nd TE for streaming or Best Ball. +10. He has high 2nd TE value at high 3rd Price!
Benjamin is a solid value at +9 and a good pick in the 5th or later for a 4th WR upside. Best Ball possibility.
CAP is at 16 and is a deep cuff to the RBBC At Carolina +16 8th round price for a 7th Level RB.
Smith is a nice late 8th level WR for a 10th RB price. Only in deep best balls. +24
DJ Moore has concerns at -30 almost 3 rounds too high in value. Rookie WR in a lower passing Team. This is certainly in flux waiting for OTA/Preseason to see more Moore!
Concerns on CHI DST at -5
Shaheen nice cuff and 3rd TE at +7
Miller is overvalued at -22 opening the door for White at +23 and Gabriel at +21. These two are nice 9th WRs with almost upper 7th WR ceiling. Best Ball deep shots.
Dalton solid 3rd QB with +6 upside.
Eifert’s risk is giving a dividend of +5
Ross is a high risk at -25. The public sees him at 6th level WR? I see at 8/9 level. Changes in OTA/Preseason maybe?
Mayfield is -16 concern. You are betting sooner than later for Taylor takeover! Taylor is a +6 because of this issue.
Duke is the bargain at +6 because Hyde has a Chubb problem at -6. Taking Duke as my 3rd RB all day long. Hyde is a solid 4th RB level. Chubb is at -22 a negative 2 rounds a 2nd RB that is 4th RB material.
Coleman is +8 Nice late 5th round WR!
Bailey is a good pick at +9
Prescott is about right at-3.
Rod Smith value deep cuff at +26 and 7th RB at 9th RB price
Hurns at +6 nice 5th WR at 1/2 round above value. Beasley is a +24 value at 7th RB for 9th RB price. Gallup is -27 and has concerns. Wait to the 7th round. Williams is a steal in late Best Balls at +50 (4 round bargain).
Henderson a value at +10 in late Best Balls. Freeman is -6 value and wait till a mid 3rd at least to break even.
Sanders is a strong +28 3/4 WR for 5th round price. Thomas is a +7 value in the 2nd round. Sutton has opened their value as he is a concerning -54 in value. Note enough to determine his Sept value.
Kerryon Johnson -16 Rookie Should have the control but concerns remain. I see the best ball price at late 3rd. Opens the value door for Blount and Riddick at +22 and +15 (4th RB and late 3rd RB).
Tate at +5 nice pickup vs Jones.
Crosby a bit high at -5.
Jones high at -6. Wait for 1/2 round later in Best Ball leagues. Late 3rd RB. That makes Williams a value at+5 at late 3rd RB at 4th RB price.
Allison +1 and Cobb +8 values in Best Ball. Cobb is a late 3rd WR for an early 4th WR price and Allison at 7th WR for an 8th round price.
Miller is a +8 because Foreman is -7. The public thinks Foreman take over and we get an equal RBBC. I see Miller at a late 2nd RB and Foreman is a late 3rd round RB. ‘
Anderson at +5 Late 4th TE streamer type.
Fuller is overvalued at -9. Wait into late 4th!
Wilkins and Hines are overvalued at -23 and -24 2 rounds too higher. We have little evidence to work with. Concerns.
Doyle at +6 is a value because of Ebron. Possible 1st TE ceiling. Easy to get him as your 2nd TE in Best Ball.
Rogers is forgotten as is Grant both at a nice value of +27 and +35. 7th RBs for 9/10 round prices in Best Balls.
Yeldon is at -13. Taking him at 7th RB in Best Ball
Lee and Moncrief Values at +15 and +8. Lee can be a 4th WR and Moncrief can be a 6th WR best cases. Cole overvalued at -8. Wait till 8th WR. We did not rank Chark fyi.
Chiefs can surprise +6
Mahomes at -8 wait on him as a 2nd QB not 1st!
Conely is a 3rd steal late +35. Solid 8 WR.for 11th WR price. Best Ball
Watkins overvalued -9 Wait till the end of 3rd or later.
Rivers is a first QB level at +10 value and get him at a mid 2nd price!
Green is a deep TE 3 value of +14 until we see if Gates is back.
Williams nice late Best Ball WR at +9 late 6/ early 7 WRs at a late 7th price
Goff at -6 wait as your 2nd QB!
Keely a -25 wait for him as a cuff till the 7th round
Everett a -10 wait till the 3rd TE level. Higbee is closer at +4 than the public thinks.
Cooks and Kupp overvalued at -9 and -8 and wait till early 3rd and early 4th for each.
Woods a bargain at +7. Collect an early 3rd WR as a late 3rd WR!
Gore is a steal at +29. He is a mid 5th RB for 7th round price. Gore is going to vulture on goal-line plays!
Gresicki is a wait on TE 2/3 type at -7.
3 solid WRs with value. Wilson +17, Amendola at +18 and Stills at +13. Stills is a late 4th/5th WR and the other two are an early 7th best ball types
Thielen is a +6 value at late 1st WR for a mid 2nd WR price. Wright is a +38 super late WR steal. Early 8th WR for a 10 round plus price. Best Ball last round type only.
Brady is a +6 value. The possible 3rd QB for 9th QB price.
White +10, Hill +7, and Burhead at +7 all some value. Best ball plays.
Michel is -6. Wait on him till the early 3rd at least to get value.
Hogan is a valued hero at +20. Take him near the 5th round level. Matthews a +8 best ball value at 8th round WR.
Brees can be the 7th QBs at +7 all for a 2nd QB price, value.
Ingram is a +6. I try to wait to grab as a 3rd. Greedy Value!
Watson is an excellent +21 Steal. He is my favorite 2nd TE in Best Ball. I have him in 14 of 25 best ball drafts as my 2nd TE! Early value dreams here!
Ginn is a forgotten last steal at +28. Late 7th WR type bargain.
Smith is a -36 non-play now!
Meredith slight +5 value.
Manning a nice +5 3rd QB in best ball. Streamer type.
Gallman and Stewart value at +25 and +28 because Barkley is envisioned as the Bell Cow RB. Both good gambles if Barkley has durability issues etc. Take them as 8th round RBs with 6th RB prices as the ceiling.
McCown the QB whose good last season is a memory. +10 value 3rd QB for 4th QB price in best ball. Darold at -8. That leading to the McGown value. How long does McCown run as 1st QB? These value change with OTAs and preseason for sure.
Powell is +19 value at late 4th RB for 5th Rb price.
McGuire also a value at +8 last best ball type as a 7th RB.
Kearse is a value at +33 and Pryor is at +26. Each has 2 rounds of value going in the 8 and 9th WR levels. Anderson is also a higher ranked value of +10. Taking him in the 5/6th WR levels.
All RBs in OAK are undervalued. The confusion of this RBBC is the issue. Martin at +9, Lynch at+10, Richard at +23 and Washington at +27. I see Lynch a solid late 3rd RB to get a 4th RB price. Martin is an early 5th RB at a 6th RB price. The other two are 6/7th Types for 8th RB price or better.
Cook is valued at a 2nd TE at +13. Best Ball play here.
Nelson is a risky +13 late third WR but I would wait for a greedy early 5th/late 4th price.
Cooper is -6 and should not be taken in the first late. Wait into the late 2nd for value.
Clement is a -9 and I have taken him as a 5/6th RB in best ball leagues. Sproles is a great 7th RB in best balls at +27. I have taken him as I can. Ajayi is a +8 but concerns are present. Wait till a mid 3rd round price.
Goedert is a cuff but better TE cuffs exist. -12!
Wallace is my favorite 7th WR in the best ball now! +29 vs at 9th WR price! Agholor a little pricey at -5.
Ben is a great 1st QB going for +6 price. Buy all day!
Conner is a cuff but -5 in value. Wait on him.
Washington is a -36 (3 round overvalued). Concerns if he can deliver the needed points.
Juju is also overvalued at -9. Wait for the end of the 2nd early 3rd. Best if he is your 3rd WR.
CJ Prosise could surprise at a +8 value RB. Take him at 7th round.
Carson priced at -5.
The TE By Committee is confusing so neither is being over-drafted. Vannett at +13 and Dickson at +20. If you are good at reading the tea leaves a bargain is here for your 2nd TE! Expect rapid shifts if OTAs etc tip to one of the other. Watchlist TEs!
Lockett is the value play at +11. A solid 5th WR for 6th WR price. Baldwin is also under-valued at 1/2 a round. Take that value at pick 18 or more!
McKinnon is a 1st RB for 2nd RB price +4.
Breida is a cuff but -9. Wait on him till 5th RB Level.
Garcon is a bargain at +27. He is a clear 3rd level WR at his best for a 5th WR price.
Pettis is -40 avoid.
Sims is a +38 bargain. A forgot pass catcher with best ball value. 6th level RB at a 9th level price. I take him as a 7th RB in a best ball if needed.
The TE by Committee has created Brate at +8 and Howard at -7. I see them both as TE 2nds. Concerns here.
Jackson a forgot +30 value. 4/5th turn WR at 7th WR price.
Godwin is over-valued as -17 because Jackson is under-drafted. Wait for Godwin in best balls at 6 level WR for greed.
Lewis remains a value at +6. A 2/3rd RB turn type for late 3th RB price. Your 3rd RB target.
Walker is also under-drafted. Now at +5. He is a mid 1st for the end of 1st price.
Davis is over-played here at -12. Wait on him to be your late 3rd WR. Matthews is a +23 and Taylor at +14. Both value WRs. Matthews a potential 4/5 turn WR going for late 6th WR price. Taylor a deep 8th WR.
Smith at +4 2nd QB.
Thompson at +11 RB. Best Ball 4th RB for greed! Love Guice but -12 value. I am taking him 2nd in best ball. This too high but the WRs around that time are not appealing. Taking him as a “settle for” pick. Not so good!
Perine is a late RB type +6. 7th RB for me in best balls.
Richardson is +12 and you can take him at late 6th/7th turn levels for WRs.
Summary of Diff Metrics Position Landscape.
I use this to catch what I missed in the Team view! Multiple ways to view data is better for taming our biases.
Quick comments only if I see something. FYI I do this data first them look. I do not select the players then look. That is the FIRE before the Wood metaphor! Do not do it! Homework first then drafting.
KC DST jumps out if you wait long on DST. Research SOS and BYEs for other lower ranked DST to stream with. TEN DST might fit with KC for streaming!
Like Bailey +9 or Prater at+3.
Brady Brees Big Ben and Rivers all at 1st QBs for me. “Shop to you drop” for these under-valued players.
Nice 3rd QBs here.
MIA has nice 1st 5 Games vs Easier DST. Tannehill might last enough for an early streamer QB! BUF has a nice playoff Schedule and that could play into streaming as well.
Thompson at +11. Lewis at +6. Miller at +8, Ingram at +6, Ajayi at +8. Collins at +7. Nice targets for 2/3 RBs
Lynch +10. Duke at +6. Riddick at +25, White at +10, Powell +19. Blount +22. Martin +9. Nice 6/7 RBs
Gore +29. Ekeler +10, Barber +12, Sproles +27, Gallman +25, Stewart +28, Sims at +38, Rod Smith at +26 and Washington at +27
Walker + 5. Reed and Doyle +6. Eifert +5. Brate and Clay +8 and 10. Cook at +13.
Green +14. Winner of the SEA TE Thunderdome Dickson +20 and Vannett at +13. Two go in but only 1 comes out?
Fitzgerald super bargain +17. Thielen, D. Thomas, and Baldwin slight values at +6, 7, and 7.
Crabtree +15. Garcon +27. Sanders +28. Nelson a +13. Hogan +20. Anderson at +10. Cobb at +8. Lee at +15 and Benjamin at +9. Love the super greed values (SGV) of +15 in here.
All sorts of deeper WRs play. Like the +20s for my SGV plays.
Need SGV of +25 or higher in my last 30 WRs (70 to 101 WRs)