By John Bush
PPR Ranks Risk Skew Week 7
PPR Ranks Risk and Skew Week 7 present my rankings, which are not simply numbers on a page or column. I included my metric based risk assessments at the player and team levels as well a new metric based range skew analysis that I have developed this summer.
I have also included two stand-alone figures that expand the concepts of Risk as I use in fantasy football and the idea of a Ranking Range Skew number. I present the Team landscapes of risk numbers and risk analysis of the positions within the teams.
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Let’s begin with Risk. I use that term as a measure of possibilities. Each ranking in this world is a number usually an average. In 100 games played under these same conditions, a player will average at their rank (50 percentile). What about the rare games where they scored much higher or lower? Thus a range of possibilities can exist. You use to understand my rankings; I wanted to declare my view of the player range of possible outcomes.
High Risk means a large set of possibilities, Mid Risk means a narrower set of outcomes and Low Risk implies a very tight range of outcomes. See Figure 1 for a visual description.
Figure 1. Fantasy Football Risk Metric and Analysis.
Figure 2. Outcome Range Skew
I have divided the positions into groups and present my PPR based rankings with risk and Range Skew from high to low rankings (Green to Red).
Week 7 Team Risk Landscape
As you stroll into my rankings, later on, I predicted that the team’s risk levels can be used to modify your rankings based lineups or bargain hunting in DFS situations. In Figure 3, I simply present for each team a count of their ranked players who are in the week 6, High, Mid or Low-risk players.
This week DAL, GB, PIT, and BAL have the largest numbers of high-risk players.
CAR. ARI and SEA are teams with the highest % of low-risk players!
Good Tie breaker data in DFS or Lineups!
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FYI to finish my week’s picture
- I consider game scripts, DAPS, Risk, Range Skew and rankings.
- I use all the data predictions to move to a holistic opinion!
- Blindly following numbers is not the best way!
Figure 3 to 4. Week 7 Team Risk Landscape
Figure 3 shows each team’s Player Counts for Risk Categories. I present an Area View of the Tabular Data for a focused view of the Teams with High to Low Counts of Risky players. (Figure 4)
PPR Ranks, Risk, Skew Week 7
I use the ranking as a best case and modify my DFS and Lineups based on the other factors of game scripts, DAPs, Risk, and Range Skew. Good Luck!
Defense and Special Teams
PPR Running Backs
PPR Tight Ends
PPR Wide Receivers
TEAM and Positional PLAYER PPR Rankings Risk and Skew