Joseph Randle (39 Overall / RB18)
Joseph Randle is the epitome of taking opportunity over talent. The Cowboys have an impressive offensive line that created massive holes for DeMarco Murray to exploit last season, rushing for 845 yards before contact. But that would take away from the talent Murray has and the production he created last year. He had 1,000 yards rushing after contact. His 2.68 yard average after contact was top 5 in the NFL.
Now by writing this, I am not saying that Randle is a bad player or that he can’t produce as a feature back, I am simply saying at his current ADP the value is not there to be had. He is going as a top 20 back and going at the round 3/4 turn.
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In his career, Randle has 105 carries and has averaged 4.8 yards. But to simply look at that is to avoid a bigger picture. 100 carries is not enough of a sample size to assume that he will produce to that level with 200 plus carries this season.
While the fantasy community as a whole is over the Darren McFadden experience, Jerry Jones brought in a fellow Razorback that he remembers running like a mad man at the University of Arkansas. McFadden will get some looks early, until he gets injured again anyway. Ryan Williams and Lance Dunbar may try to snag a few touches of their own. While there is still value to be had from the running back spot in Big D, assuming Randle will shoulder the majority the load seems aggressive.
Breshad Perriman (111 overall / WR43)
I know in theory it makes a ton of sense to assume that Breshad Perriman could step right into the role vacated by Torrey Smith who swapped coasts and joined the San Francisco 49ers. Throughout the draft process, I was not a Perriman fan. I thought his routes were clunky, his timing was off and had questionable at best hands.
I expect Steve Smith to garner a large portion of the targets opposite Perriman. Kelvin Benjamin was strong last year because the Panthers force-fed him the ball. Marlon Brown, Kamar Aiken, Justin Forsett will also get looks in this offense. I also expect the run game to have a big focus in this offense after the way Forsett impressed. The whole situation paints a picture of a situation I’d rather avoid, combined with a talent I’m not buying. If I’m in a best ball league he becomes more interesting in hopes he catches a deep ball and finds the end zone.
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Davante Adams (96 Overall / WR 38)
I love the Packers offense so much for 2015. Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL and makes this offense go. Jordy Nelson is elite and is consistently undervalued and plays opposite Randall Cobb who has the ability to be in the bottom end of the top 10 at wide receiver. I also know Rodgers has shown the ability to feed multiple receivers including James Jones, who played with Cobb and Nelson. During that season Nelson missed 4 games and Cobb missed 10. Sure, if Nelson or Cobb were to miss significant time Adams could produce fantasy numbers, but where you have to take him you need him to be a more consistent option.
Adams looks the part of a NFL wide receiver. He has done some things including producing in the playoffs against the Dallas Cowboys catching 7 of his 11 targets for 117 yards and a touchdown. In the 8 games prior to that game he had only made 14 catches for 183 yards. 6 of the catches and 121 yards of that total came in one game against the Patriots. As Matt Harmon pointed out in his recent article, “He was the least efficient first-year fantasy receiver last year, scoring .08 fantasy points per snap.”
Davante Adams was targeted on 17.6% of the 279 routes he ran over his #ReceptionPerception sample, by far the lowest of the 2014 rookies.
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) July 1, 2015
Who I’m drafting instead: Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Roddy White, Duke Johnson