Here are five fantasy football rookies to wipe off your redraft league board. Someone in your league will overpay for each one of these players, and you shouldn’t be that guy. The potential peaks of their talent might be enticing, but any upside will be almost impossible to tap into in year one.
5) Duke Johnson
The Browns came into the 2015 draft clearly on the market for another running back, and they got an exciting prospect in Duke Johnson. He has great speed while maintaining the ability to run inside. It’s hard to not to push his stock up after remembering how talented the Cleveland offensive line is, especially with the addition of this year’s first round selection (Cam Erving). The backfield looks to be a hot mess and is primed for another season of the aggravating running back carousel. The best case scenerio would be a installation of a power back role and a change of pace role; Johnson would surely lock up the latter with his great athleticism. But even in the best case scenario his fantasy ceiling is greatly capped.
4) Devante Parker
The Dolphins became the likely landing spot for Parker a couple of days before the draft. Some will try to hold onto Parker’s potential upside, but that may not be tapped into this year. Parker needs to develop his game to consistently fight and win against NFL-caliber corners. With Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings and Rishard Mathews on the roster, Parker won’t need to be asked to play a high number of snaps this year. Miami may be in need of a true #1 receiver, but in Bill Lazor’s Chip Kelly-like spread offense, he’ll have plenty of weapons to use.
3) Dorial Green-Beckham
The Titans drafted a wide receiver for their new quarterback. DGB is probably one of the most gifted receivers in this year’s draft, but after he landed in Tennessee with a rookie quarterback and a young, inexperienced receiving corps, his excitingly curious potential turned into a head-scratching riddle. DGB is troubled kid who has never lived up to his potential, and he needs a Cris Carter to his Randy Moss for there to be a chance at a productive rookie year. And let’s just say there is no Cris Carter on the Titans’ roster.
2) Breshad Perriman
The Ravens looked for Torrey Smith to become that complete receiver every season, and always ended up disappointed. The fantasy industry would say that if he grows his route tree with his speed there’s no stopping him. Baltimore let Smith go this year and drafted his replacement in Perriman. This storyline will be preached so much that Perriman will be lofted up into the exciting land of wishful potential without even taking an NFL snap. The truth is that Perriman doesn’t currently have the consistency to even take the role and match the level of production Smith had. Perriman is much like a rookie Smith, boasting a 4.2 40 time but lacking the ability to put that together with his play on the field … not to mention his limited route tree.
1) Jameis Winston
The Buccaneers drafted their franchise quarterback in Winston. He will have some nice targets, and that will make many excited. Winston still struggles with decision making, and having these big basketball player receivers will make him feel comfortable just throwing it up. With his immaturity, inaccuracy and his almost undefeated college career, it will be interesting to see how Winston bounces back week to week from what should be a good number of losses this season. Will it affect his confidence? Will it effect his game where there should be a high number of forced passes? Winston could become a good franchise quarterback, but there will be growing pains this year. That’s not something you want on your fantasy team.