Wow what an event UFC On Fox 14 was last week. With so many first round finishes it was a high scoring event, and you had to have almost everything right to cash. I look for thing to return to a bit more normal this week for UFC 183: Silva vs. Diaz. I think the key this time around will be taking at least one of the underdogs and AT LEAST getting the win with that pick. I’m going to change up the format this week so hit me up on twitter (@Zbullsmoke) and let me know what you think?
Rafael Natal ($10,200) vs. Tom Watson ($9,800): I’m really not a fan of either of these guys for their price, so i will be staying away.
Ian McCall ($10,900) vs. John Lineker ($8,900): McCall is the favorite here, but if he wins, I think it will be via decision. On the other hand, they don’t call John Lineker “Hands Of Stone” for nothing. I think he is a decent play as he has the ability to end fights quickly with his striking, and is a nice value.
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Derek Brunson ($11,700) vs. Ed Herman ($8,000): Brunson is the biggest favorite of the card, and should get an easy win here. His price is so high though, and I don’t see him finishing this fight in the first round, so I will be passing on this one.
Sara McMann ($10,500) vs. Miesha Tate ($9,400): Look for McMann to out wrestle Tate and get a victory by decision. McMann is a fairly safe option for a win, but I doubt this fight finishes early.
Jordan Mein (10,200) vs. Tiago Alves ($9,800): This one is tough for me. I like the potential with Mein, but Alves seems to grind out fights to decision victories. I also like Alves’ price. I’m leaning towards Mein as his ability to end the fight early is greater. I couldn’t fault someone for taking Alves though, especially on this card, at that price.
Thales Leites ($11,800) vs. Tim Boetsch ($8,000): Leites should be able to get the victory, but Boetsch is a warrior and we have seen him knock people out late in fights. If you want a safe option for a win, Leites is a good choice even though he is expensive. If you are looking for a low owned fighter at minimum salary with KO potential, take a shot with Boetsch.
Joe Lauzon ($9,200) vs. Al Iaquinta ($10,800): You could feel fairly confident in either of these guys really. Iaquinta is the favorite and could knock out Lauzon, BUT Lauzon could almost be considered the “Fight Bonus King” as he is always gunning for crazy submissions early and often. You have to like Lauzon here for the price, and is borderline a must play for me.
Tyron Woodley ($9,700) vs. Kelvin Gastelum ($10,300): This fight is about even. Many think Gastelum will take the victory in this one. I like Woodley better for the price as several of his fights have been first round KO/TKO victories.
Anderson Silva ($11,900) vs. Nick Diaz ($8,300): Silva is one of the biggest favorites of the night, and has shown in the past he has the ability to finish people in the first round in a variety of ways. However this is his first fight back since suffering a horrific leg injury. I still think he is worth taking a chance on even at the high price. Diaz is a HUGE underdog here, and hasn’t fought in a long time as well. I do think Diaz presents a good value though. At just $300 above minimum salary, he could push this one at least a few rounds and also has the potential to end it early.
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