Week 11 in my NFL Picks Against the Spread sets up for another strong week. While the first half of the season has not been awesome, the past two weeks things are turning around. After Sunday’s 4-1 performance, I feel like i’m starting to get my feel for the NFL back.
Week 11 features a clash between two AFC heavyweights, a 49ers team that is trending up, and a battle in dessert for NFC to prove if they are contenders or pretenders. This is the time of year where the NFL becomes compelling. Teams are battling for playoff spots or home field with an eye towards hoisting the Lombardi Trophy come seasons end.
>Season Total 19-31
>Upset Alert 3-7
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New England Patriots +3 at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are 6-3 this season, however their wins have come against a week less than impressive group of teams whose combined record is 21-34. The three losses have come against the NFL’s elite teams. These teams have made the Colts defense look less than impressive. The New England Patriots are in the elite group and have played well as of late including winning their last 5 games and covering 4. The Patriots secondary should be able to slow Andrew Luck enough for the Patriots to not only cover this game, but win outright.
San Francisco 49ers -4 at New York Giants
The New York Giants have the potential of getting running back, Rashad Jennings back for this game, however the 49ers rush defense has allowed the 5th fewest yards all season and only two running backs, Mark Ingram and DeMarco Murray have cracked the 100 yard mark against them. Aldon Smith will return this week to improve the defensive side of the ball as well. The 49ers defense will have an impressive game and control the Giants offense. They will cover this game comfortably and will get a win streak together as they head into the playoffs.
Carolina Panthers -1.5 vs Atlanta Falcons
The Carolina Panthers haven’t been great this season and have been a mess on both sides of the ball. That said, the Falcons have been even worse. This game being in Carolina swings things in favor of the Panthers. Matt Ryan is awful outdoors and his numbers bear that out. The Falcons got their first win on the road a week ago against Tampa Bay, who may be one of the few teams that are worse than the Falcons. I expect this game to be ugly but the Panthers get a win and cover at home.
Denver Broncos -9.5 at St. Louis Rams
The Rams are an absolute mess on the offensive side of the ball. They are going back to Shaun Hill for this game who was a train wreck last time he was under center going 8-13 for 81 yards in one half before sitting out the second half with an “injury” in a 34-6 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Denver will keep it rolling on the road and win this game easily.
Detroit Lions +2 at Arizona Cardinals
This game feels like a letdown game from the Arizona Cardinals. Carson Palmer went down for the rest of the season with an ACL injury. Unlike the last time when the Cardinals played without Palmer, knowing they won’t have Palmer coming back will be a challenge. I expect the Lions, who even at 7-2 haven’t been as impressive as their record indicates, to win this game. The Lions defense is a big part of why they have been winning so many games. Despite this game being in University of Phoenix Stadium, where the Cardinals have been great, the Lions will not only cover but win outright.
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