Fantasy Football – Michael Floyd Buy-Low Opportunity

Michael Floyd

Week 10 in the NFL threw up plenty of story lines for us to digest, and gave fantasy football enthusiasts more conundrums to overthink as our playoff season looms ever closer. Michael Floyd‘s quarterback Carson Palmer has been lost for the remainder of the season, and one has to wonder if we will see him on the field again – and even the most staunch rival NFC West  fan (or AFC North, for that matter) has to hope that this isn’t how Palmer’s career ends. Ronnie Hillman‘s injury combined with C.J. Anderson‘s emergence and Montee Ball‘s week 11 return has muddied the fantasy waters of the Broncos backfield, while Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown failed to take advantage of what should have been their juiciest match-up of the season.


However, of all of the talking points thrown up in week 10, none was cause for more consternation and vitriol than the aforementioned Michael Floyd’s recent barren spell.  Here are a couple of examples of how Floyd’s fantasy owners reacted to yesterday’s performance (Floyd’s third consecutive abject showing):







I get it. I own Floyd in multiple leagues. I’ve started him for a lot of the season. He’s burned me personally, and heavily contributed to me losing match-ups in a couple of weeks. But let’s get some perspective on this.


Through the first 6 weeks of the season, Floyd was averaging 10.9 PPR points per game. As a point of comparison, Floyd averaged 11.9 PPR points per game over the course of the 16 game NFL season last year, wherein he cemented his status as a “dynasty darling”. Over the last three games, Floyd has been downright awful, averaging 2.9 PPR points per game, leaving his average points per game at 8.2 for the season – not what owners were anticipating while waiting for the “WR breakout 3rd season”.


As outlined in this superb article by @SeanGTomlinson, Floyd has been on the field for the majority of Arizona’s offensive snaps. Through week 10, he has seen 52 targets (tied for 62nd in the NFL), catching 24 of those targets for a 46% catch rate. However, the bright side is that his average yards per catch is a healthy 16.7, tied 7th in the league for players with at least 20 catches – and more than he earned last season (16 yards per catch).


At the minute it’s fair to say that Floyd is arguably the 5th target in Arizona’s passing game, behind Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Ellington, John Brown and even (welp) John Carlson. However, it’s also arguable that Floyd is the 2nd most talented pass catcher the Cardinals have, and that he’t not too far behind Fitz in terms of raw talent. 6’3″, 220lbs and a 92nd percentile height-adjusted speed score per isn’t exactly easy to come by.


While it’s very difficult to buy in to anecdotal statements, as Tomlinson points out in his article, Floyd has been close to a few huge completions this season. It’s also worth noting that Floyd is FakePigskin’s 14th ranked dynasty WR, and ranked 11th WR with our friends at Dynasty League Football. So, when owners seem to be giving up hope, you may have an opportunity to pounce.


All day in work today, I was wondering how Floyd’s splits compared with Carson Palmer (RIP, big guy) and Drew Stanton. Lo and behold, when I got on to Twitter, DLF’s Eric Harder (@EDH_27), @DraftSharks and the great @evansilva had wondered the same thing:




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Now, it’s easy, and accurate, to say that Stanton (1st graphic) isn’t as good a QB as Palmer (2nd):






But the simple fact is that Floyd can’t perform any worse than he has over the last few weeks. The fact that so many owners are willing to give up on Floyd, a 1st round pick with a track record of success just 1 year and 2 months older than Kelvin Benjamin, is remarkable, and a great opportunity for savvy dynasty owners to take advantage.


In the interest of full disclosure, Stanton to Floyd has been far from an unmitigated success:




But the fact that Stanton is more than willing to look in Floyd’s direction is cause for optimism. Here are some examples of trades for Floyd recently, provided by @DLFootball:




And to be perfectly honest, after week 10’s game, Floyd’s price may be even more affordable. As some other notable dynasty writers have pointed out, there will never be a better time to try to acquire Floyd:


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A few short weeks ago, my friend @NPowellFF and I were discussing that we wouldn’t trade Floyd for the upcoming 1.03 rookie pick. Now, you may be able to get him for a package deal such as Julian Edleman and a mid 2nd round pick.


Dynasty football is all about getting the most talented players you can on your squad, regardless of situation – provided it’s at the right price. Right now, Michael Floyd is giving you a fantastic chance to do just that.







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