Lesson 15: Age Analysis Part 3
Age Analysis Part 3. In this block, I focused on the Positional Landscapes from 2002 to 2020. We must understand the journey that each position has taken over the last nineteen years. Reference Class Forecasting is key. What we can expect in 2021 is based on where we have been.
Below is a table with % of the 19 years Max Fantasy Points by Position. For example, in QB, the best FP Maximum (FPM) was in 2013 and is marked at 100%. Note in 2018 to 2020, QB has been at the 94% level of FPM or higher. We should expect a great year for QB in 2021!
Secondly, in RB the best year was 2006 at 100%, while in 2018 and 2020, we had RBs hit near 80% of that MFP. 2019 was the odd year with it having CMC at 97%. We then, for 2021, have a less than clear prediction of RB MFP. As I scan from 2020 RB back, I see most years at 80% of MFP. I would not expect a 2019 year again! Do not have over-exuberance in 2021 for RB!
Next, in the TE position, we have the opposite situation for MFP! The top TE FP was in 2011, and in 2018 and 2020, we had a nice 90 and 95% MFP vs. 77% in 2019. That suggests we could see a solid +90% 2021 TE year and does support early TE drafting?
Finally, in the WR position, we had a 97 and 94 MFP in the last 2 years. I would predict a solid WR year in 2021 as well. Draft, an early Top WR, is definitely supported by this trend.
Next are key links to other Lessons.