Weekly Values Before Week 10

Weekly Values Before Week 10, Fantasy Football is a weekly game that needs weekly statistical tools. Best Ten Values attempt to show a player’s Big Game and Consistency in an easy-to-compare statistical tool. Data is prepared using standard PPR scoring rules but use 6 points for all TDs by QBs to level out the effect of rushing TDs by QBs since those can vary from one week to the next.

While this tool will give you a good comparison from player to player in most formats, you need to apply your own league scoring rules to decide between two players when they are close. Let’s take a look at the weekly values at each position heading into week 10.

QB Weekly Values

There was very little change to the QB rankings after week 9, with the top 10 staying the same. Josh Allen continues to hold the top spot with Tom Brady second and Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes tied for 3rd. The worst three fantasy games in the fantastic career of Patrick Mahomes have come in the last three games! Let’s take a look at the numbers.

Player	Best 10	Consistency	Last Week	Team
J Allen	42.3	54	1	Buf
Brady	42	55	2	TB
Mahomes	41.4	73	3	KC
L Jackson	41.4	66	4	Bal
Wilson	40.7	54	5	Sea
Prescott	39.2	64	6	Dal
Murray	39.1	58	7	AZ
Herbert	38.8	61	8	LAC
Rodgers	37.2	65	9	GB
Stafford	35.9	50	10	LAR
Ryan	35.6	44	12	Atl
Cousins	34.7	55	11	Min
Tannehill	34	50	13	Ten
Winston	33	41	14	NO
Fitzpatrick	32	58	16	WAS
Hurts	31.4	46	15	Phl
Goff	31.2	31	18	Det
D Jones	31	23	19	NYG
Carr	30.8	48	20	LV
Wentz	30.2	41	22	Ind
Heinecke	30	50	21	WAS
Jimmy G	30	31	24	SF
Burrow	29.9	58	17	Cin
Tua	29.4	31	23	Mia
Mayfield	28.9	23	26	Cle
Bridgewater	27.9	39	25	Den
Lawrence	27.6	29	27	Jax
Darnold	27.3	27	28	Car
Big Ben	26.9	33	29	Pitt
Taylor	26	31	31	Hou
M Jones	26	11	30	NE
Z Wilson	25	0	32	NYJ
Fields	23	13	NA	Chi

RB Weekly Values

This week, Derrick Henry remains on the top spot despite his injury, with Christian McCaffrey in 2nd place. The diminished snap counts expected for CMC would drop his rating, but there is some level of uncertainty of how much his usage will increase over the next few weeks. Last week his usage was about 2/3rds of his pre-injury level. Assuming he will increase slightly to 70% this week, his adjusted weekly value would be 23.3 for the RB14 level.

Alvin Kamara is also out this week, meaning the top three in weekly values will all be “Missing in Action” or significantly reduced in their value for this week. The beauty of the weekly value tool is that it will continue to adjust CMC downward IF the trend of lower usage continues the rest of the season. Aaron Jones usage has also decreased recently, but a definite trend has not been established yet. That leaves Austin Ekeler and Jonathan Taylor as the best values at RB for week 10. Let’s take a look at the raw values at RB heading into this week’s action.

Player	Best 10	Consistency	Last Week	Team
Henry	34.3	80	1	Ten
CMC	33.3	91	2	Car
Kamara	31.2	89	3	NO
A Jones	30.7	77	4	GB
Ekeler	27	88	6	LAC
Taylor	26.6	78	10	Ind
Cook	26.5	91	5	Min
Chubb	25.2	79	11	Cle
Barkley	25	67	7	NYG
Elliott	24.5	82	8	Dal
Swift	24.4	80	9	Det
Harris	23.8	88	12	Pit
Mixon	23.7	71	16	Cin
J Robinson	23.6	90	13	Jax
Montgomery	23.1	62	14	Chi
Patterson	22.4	62	17	Atl
Fornette	22	77	15	TB
Drake	21.5	61	19	LV
Jacobs	21.4	79	18	LV
Conner	21.1	76	24	Az
M Gordon	21.1	67	20	Den
Carson	20.6	83	21	Sea
K Hunt	20.2	67	22	Cle
D Henderson	19.9	52	23	LAR
Sanders	19.4	59	25	Phl
Mattison	19.3	64	26	Min
Gibson	18.9	65	27	Was
Gaskin	18.6	75	30	Mia
J Williams	18.5	44	28	Den
Booker	18.3	70	32	NYG
AJ Dillon	18.3	67	39	GB
M Carter	18	71	31	NYJ
McKissic	18	50	33	Was
Perine	17.8	80	34	Cin
CEH	17.7	72	35	KC
Herbert	17.7	50	36	Chi
J Williams	17.6	50	37	Det
D Williams	17.4	58	38	Chi
D Williams	17.2	47	41	KC
M Davis	17.1	58	42	Atl
E Mitchell	17	67	43	SF
D Harris	17	61	44	NE
Hines	16.5	52	48	Ind
Edmunds	16.4	63	45	Az
Pollard	16.4	41	40	Dal
Scott	16	35.3	NA	Phl
L Murray	15.9	43	47	Bal
Singletary	15.5	50	49	Buf
Gainwell	15.3	75	50	Phl
T Johnson	15.2	32	53	NYJ
Michel	15.1	60	51	LAR
Hubbard	15	67	29	Car
Peterson	15	62	NA	Ten
Howard	15	46	NA	Phl
Moss	14.8	63	52	Buf
D Johnson	14	73	46	Hou
R Jones	13.6	67	54	TB
Collins	13.3	40	55	Sea
T Williams	11.3	67	56	Bal
McNichols	11.3	22	NA	Ten

WR Weekly Values

The Top 15 in weekly values at WR have remained the same heading into week 10. Since my weekly value tool favors more data points, rookie players are always a bit undervalued even after applying factors to compensate for fewer games. That makes the 8th place ranking for Ja’Marr Chase even more impressive! Several teams with more than one WR in the Top 25 show that the “Grab Both in Top Passing Offenses” is a Fantasy strategy that has some validity in statistics.

Cooper Kupp at 2nd with Robert Woods at 18th is an intriguing pair: Mike Evans at 6th, Chris Godwin at 8th, and Antonio Brown at 14th. Likewise, the Chargers combo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at 16th and 17th and the Seahawks combo of Tyler Lockett at 5th and DK Metcalf at 21st are intriguing duos.

Williams and Lockett have considerable week ability, but their low consistency rankings show how hit or miss they can be. With his other two high-rated players hurt, Mike Evans might be one of the best value plays for week 10. First, let’s take a look at the rankings.

Player	Best 10	Consistency	Last Week	Team
Adams	32.1	88	1	GB
Kupp	31.3	80	2	LAR
Hill	30.3	88	3	KC
Evans	29	72	4	TB
Lockett	27.5	58	5	Sea
Godwin	26.7	77	6	TB
Thielan	26	61	7	Min
J Chase	25.8	89	8	Cin
AJ Brown	25.6	67	9	Ten
Cooper	25.4	72	10	Dal
Hopkins	25.3	82	11	AZ
Diggs	25	80	12	Buf
McLaurin	24.7	68	13	Was
An Brown	24.5	83	14	TB
Samuel	24.2	70	15	SF
K Allen	24.1	84	18	LAC
M Williams	24.1	49	16	LAC
Woods	23.8	68	20	LAR
M Jones	23.8	57	19	Jax
Ridley	23.5	84	21	Atl
Metcalf	23.2	78	22	Sea
Lamb	23.1	70	23	Dal
Jefferson	22.7	74	17	Min
M Brown	22.7	55	25	Bal
DJ Moore	21.7	71	24	Car
B Cooks	21.7	58	41	Hou
J Jones	21.4	74	26	Ten
Sutton	21.4	58	29	Den
D Johnson	21.3	70	28	Pit
Fuller	21.3	62	30	Mia
Boyd	21.1	62	31	Cin
Shephard	20.9	74	33	NYG
Sanders	20.6	61	34	Buf
Crowder	20.6	55	27	NYJ
Beasley	20.5	68	32	Buf
Robinson	20.4	71	35	Chi
D Smith	20.1	56	44	Phl
Waddle	19.7	56	37	Mia
C Davis	19.6	43	38	NYJ
Parker	19.5	77	40	Mia
Golladay	19.4	76	36	NYG
Landry	19.4	66	NA	Cle
Kirk	19.3	58	43	AZ
Pittman	19.3	41	39	Ind
Hilton	18.3	50	45	Ind
E Moore	18.1	60	52	NYJ
Claypool	18	59	42	Pit
R Moore	18	38	47	AZ
Aiyuk	17.9	58	46	SF
Slayton	17.8	47	48	NYG
Agholor	17.7	35	51	NE
Higgins	17.4	76	49	Cin
Jeudy	17.2	56	69	Den
Toney	17.1	33	54	NYG
Peoples-Jones	17	46	53	Cle
Anderson	16.9	51	55	Car
Mooney	16.9	42	71	Chi
Renfrow	16.7	53	56	LV
Raymond	16.7	46	57	Det
Cobb	16.7	46	50	GB
Beckham	16.5	61	58	Lar
Pascal	16.5	33	59	Ind
Gage	16.2	55	61	Atl
Callaway	16	33	63	NO
Green	15.7	58	60	AZ
Jefferson	15.5	33	62	LAR
T Marshall	15.2	0	64	Car
Patrick	14.9	50	68	Den
Meyers	14.9	44	66	NE
Harris	14.3	83	67	NO
Hardman	14	52	65	KC
Swain	14	43	70	Sea
Lazard	13.7	32	72	GB
Shenaut	13.6	55	73	Jax
G Davis	13.4	47	74	Buf
T Smith	13	29	75	NO
Agnew	12.3	75	76	Jax
Edwards	12.3	36	77	LV
Watkins	12.1	39	78	Bal
Higgins	12	39	79	Cle
ASB	11.7	33	80	Det
Robinson	11	27	81	KC
Reagor	11	24	82	Phl

TE Weekly Values

The weekly values show us that there are only two super-elite players Travis Kelce and Darren Waller, at the TE position. Mark Andrews was the best TE value versus his Average Draft Position heading into the 2021 season, and he has moved into 3rd place just a touch below the top two after nine weeks of play. George Kittle looked good on his return to action and held down the 4th position.

Mike Gesicki’s weekly value is 5th best, but his horrible Consistency Rate of 39% shows you can expect some losing weeks if you rely on him as your TE. Pitts, Hockenson, and Fant are close in the 6th through 8th place rankings, but their low Consistency Ratings keep them well below the elite level. Friermuth moved up from 25th to 14th in one week, and a few more good games will quickly move him into the top 8. First, let’s take a look at the data at the TE position.

Player	Best 10	Consistency	Last Week	Team
Kelce	24	88	1	KC
Waller	24	72	2	LV
Andrews	21.2	65	3	Bal
Kittle	20.6	70	4	SF
Gesecki	19.9	39	5	Mia
Pitts	18.7	38	6	Atl
Hockenson	18.4	47	7	Det
Fant	18	32	8	Den
Ertz	17.7	47	9	AZ
Gronk	17.2	50	10	TB
Schultz	17.1	44	11	Dal
Higbee	16.9	32	12	LAR
Goedert	15.9	46	13	PHL
Friermuth	15.7	67	25	Pit
Seals-Jones	15.7	63	14	WAS
J Cook	15.2	68	15	LAC
Uzomah	15	36	16	Cin
Hooper	14.8	46	17	Cle
Henry	14.6	60	18	NE
Thomas	14.4	59	19	WAS
Engram	13.8	48	21	NYG
J Smith	13.8	39	20	NE
Njoku	13.7	28	23	Cle
Knox	13.6	25	22	Buf
Allie-Cox	12.1	21	24	Ind
Everett	11.7	35	27	Sea
Howard	11.7	30	28	TB
Conklin	11.4	20	26	Min
Dissly	10.9	24	29	Sea
Kmet	10.4	16	32	Chi
Doyle	10.2	17	30	Ind

Good Luck in Week 10

Since the weekly values are prepared the same for each position, these rankings are an excellent pick for the Flex starting positions. If you are very weak at QB, you can see when it pays to fade your weak QB for another position at the Super Flex position.

Keep in mind that this data is prepared based on typical usage that a player has established over the last few seasons. Suppose his use is expected to drop because of a new timeshare at the position of injury. In that case, you can apply that difference in use to the weekly values to get an “Applied Value” for any particular week. (IE: If you forecast 70% of the usual use, then multiply the weekly value by 70% to get the “Applied Value”)

Good luck this week, and remember to check out the Science of Fantasy Podcast and John Bush’s matchup data here on FakePigSkin to make the most informed Fantasy Football decisions possible.

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LINKS

https://www.fakepigskin.com/2021/11/11/science-of-fantasy-episode-12/

https://www.fakepigskin.com/2021/11/13/week-10-match-ups/