NFL Week 7 provides a chance to get back after a frustrating 1-2 week for me with Cowboys OT walk off costing me another winning week. Still, I sit at 14-5-1 heading into another week of ATS picks and props. Aaron was able to go 2-1 and help the column go .500 this week.
For Week 7, Aaron finds two underdogs catching too many points for his liking. He also breaks out the first teaser to be featured on this article. As for my picks, I target the 2 largest spreads on the board and roll with a familiar favorite. So who do we like? Aaron is on the tee after a winning week. But first our season long records are as follows.
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Aaron’s Week 7 Picks
Week 6 was just another day at the office keeping the money coming in! Another 2-1 week – the only loss coming at the hands of Pittsburgh not being able to keep Geno Smith at bay. What a turnaround for this organization… it’s time for a new era in Pittsburgh (Aaron Rodgers in 2022?).
The Cowboys covered, but this game did not go as I planned. New England played them tough and almost took home the win… but luckily OT saved us if you smashed Dallas like I did.
Finally, the Packers smashed the Bears by 10 as expected. I mentioned taking alternate lines around -8 and -9, so hopefully you took the risk for some extra dough. Betting against the Bears right now seems like a great way to make money. That’ll change at some point, but maybe not with Tom Brady & the Bucs on deck.
3 team 6 point teaser: Raiders +4.5, Dolphins +8.5 and Giants +9
I like all three of these standard underdog lines, but cannot pass up 2/3 with over a TD spread for the home teams. All 3 of these teams are at home and facing bottom-tier teams.
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The Raiders should beat the Eagles no matter what happens in this game. With the line currently at -2.5, I’m happy to add the +6 just in case they lose by a FG.
The Dolphins have been really bad, and they just lost to the worst team in the league. They aren’t this bad, but they are going through an identity crisis. I think Tua squashes the trade rumors and gets this team rolling at home against a bad Falcons team.
Finally, the G-Men have not looked as bad as their 1-5 record. Sure, they are very banged up right now missing their top RB in Saquon Barkley, as well as their top two wideouts Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney.
This teaser is right around +150 right now. I’d even parlay the 3 with LV +3.5, MIA +7.5, and NYG +8.5 for +167.
Tennessee Titans +5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I’m likely too heavy on home dogs this week, but I don’t love many of the favorites outside of the large spread lines (Bucs -12 and Pats -6 for example). Tennessee has been very disappointing this season… but so has Kansas City. The Titans have had an up and down schedule so far losing to Arizona, beating Seattle and Indy, losing to the lowly Jets, then beating the worst and best team in the NFL (Jacksonville and Buffalo). It’s anyone’s guess to what team shows up this week, but I think Ryan Tannehill continues his trajectory back to status quo and keeps this team close.
I’m also hitting the under here just to be contrarian. 58 is the highest total we’ve seen this year (that I can remember) and it seems a little too obvious that this goes over. Implied score is 31.5-26.5 which is a lot of points for most games. KC has only gone over that in half their games this year and the Titans games have stayed in the low 50’s for the most part.
Pick: Titans +4.5
Cincinnati Bengals +6 .5@ Baltimore Ravens
Admittedly, this is a little scary, but I think that’s what makes a good bet. It shouldn’t seem as obvious as the Cowboys -3 against the 2-4 Pats… those are the ones that get you burned.
The Ravens have won 5 games in a row and just smacked the LA Chargers last week. This will be their 3rd home game in a row, which definitely gives them an advantage, but they are due for a regression game. Interestingly enough, they have covered every other game this season and obviously covered the -3 line last week.
The Bengals are playing really strong football on both sides of the ball. Joe Mixon and Tee Higgins should now be close to 100% and the Ravens remain banged up (and old) at the RB position. Lamar Jackson can only carry this team to so many wins. I see a potential upset coming from the Bengals here, but worst case they keep this game close and cover.
Pick: Bengals +6.5
Kyle’s Week 7 Picks
New York Giants +3 vs Carolina Panthers
For me, this play is all about the number. This game has flipped from Giants as a 3 point favorite on the look ahead line to a 3 point underdog. Granted with injuries mounting things don’t look as good as they did but this move is simply too much.
The Giants were dumptrucked a week ago against a Rams team that could easily be the best in the NFL and not just the NFC. The Panthers, however are not in the same class as the Rams. Carolina is a fine team that is definitely trending in the right direction. The loss of Christian McCaffery has been noticeable and their banged up secondary can be had.
This is also a homecoming of sorts for Sam Darnold who played all of his home games with the New York Jets in this stadium. For Darnold and and the Panthers sake I hope there was an exorcism performed at MetLife Stadium.
The Giants will play well enough despite the injuries to cover the field goal at home.
Pick: Giants +3
Houston Texans +17.5 at Arizona Cardinals
In the hold your nose and take the home team game of the week, we are lining up to back the Texans this week. Despite how terrible Houston, this is simply too many points.
The Texans have shown a few things thus far that give me enough confidence to back them. While they clearly lack the talent to compete week in and week out they show a fight for 4 quarters. They also have playmakers like Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins and Chris Moore who can score quick enough.
From the Arizona perspective, they are just looking to get through this one without any major injuries. The Cardinals have a critiacal matchup on Thursday Night against the Packers. Both teams are rolling and while its early in the season, it sure feels like a game we point to as a deciding factor in home field is decided in the playoffs.
Houston can do enough to keep this game within 3 scores, even if it takes a late score as the kick the back door down.
Pick: Texans +17.5
Los Angeles Rams -16 vs Detroit Lions
While the Detroit Lions have shown fight thus far including finding ways to get back into games against the Vikings and 49ers, this will be simply too much for them this week. In the double revenge game as Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff each face off against their old teams.
HC Sean McVay has not been shy about putting the hurt on other teams as a sizeable favorite. In fact, this is the 4th time he has been a double-digit favorite. The Rams are 3-0 against the spread in those contests. He will also have the opportunity to unveil some magic that Goff could simply not pull off.
The Rams cover this number on Sunday. In fact, I don’t hate looking at alternate spreads to get even more juice.
Pick: Rams -16
Want more picks? Check out The Angle of Pursuit Podcast on YouTube where my co-host Brian Twining and I break down our best bets and player props each and every week.