The CFB DFS season is fully underway as conference play begins across the board! Last week wasn’t so hot with Jalen Mitchell laying an egg, and Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers checking down to his running backs 75 times. Also, turns out Graham Mertz just isn’t good at football. But, hopefully you listened to my podcast. In the night slate segment I offered up a couple of deep cuts at running back that made up for my day sins.
Normal Game Flow
Either way, that’s why they invented Week 5! One thing to keep in mind going forward is that we will now mostly see all teams have a “normal” four quarters of production from teams in conference play. College ain’t the NFL. And, for some teams that means they’re still figuring themselves out.
For example, Georgia really hasn’t had their starters play a full game except for their opening week against Clemson. Additionally, starting quarterback J.T. Daniels sat out the second game against UAB so his reps and chemistry with the starters remains limited. Because of all this, running back and receiver usage and rotations still do not have much clarity. Cincinnati’s receiver and tight end production is also much of an unknown at this point as well. This week should be a good start in making these situations less ambiguous.
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As always, I focus on DraftKings targets each week here on Fake Pigskin. My goal is to identify three to four low-cost/reasonable floor targets as foundational pieces for all my lineups.
This way, you start by boosting your remaining price per player in the range to roster as many high floor/high upside guys who we all anticipate substantial statistical output from.
HERE ARE THE VEGAS ODDS (FAVORITES IN BOLD) FOR THE 12 GAMES INCLUDED IN THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON DK CONTEST:
|[email protected]BAMA 3:30PM ET|||14.5|||77.5|
|[email protected]WAKE 12:30PM ET|||7|||61.5|
|UT@TCU 12:00PM ET|||4.5|||66.5|
|OU@KSU 3:30PM ET|||10.5|||52.5|
|USC@COL 2:00PM ET|||7|||51|
|OSU@RU 3:30PM ET|||15.5|||56.5|
|[email protected]MIZZ 12:00PM ET|||3|||64.5|
|ORE@STAN 3:30PM ET|||8|||59.5|
|MICH@WISC 12:00PM ET|||1|||43.5|
|CINCY@ND 2:30PM ET|||2.5|||51|
|ARK@UGA 12:00PM ET|||18.5|||48.5|
|[email protected]WVU 3:30PM ET|||7.5|||57|
For example, I am not going to come at you with hot suggestions like Bryce Young and Matt Corral. What I will do is point out that rostering the pricey QB duo will leave your average remaining price per player at $5,133. My objective each week will be to offer a reasonable path to affording the best players. Now, let’s find out the best way slide as many Rebels and Elephants into your LUs as possible!
Jaquarii Roberson | WR | $5,200 Wake Forest
This junior wideout routinely demonstrated high upside with monster stat lines in 2020 as the clear top option for quarterback Sam Hartman. That includes this very matchup with the Cardinals when he posted a 9-138-1 line.
Right now, the 2020 performance and early season numbers from abnormal game flow is being improperly excluded from Roberson’s price. Depending on the CFB DFS slate, he usually checked in around the 7k range last year. A blow up game is coming sooner rather than later. And, so is the market price correction. Considering that, his matchup, and Vegas script this is my top price/floor/ceiling combo meal at any position Saturday afternoon.
Jahleel Billingsley | TE | $3,600 Alabama
With all the wide receiver departures to the NFL, this Chicago native was expected to be in line for a breakout in 2021. However, some off season struggles landed him in the Nictator’s doghouse and down the depth chart. Then, in the opener against Miami, it was fellow teammate tight end Cameron Latu scoring twice looking to leave Billingsley in his rear view mirror as TE1 for the Tide. It now appears this was the exact wake up call the dynamic Billingsley needed.
He scored in each of Alabama’s last two games and was Bryce Young’s top receiver against Southern Miss with a 5-105-1 line. Whether he is officially back as TE1 or not, it looks like he’s safely exited Saban’s doghouse. And, anyone with a role in this offense has tremendous CFB DFS upside in a game with a total approaching a whopping 80 points.
Even with all the studs that he had to compete with last season, it was clear Billingsley was a freakish athlete with immense potential. I would even argue that with his elite athleticism, Billingsley really operates closer to a receiver than a tight end so I don’t think Latu’s role necessarily negates his opportunities to produce. I think his floor is safe for 3-4 catches, 50ish yards here. But, it’s the ceiling in a game like this that is crazier than Doctor Foster at a dinner party that could make him the steal of the slate. Regardless, I doubt this price stays this low for long.
CFB DFS Day and Night Podcast Preview
For a full preview, check out my podcast below where I provide my thoughts on EVERY GAME in the slate for the afternoon AND NIGHT contest. It is also available on most major podcast platforms. Don’t forget to download, subscribe, rate, and review. Your support and feedback is greatly appreciated!
Fading Quarterback Chalk
Obviously, we all know it will be difficult not to have at least one QB from the Ole Miss/Alabama game. That said, the Texas/TCU matchup has a solid Vegas projection. Both Casey Thompson and Max Duggan present servicable pivot options that will save some cash.
Digging a bit further, Wake’s Sam Hartman and Missouri’s Connor Bazelak are both at home with friendly matchups. I think they have ceilings this week nearing 30 DK points.
Chalk I Can’t Live Without
Every time I rearrange my lineups, running backs Leddie Brown and TreVeyon Henderson always end up in there somehow. Brown is simply mispriced coming off a quiet performance in a very defensive game against Oklahoma. He’s primed for a YUGE bounce back performance against a Texas Tech team that just had a 70 burger dropped on them.
In the case of Henderson, the 5-Star freshman has transitioned to the clear lead tailback in the Buckeye backfield after erupting for a 24-277-3 line against Tulsa two weeks ago. He should be in line for 20 plus touches each week moving forward. I highly doubt we’ll be seeing him below 7k again. I think both of these guys can absolutely compete for top running back on the CFB DFS board Saturday at relatively modest prices.
Good luck in Week 5! Follow me on twitter @realBobbyAdcock compliments and insults are always welcomed.