Week 15 Milly Maker Plays

MILLYMAKER DOOKIE STACKED

4 teams have implied team totals north of 29 in Week 15. Vegas expects the Jets to get trounced again as -17.5 road dogs. Notable injuries/C19 to monitor include Ronald Jones, A.J. Brown and Marquise Brown. Some of my favorite secondary stacks this week include Woods/Everett/Rams D, Montgomery/Robinson, Hilton/Taylor and Henry/Brown (or Davis). I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing holiday… let’s dig in!

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ. 

QB

Lamar Jackson
Michael Reaves – Getty Images

Lamar Jackson, $7500, Baltimore Ravens

12.6% projected ownership

At 12.6% projected ownership, Jackson comes into Week 15 as the chalkiest player at the position.  Even as it stands, DFSers shouldn’t shy away from the Ravens’ signal caller, given the bounty of options at other positions and the great spot here against the Jags. Jacksonville ranks 31st in Pass DVOA and 24th in Rush DVOA while allowing the 4th most DKPt to both positions (23.8/gm avg and 30/gm avg respectively). With several offensive players, including Marquise Brown, on the C19 list, expect the Ravens to use their best weapon in accruing their massive 30 point implied Vegas team total. Get the Pepto ready, my babies!

Chalk QB:

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Hurts, Mahomes

Also Consider:

Tannehill, Goff, Rivers, Brady, Watson

Fade:

Wilson

RB

Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Gus Edwards, $4400, Baltimore Ravens

1.2% projected ownership

Finding cheap, ancillary pieces that smash value will be the key to taking down the Milly this week. Gus Edwards just may be that overlooked puzzle piece needed to unlock this slate. Given the uncertainty around some of the Ravens’ skill position players as noted above, expect Baltimore to lean more heavily on their running game.  In limited work, Edwards has been quite productive, having scored 3 times in as many games while averaging nearly 7 yds/carry. Edwards is also tied for 8th in inside the 5 rushing attempts (8) and also accounts for 50% of the Ravens rush attempts in this area. The Jags have allowed the 4th most TDs to opposing running backs (12). At just $4400, 80 yards and a TD is in his range of outcomes. Gus Edwards is like the Santa and Reindeer lawn ornaments from Christmas Vacation: to the moon with flames!

Chalk RB:

Henry, Taylor, Akers, Montgomery, Dobbins

Also Consider:

Sanders, Cook, Mostert (like the matchup whoever gets rb touches against DAL), Edwards-Helaire

WR

Getty

Allen Robinson II, $7400, Chicago Bears

7.7% projected ownership

The return of Mitchell Trubisky has actually been a good thing for A-Rob. Since Trubisky has taken back the starting gig in Week 12, Robinson has 33 targets (T2), 272 ReYds (8th) and 3 ReTds (3rd).  This week, the Bears will take on a vulnerable Vikings secondary, who allow the 2nd most ReTd to opposing wideouts and the 5th most DKPt to the position. Keep in mind that this late December game is being played in a dome and that the Bears are 3 point dogs.  I’m projecting him for 25 DKPt for my 150 build.  I guess you might as well call him Allin Robinson!    

Chalk WR:

Woods, Kupp, Aiyuk, Hopkins, 

Also Consider:

Hilton, Ridley, Watkins

TE:

Mandatory Credit :DK Nation

Irv Smith Jr. $3600, Minnesota Vikings

.8% projected ownership

If you’re not able to afford Kelce, I like a few punts this week, including second year pro, Irv Smith Jr. His sub $4000 price tag and .8% projected ownership makes for an intriguing tournament punt. Coming off a performance where he led the team in receiving yards and tied Justin Jefferson for second in receptions, Smith looks to take on a Bears team that allows the 9th most DKPt to the position (13.6 gm/avg).

Chalk TE:

Kelce

Also Consider:

Everett, Andrews, Higbee, Dissly

DST:

LAR, BAL, IND

Let’s Get Weird DST:
SF, CHI

(My preference in that order)

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