NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 14

Welcome to Week Fourteen of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series.  What a week, last week.  We saw the undefeated Steelers lose to a team with no name, we saw the New York Giants travel across the country to beat the Seahawks in Seattle and even Denver gave Kansas City a run for their money on Sunday night!  While we missed on the Seattle game, we did hit with Miami and Minnesota finishing the week at 2-1.  Time to get back to 3-0!  Feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

Last week, there were five division games across the schedule.  Of those five games, four of them were decided by eight points or less.  We saw Chicago lose at home to Detroit by four, the Colts barely beat the Texans who were without their star wide receiver and even the Broncos were neck and neck with the defending Super Bowl Champs.  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
  • Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

While we didn’t get a Thursday night game last week, what we did get on Monday mid-afternoon was so much better.  The 4-7 Washington (input mascot name here) traveled to play the 11-0 Pittsburgh Steelers.  The result?  Comeback player of the year lock, Alex Smith, drove his team down the field for a field goal in the final few minutes and the Washington defense held on for one of the biggest upsets of the season.  You have to love prime time-ish.  Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Rams
  • Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills
  • Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

Sadly, while we had some great prime time and division matchups in Week 13, the home team upsets weren’t as popular.  The Jets came seconds away from being the team to upset a road favorite, but instead, did what the Jets do best.  We will continue to keep an eye on this rule for 2020 but for now I’m still going to play it safe and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears
  • Dallas Cowboys @ Cincinnati Bengals
  • Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
  • Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
  • Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants
  • Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Indianapolis Colts @ Las Vegas Raiders
  • New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles
  • Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Chargers
  • Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Seattle Seahawks over the New York Jets

This is a no brainer, right?  The Seahawks lost a tough game at home last week.  Are they really going to lose two games in a row, both at home?  The Jets are traveling across the country for a late afternoon game.  Also, they are the Jets and clearly are losing on purpose after their showing last week.  Seattle can’t lose, right?  Right?…….

Other options I like this week:

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings barely beat a one win Jacksonville team last week, in Minnesota, needing overtime to secure a three point victory.  Tampa, on the other hand, is coming off their bye week after losing a tough game to Kansas City the week prior.  With playoff hopes on the line, I expect Tampa to come out firing in this one.

  • Tennessee Titans over the Jacksonville Jaguars

With not a lot of options left, we are going with a rule breaker for our second alternative pick.  Yes, this is a division game, and yes, the Titans are on the road.  However, this is a division leader playing a one win opponent.  The Titans lost a tough one last week and I don’t see them dropping two in a row, especially against a team whose best interest is to lose and hope for a Jets victory.

Last Week Record = 2-1

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Season Record = 28-10

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

https://twitter.com/DE_aaron

Thanks for reading!

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