NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 12

Welcome to Week Twelve of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series.  Last week was a tough one.  We missed on both of our eliminator alternates as the Titans came back to win in overtime and the Cowboys scored their game winner with less than two minutes remaining.  Thankfully, we at least hit on our pick of the week so that the entire week wasn’t a wash.  Time to rebound for turkey day!  Feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on Twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

While there weren’t a ton of division games last week, we did get a couple good ones.  On Thursday, we saw Seattle and Arizona go back and forth with Seattle pulling away in the final minutes.  Then on Sunday night, we saw Kansas City narrowly avoid an upset with a touchdown in the final 30 seconds.  With much more division games this week, be careful!  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys
  • Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
  • Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
  • San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
  • Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

What a week for prime time.  Three games, all decided by a touchdown or less.  On Thursday, the Seahawks won by seven, on Sunday, the Chiefs won in the final seconds by four, and then on Monday, the Rams won late with a field goal.  Three prime time games, three nail biters.  Get ready for the best week of the year with three Turkey Day games!  Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions
  • Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys
  • Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
  • Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles

Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

We certainly didn’t see the Jaguars pull off the upset at home, and while the Raiders came close, Kansas City pulled away at the end.  However, we did see some home field advantage pop up in Denver.  In what was the most lopsided bet in Vegas with everyone betting on Miami to cover, they not only didn’t cover the spread, they didn’t even win the game.  Denver announcing that it would be their last game in front of a home crowd, didn’t disappoint their fans and sent the Dolphins packing.  We will continue to keep an eye on this rule for 2020 but for now I’m still going to play it safe and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions
  • Las Vegas Raiders @ Atlanta Falcons
  • New York Giants @ Cincinnati Bengals
  • Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots
  • Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
  • Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
  • New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos
  • Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles

Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • Buffalo Bills over the Los Angeles Chargers

Last week we won with the Chargers, but this week we are going a different way.  While the Chargers were victorious last Sunday, they didn’t exactly put away the Jets like most teams have this season.  This week, they travel on the road to Buffalo, matching up against one of the AFCs hottest teams coming off their bye week.  With Miami on their heels, this is a must win for Buffalo and I don’t think the game will be close.

Other options I like this week:

  •  Cleveland Browns over the Jacksonville Jaguars

While Cleveland might be on the road, this is a matchup where a 7-3 team is playing a 1-9 team.  Jacksonville looked absolutely abysmal last week and with the Browns fighting for a playoff birth in a tight AFC race, they need this game badly.

  • New Orleans Saints over the Denver Broncos

Unfortunately, we have to go with another road team here since we don’t have many other options, but this should be an easy one.  Taysom Hill proved that he can be a very successful temporary replacement for Drew Brees and after the Broncos upset Miami last week, I expect them to fall back to earth this week against a much better defense.

Last Week Record = 1-2

Season Record = 23-9

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

Thanks for reading!


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