Time to Shine or Ride the Pine: Week 6 Start or Sit

Unfortunately, the injury plagued 2020 season continued in Week 5. Dak Prescott suffered a gruesome season ending injury, and Dalvin Cook left Sunday night’s game with a groin issue. The injury news wasn’t all bad as we saw Alex Smith take the field for the first time since 2018. Back to the games, Cleveland beat Indianapolis, for their fourth consecutive victory, and the Raiders defeated the Chiefs at Arrowhead for the first time since 2012. The league’s explosion of offense continued, as 6 games reached 53+ total points. With all these points being scored, my starts had to have done well right? Let’s check.

The Bengals were one of 8 teams not to eclipse 24 points as Joe Burrow and his weapons (Tee Higgins) were held in check. Although he didn’t find the end zone, Houston leaned on David Johnson for a 16-point win against Jacksonville. Devonta Freeman took full advantage of the Cowboys’ Swiss cheese defense, matching my 15.7 fantasy points prediction. Terry McLaurin had a boot put on his wheels against the Rams. Odell didn’t let me down as he put up a mediocre week after a huge game. Let’s ride this successful week into Week 6 Start or Sit!

Time to Shine

David Montgomery (Chi@Car 1pm est)

By all accounts, David Montgomery has been an overall fantasy disappointment. He only has one game over 65 rushing yards and with a measly 9 catches over the first 4 games, it didn’t look good. But sometimes numbers don’t tell the whole truth and that is the case with Monty. He has 3+ targets in every game, with 6 and 8 coming the last two weeks minus Tarik Cohen. His 7 receptions in Week 5 were a career high and with no other threat, this kind of workload should continue. This is fantastic news heading into Week 6 against The Carolina Panthers.

Carolina is allowing 5.4 yards per attempt while also surrendering 8 rushing TDs thus far in 2020. They’re also the WORST defense against opposing RB’s allowing 27.4 fpts/gm and an average of 8.6 receptions/game to the position. The Bears will go Full Monty against this Panthers defense who has the third most missed tackles (49) and just allowed Todd Gurley to put up 100+. David is set to start in Week 6.

Prediction: 17 car 92 yards 1 TD, 5 rec 28 yards: 20.5 pts

D’Andre Swift (Det@Jax 1pm est)

Detroit is well-rested and coming off a narrow defeat to the New Orleans Saints. In that game, Swift saw his largest role since Week 1 and was by far the most effective running back. He accumulated 52 yards with his 8 touches while also scoring the game’s first touchdown. For some unfathomable reason, Matt Patricia continues to feed AP while deploying his best weapon only a handful of times. This should become a more even split backfield going forward, and what a week for this to happen.

His Week 6 opponent, Jacksonville, ranks 29th & 26th in pass and rush yards against while also allowing 29 points/game. In a very winnable game, it would be irresponsible for the Lions not to unleash their 2nd round draft pick. This game is likely a shootout, with both defenses struggling and Vegas setting the total at 54. Even in a change of pace role, Swift will be a key to Detroit’s success this week. The backfield takeover for D’Andre begins this week.

Prediction: 9 car 42 yards 1 TD, 5 rec 27 yards: 15.2 pts

Matt Breida (NYJ@Mia 4:05pm est)

Prior to last Week’s 10 touches, Matt Breida had seen a total of 22 over the first 4 games. That was with the presence of the plodding Jordan Howard, who seems to be the odd man out going forward. In Week 6, Miami gets an extremely favorable matchup versus the Jets where they’re 9 ½ point favorites and should dominate. The good news is that Matt is still averaging 4.9 yards/car and an awesome 8.8 yds/rec on his career. Even in limited touches, Breida can be productive in this matchup. He may clearly be a change of pace back, but he offers some great potential in relief of Myles Gaskin during a week with Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs, and Dalvin Cook on byes or injured.

Prediction: 7 car 31 yards 1 TD, 4 rec 29 yards: 14 pts

Ride the Pine

Noah Fant (Den@NE 1pm est)

This may wind up being a no brainer as Fant is still nursing an ankle injury, but regardless, he’s in for a long day if he suits up. He’s been consistent so far with 5 receptions in 3 of 4 games, and 35 or more receiving yards in all 4, but the issue isn’t his talent. The problem is his matchup in Week 6 against The New England Patriots. 

New England is allowing the 7th least fpts/gm to TE’s at only 5.2 with only 1 touchdown given up. This is a direct reflection of how Bill Belichick led defenses are able to completely shut down opposing teams’ top players. Their numbers against the position are even more impressive knowing they have already faced Mike Gesicki, Darren Waller, and Travis Kelce during the early stages of this season. Noah is a TE1 but in a game he may be inhibited by an injury against the greatest defensive mastermind ever, temper expectations.

Prediction: 4 rec 29 yards: 4.9 pts

Tim Thai/Philadelphia Inquirer
Miles Sanders (Bal@Phi 1pm est)

Miles looked like Barry during a 74-yard touchdown against Pittsburgh in Week 5, on route to an 11-carry for 80 yards and 2 TD day. He showed off the athleticism and dynamic playmaking ability that had us all excited for his 2nd NFL season. His other 10 rushing attempts last week however, had us wondering if he and the Eagles had changed the difficulty setting to Expert. Over these other 10 carries, Sanders was only able to rush for an additional 6 yards as Pittsburgh forced Philadelphia to air it out. 

This same scenario may be duplicated in Week 6 against a Ravens defense who has yet to allow a single rusher to eclipse 72 yards. They’re giving up only 3.7 yds/att and have surrendered just 3 total rushing TDs in 2020. The Eagles have a banged up offensive line, and the Ravens just limited a young but more dangerous Bengals team to three total points. You’re more than likely playing Miles this week but his ceiling is definitely lessened.

Prediction: 14 car 59 yards, 5 rec 35 yards: 11.9 pts

49ers receivers (LAR@SF 8:20pm est)

This is a situation I cannot get far enough away from this week. The 49ers’ passing game outside of George Kittle, is a mess right now with the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position. On top of their own issues, San Fran now faces a Rams defense allowing the 2nd least passing yards (197) and fewest yds/att (4.9) on the season. They have only given up 5 passing TDs with 4 of those coming in a Week 3 loss to Buffalo, and Josh Allen. For the 49ers to strike gold in Week 6, they’ll have to do it on the ground. Find better options in Week 6.

Prediction: Maybe a rushing TD by Deebo or Aiyuk but limited receiving production.

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