NFL Eliminator Challenge: Week 6

Welcome to Week Six of our NFL Eliminator Challenge series.  We hit a milestone last week. For the first time we reached perfection by going 2-0 with our three picks.  The joys of 2020 caused our Patriots selection to not count since the game was moved, but in the games that did happen, both Seattle and Baltimore were victorious.  While it wasn’t what we planned, perfect is still perfect!  Feel free to comment at the bottom or hit me up on Twitter!

Step 1 – Avoid Division Matchups

Our first week back to division matchups certainly didn’t disappoint.  Look no further than the defending Super Bowl champs hosting their rival, the Raiders, in Kansas City.  The victorious Raiders put up 40 points in total and had the leading passer, rusher and receiver in the game.  Who saw that coming?  I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, do yourself a favor and avoid the below division games:

  • Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
  • Washington Football Team @ New York Giants
  • Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
  • New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
  • Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Step 2 – Avoid Marquee Matchups

Two weeks ago, we were given the gift of four prime time games.  Last week, we went from only having three scheduled prime time games, to almost having five, and finally landing on four.  Ignoring the Tuesday blowout that wasn’t originally planned, the three planned games certainly didn’t disappoint.  On Thursday night, we saw Tom Brady get beat by just one point in Chicago.  On Sunday night, we saw Seattle come from behind to win by one point, trying to copy the Bears.  Then on Monday night, the game took overtime before a winner was determined.  It just doesn’t get any better than that!  Unless you want to take a chance, I would avoid the below marquee games:

  • Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
  • Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
  • Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
Step 3 – Avoid Picking Against Home Field Advantage

While this continues to be 50/50, we did see some upsets over the weekend due to favorites traveling on the road.  The Buccaneers are the best example, losing to Chicago, in Chicago.  However, the Colts were also favored on the road and lost to a Browns team that is surprisingly 4-1 but still in third place in their division.  We will continue to keep an eye on this rule for 2020, but for now I’m still going to play it safe and avoid the below games where the favorite is the away team:

  • Baltimore Ravens @ Philadelphia Eagles
  • Detroit Lions @ Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Step 4 – Make your pick!

My pick of the week is:

  • New England Patriots over the Denver Broncos

While New England may only be 2-2, this is a team that only lost to Seattle by five in Seattle, and has beaten both Miami and Las Vegas easily.  This schedule shift also gave the best coach in the NFL an extra week to game plan for a Broncos team that barely beat the Jets not long ago.  Unless Cam somehow doesn’t make it back in time for this game, this should be a slam dunk.

Other options I like this week:

  • Indianapolis Colts over the Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals looked really bad against Baltimore last week.  While Baltimore is a good team, the Colts similarly have a very good defense.  All they need to do this week to win is follow the blue print the Ravens laid out last Sunday.

  • Baltimore Ravens over the Philadelphia Eagles

Yes, we just picked Baltimore, but in case you didn’t, here is another opportunity.  The Eagles tied the Bengals not long ago and based on what Baltimore did last weekend to that same Bengals team, I am expecting deja vu this coming Sunday against the Eagles.

Last Week Record = 2-0

Season Record = 10-4

Follow me on twitter and let me know what you think of this week’s picks @DE_aaron!

Thanks for reading!


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