Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis
Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Welcome to week 4 of 2020 with DEN vs NYJ. This article will focus you on my approach to fantasy football. I use Vegas metrics, defense against the positions, my fantasy sports professor’s rankings (FSPR) and my uncertainty analysis.
See my Snaps Report for week 4 analysis!
DEN vs NYJ Vegas View
Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis. The figure below highlights the Vegas landscape of this game.
- The Game Points are expected to be above average (41 total points)
- DEN is the favorite by a advantage of 3 to 6 points.
- I would bet on the NYJ to win tonight.
- The issue is for me if the DEN QB so bad why does the line not go to the NYJ?
- Are the NYJ so bad that the Vegas Sharps are weighing the facts and predict NYJ can not collect on the DEN QB mistakes?
- Caution for your bankroll!
Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Thursday Night Games always have great uncertainty and these two teams are no exceptions. The DEN QB is a big unknown as well but Crowder for the NYJ is going to play. I see the game low scoring and maybe the last team having the ball wins? The big scorers could be the Defenses for both Teams. Both DEFs are streaming options.
I am using the only players who I have to. I am fading in DFS. This is not a game for gambles.
DEN vs NYJ Defense Against the Positions (DAPs)
Below the Vegas material is my Defense Against the Positions. Positive numbers suggest easy DAPs vs negative numbers mean a tougher DAPs at the position.
Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis. When DEN has the ball, they get an average NFL defense with some Key DAPs. The NYJ DEF is strong against the QB at -19 DAP. This is a tough debut for the rookie Ryplen! It smells like a horror show! Concerns for the DEN WRs vs a -9 DEN WR DAPs! Jeudy is the main hope for DEN passing game.
Additionally, The NYJ are easy to the TE (+3 TE DAPs) and Fant could be the Check-Down Charlie tonight! I also see Gordon getting a nice slate of rushes vs a -7 RB DAP. Freeman could slip in the endzone as well assuming Lindsay is out. DEN needs Lindsay!
This landscape I paint for DEN is shown below. These figures present:
- Positions (DST K QB RB TE and WR)
- FSPR (100 to 0)
- Player Uncertainty Level * High * AVG * Low
- Uncertainty implies the level of expectations are broad to narrow.
- QB is 8.5 FSPR Low UNC (weak)
- RBs are at an average situations and Gordan is my top RB at 82 but Average Uncertainty for his outcomes (gamble). Freeman might score but High UNC situation.
- TE Fant is Low UNC and he is a volume play 10 targets? at 77.9 FSPRs and may collect in check downs as the NYJ DAPs are tougher on QBs.
- WRs are Jeudy as the main show at low UNC at 66 FSPR with 9 targets? Hamler and Patrick might get some PPR catches by 49 and 18 ranked at avg and High UNC. Not pushing these guys into my line-ups.
Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis. When the NYJ has the ball they get a tough rushing environment but easy receiving. Advantage to the passing game. Crowder should collect PPR points vs+17 WR DAPs. I still was conservative in my ranking as a low UNC player but his injury is concerning!
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Also, Darnold should also redeem himself vs a +15 QB DAP with a home field. Gore collects rushing attempts and might slip into the endzone tonight vs a touch -18 RB DAP. Gore may collect if the game script blows up from the DEN QB interceptions and fumbles giving NYJ a short field.
Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis.
- QB is Low Uncertain and ranked at 13.7 and collects a ok game
- Gore is at 56 low UNC and could surprise tonight. Ballage Got 5 targets so he is also a DFS Showdown Contender!
- Herndon is at 46 average UNC and does get a +4 TE DAP.
- The WRs are murky and Crowder has a low ranking of 18.7 low UNC because of the injury. Darnold should also get Berrios in play at 39.5 high UNC. In DFS Berrios could be a surprise. If Crowder is the decoy then Hogan at 33 FSPR high UNC also can collect tonight.