Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis

Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis

Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Welcome to week 4 of 2020 with DEN vs NYJ. This article will focus you on my approach to fantasy football. I use Vegas metrics, defense against the positions, my fantasy sports professor’s rankings (FSPR) and my uncertainty analysis. 

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See my Snaps Report for week 4 analysis! 

Snaps Report for this Week

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DEN vs NYJ Vegas View

Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis. The figure below highlights the Vegas landscape of this game. 

  • The Game Points are expected to be above average (41 total points)
  • DEN is the favorite by a advantage of 3 to 6 points.
  • I would bet on the NYJ to win tonight. 
  • The issue is for me if the DEN QB so bad why does the line not go to the NYJ?
  • Are the NYJ so bad that the Vegas Sharps are weighing the facts and predict NYJ can not collect on the DEN QB mistakes?
  • Caution for your bankroll!

Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Slide7

Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Thursday Night Games always have great uncertainty and these two teams are no exceptions. The DEN QB is a big unknown as well but Crowder for the NYJ is going to play. I see the game low scoring and maybe the last team having the ball wins? The big scorers could be the Defenses for both Teams. Both DEFs are streaming options. 

I am using the only players who I have to. I am fading in DFS. This is not a game for gambles. 

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DEN vs NYJ Defense Against the Positions (DAPs)

Below the Vegas material is my Defense Against the Positions. Positive numbers suggest easy DAPs vs negative numbers mean a tougher DAPs at the position.

Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Slide7

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DEN DAPs

Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis. When DEN has the ball, they get an average NFL defense with some Key DAPs. The NYJ DEF is strong against the QB at -19 DAP. This is a tough debut for the rookie Ryplen! It smells like a horror show! Concerns for the DEN WRs vs a -9 DEN WR DAPs! Jeudy is the main hope for DEN passing game. 

Additionally, The NYJ are easy to the TE (+3 TE DAPs) and Fant could be the Check-Down Charlie tonight! I also see Gordon getting a nice slate of rushes vs a -7 RB DAP. Freeman could slip in the endzone as well assuming Lindsay is out. DEN needs Lindsay! 

DEN Analysis

 This landscape I paint for DEN is shown below. These figures present:

  • Team
  • Positions (DST K QB RB TE and WR)
  • FSPR (100 to 0)
  • Player Uncertainty Level  * High * AVG  * Low
  • Uncertainty implies the level of expectations are broad to narrow. 
  • QB is 8.5 FSPR Low UNC (weak)
  • RBs are at an average situations and Gordan is my top RB at 82 but Average Uncertainty for his outcomes (gamble). Freeman might score but High UNC situation. 
  • TE Fant is Low UNC and he is a volume play 10 targets? at 77.9 FSPRs and may collect in check downs as the NYJ DAPs are tougher on QBs.  
  • WRs are Jeudy as the main show at low UNC at 66 FSPR with 9 targets? Hamler and Patrick might get some PPR catches by 49 and 18 ranked at avg and High UNC. Not pushing these guys into my line-ups. 

Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Slide8

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NYJ DAPs

Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Slide7

Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis. When the NYJ has the ball they get a tough rushing environment but easy receiving. Advantage to the passing game. Crowder should collect PPR points vs+17 WR DAPs. I still was conservative in my ranking as a low UNC player but his injury is concerning!

Also, Darnold should also redeem himself vs a +15 QB DAP with a home field. Gore collects rushing attempts and might slip into the endzone tonight vs a touch -18 RB DAP. Gore may collect if the game script blows up from the DEN QB interceptions and fumbles giving NYJ a short field.

NYJ Analysis

Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis.

  • QB is Low Uncertain and ranked at 13.7 and collects a ok game
  • Gore is at 56 low UNC and could surprise tonight. Ballage Got 5 targets so he is also a DFS Showdown Contender! 
  • Herndon is at 46 average UNC and does get a +4 TE DAP.
  • The WRs are murky and Crowder has a low ranking of 18.7 low UNC because of the injury. Darnold should also get Berrios in play at 39.5 high UNC. In DFS Berrios could be a surprise. If Crowder is the decoy then Hogan at 33 FSPR high UNC also can collect tonight.

Week 4 Thursday Night Game Analysis. Slide9

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