Week 15 Milly Maker Plays

MILLYMAKER DOOKIE STACKED
Ten team totals are already sitting above 25 for Week 15. This could be a very high scoring week! The 49ers, Patriots and Chiefs are all 10-point favorites in their respective contests. The value plays seem to be at wide receiver and quarterback, where lots of top players are out with injury. The weather is seeming like a non-factor outside of some very cold conditions. Let’s dig in!        

*DISCLAIMER: all metrics being referred to are based on this week’s DK main slate of games unless otherwise specified. Also, all projected ownership is based upon Rotogrinders LineupHQ. 

QB

Jimmy Garoppolo, $6100, San Francisco 49ers

7% projected ownership

Jimmy G is the ultimate Milly Maker play for me this week. He’s highly volatile, plays in a good offense, has lower ownership and has a high ceiling in a great matchup.  Since Week 9, Garoppolo has had 3 +30 DKPt outbursts. The 49ers’ 29 implied team total leads the Week 15 slate. The offense is starting to click, as the 49ers rank 7th best at fantasy points earned by the quarterback position. The visiting Falcons, who have nothing left to play for in a lost season, give up the 5th most DKPts to opposing quarterbacks (23.6/gm.)  Pair him with Kittle and count stacks.

Patrick Mahomes, $7100, Kansas City Chiefs

6% projected ownership

Mahomes hasn’t had a ceiling game since Week 10 and his depressed ownership reflects this situation. I want to overweight the field in this situation given the talent, matchup and high implied total. Football Outsiders ranks Mahomes as the 2nd best option, according to their passing DVOA matchup against the Broncos. Over the last month the Broncos have given up the 6th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. 

Kyle Allen, $5400, Carolina Panthers

1% projected ownership

No one seems to be interested in rostering Allen but he’s quietly been a nice fantasy option over the last month. Since Week 12, Allen has averaged 23 DKPts, which is a 4x his salary over this sample. Allen and the Panthers may be playing some catchup as 6 point road dogs in Seattle. The Seahawks are below average against opposing quarterbacks, ranking 12th against the position for the season while allowing 19.9 DKPts/gm. Allen also has a rushing touchdown in back to back games heading into this matchup. 

Chalk QB:

Winston, Tannehill, Watson

Also Consider:

Jones, Wilson, Rodgers

RB

Derrick Henry, $8500, Tennessee Titans

7% projected ownership

So, Henry is 599/7 over the last 4 games, but he’s expected to be 7% rostered? I don’t get it.  His minimal involvement in the passing game on DraftKings is negligible given the fact that he’s a lock for a touchdown and the 100 yard rushing bonus to boot.  I’m unphased by the yellow Q by his player card, as he has played through this nagging injury for weeks. His depressed ownership may also be in part with the fantasy communities interest in Tannehill, which is fine since Henry’s production has coincided with that of the rest of the offense.  Over the last 4 weeks, the Titans rank 2nd in quarterback FPts earned and 3rd in running back FPts earned. Over this same time frame, the Texans allow the 2nd and 3rd most FPts to RB and QB respectively. I’m not opposed to stacking them together in the hopes of Henry taking a screen to the house. 

Austin Ekeler, $6700, Los Angeles Chargers

2% projected ownership

Ekeler made his way onto the Milly Maker winning lineup last week and I think he could very well be there again this week. Passing game usage has buoyed Ekelers’ floor since the return of Melvin Gordon, yet he’s still able to reach a slate-winning ceiling. Coming off a “double double,” Ekeler faces a Vikings defense not known to be weak against the position. However, over the last month, the Vikings surrender the 6th most FPts to running backs while the Chargers rank 1st at the position in FPts earned. With the backfield snaps being split evenly, I remain interested in the more explosive and productive player here, especially on a PPR site. 

Chalk RB:
Carson, Barkley, Mostert

Also Consider:

Chubb, AJ, Washington (if Jacobs misses), Elliott, Lindsay, ROJO

WR

Allen Hurns, $4700, Miami Dolphins

7% projected ownership

The Giants’ already bad secondary gets worse with the departure of slot corner, Jenkins. With the uncertainty surrounding DeVante Parker, we look to the next man up, Allen Hurns. Since his arrival in Miami, Hurns has played on roughly 90% of offensive snaps, second only to Parker. Fitzpatrick continues to force the ball to his receivers with the near-recklessness we’ve grown to love. PFF expects Hurns to see plenty of Deandre Baker who ranks 117/119 graded corners. If Parker sits, I am also intrigued by Isaiah Ford ($3700) who garnered 9 targets last week without Parker. 

Breshad Perriman, $4500, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

6% projected ownership

The theme continues here in taking advantage of value based on opportunity. Perriman slots in as the de facto number 2 option for Winston with Evans being placed on IR. I’m not expecting the Bucs to suddenly feature O.J. Howard because Evans is out either.  The Lions give up the 9th most DKFPts to opposing wide outs (39.3 avg/gm). If we can get a handful of catches and a TD here, he smashes his salary. Don’t forget that Perriman is a former speedy first rounder who never clicked with a Joe Flacco-led Ravens team.  

Chalk WR:

Slayton, Godwin, A.J. Brown, Landry, Kupp, Sanders

Also Consider:

Edelman, Lockett, Chark, Keenan Allen

TE:

George Kittle, $6200, San Francisco 49ers

6% projected ownership

You don’t know how happy I was to see that Kittle’s projected ownership was below 10%. This is a spot where I’m happy to massive position to overweight the rest of the field.  I get it, he’s not playing the Cardinals, but the Falcons have been sneaky bad against opposing tight ends. Over the last month alone, the Falcons give up the 8th most FPts to the position. As Jimmy G’s go to option, Kittle leads the team in MS Touches (25.6%.) 

Also Consider:

Higbee, Hollister, Fant, Njoku (ARI funnel), Engram (if he plays)

DST:

CLE, KC, 49ers, PHI, NE, TB

(My preference in that order)

Please Follow me on Twitter @dookiehogue and good luck this week!

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